Posts Tagged ‘promising careers’

MLB Prospect Profiles: Who Will Follow Stephen Strasburg to the Show?

June 15th, 2010
Stephen Strasburg has lived up to the hype in Washington through his first two starts, but don’t forget about some of the other young stars who have gotten their first taste of the Major Leagues in 2010. Jason Heyward dazzled the Braves out of spring training to earn his spot on the Opening Day roster and Ike Davis has filled in for the Mets' injured Daniel Murphy admirably since getting called up. Mike Leake, Buster Posey, and Mike Stanton also arrived in the Bigs with much fanfare, and all look set to have promising careers full of seven-figure contracts and awards. But who’s next? There are still dozens of talented players down on the farm just waiting for their chance to shine on the biggest stage of all. For some, they might impress so much that the organization can’t hold them back any longer. For others, the big club might want to see how they fare under the most intense media scrutiny and expectations of 30,000 screaming fans. It may even come down to an injury for an everyday starter. Here are the next 10 prospects to keep an eye on who I believe will be called up by Sept. 1.

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That Hurts: MLB Careers Derailed By Injuries

May 31st, 2010
Baseball is a grueling, unforgiving sport. But, injuries are part of the game, right? Tell that to these guys. Here are some recent baseball players whose promising careers (all were first-round draft picks) were either cut short or have become less than glamorous due to injuries. These are the guys you almost have to feel sorry for, as their lack of

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Bob Feller’s Missing Years Helped His Career

January 25th, 2010

The Second World War devastated much of Europe and Asia, and cost millions of lives.  It drew heavily upon the resources of the United States, both in personnel and industrially. 

Major League Baseball was no exception to that.  Many promising careers were cut short: Cecil Travis never again came within 100 points of the .359 he hit in 1941.  Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Warren Spahn, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Greenberg, and many others lost significant portions of their careers. 

Would Warren Spahn have topped 400 wins if he had not missed 1943 through 1945?  It is hard to say, since Spahn had only thrown 15 innings before going off to war.

But one of the most interesting questions concerns Bob Feller, who won 76 games in the three seasons from 1939-41, and was only 23 years old coming into the 1942 season. 

Many have contended that Feller would have been able to post as many as 100 wins from 1942 through 1945, instead of the five he actually tallied, and believe Feller would have wound up with 350 or more wins in his career, instead of the 266 he actually accumulated.

I believe that Feller’s career actually benefited from his military service, and that he would probably have had fewer wins were it not for the enforced absence from the mound. 

Baseball since the end of the deadball era has not been good to pitchers who start as teen-agers, and Feller worked as a young pitcher like no one else since the beginning of the 20th century.

In 1936, the Cleveland Indians brought to the major leagues schoolboy pitching sensation Bob Feller.  Feller was 17 years old when he made his debut on July 19, and he would not turn 18 until after the season ended. 

The Indians were making their rush for the pennant; they were in the midst of a nine-game winning streak that would take them from fifth place to second, but the never got closer than seven games out on July 22. 

They held onto second place into September, but it was a more and more distant thing, and on Sept. 1, second place meant being 17 games out. 

As the season wore down, with nothing to lose, manager Steve O’Neill threw Feller out there on a regular basis, and Feller showed that he had talent.  He could not find the plate, but hitters could not find his fastball. 

Feller struck out 76 men in 62 innings.  The 11 strikeouts per 9 innings was unbelievable in a league in which the average 9 inning game features 3.3 strikeouts, and the official league leader in strikeouts per 9 innings was Tommy Bridges, with 6.1.

Feller was also incredibly wild.  He walked 47 men in those 62 innings, 6.8 per 9 innings. 

They were wild times, though, with the average game featuring 4.0 walks, and Lefty Gomez allowing 5.8 walks per 9 innings to lead the league in wildness.  The best control artist in the American League was Ted Lyons, allowing 2.2 walks per nine innings. 

For a comparison, in 2009 there were 3.3 walks per 9 innings in the American League, and Roy Halliday had the best control, with 1.3 walks per 9 innings, while A.J. Burnett had the worst control, with 4.2 walks per 9 innings.

All those strikeouts and walks meant a lot of pitches for Feller.  The innings alone were unprecedented for a 17-year-old.  Feller was not the first young pitcher, or even the only one in 1936. 

The Philadelphia A’s, reeling from Connie Mack’s deconstruction of the 1929-31 American League champions, lost 100 games and sent 18-year-old Randy Gumpert out to pitch 62 innings. 

Gumpert would go on to play for 10 years in the major leagues, but he threw only 24 more innings in the big leagues before he turned 28.

The Senators had used Reese Diggs for 21 innings in 1934, and that was his entire career.  Other than that, since 1922, only one pitcher who was 18 years old had thrown more than 10 innings:  Mel Harder had tossed 49 innings in 1928. 

Feller followed up his 17-year-old season with a more strenuous workload for his 18-year-old season in 1937. He pitched 148 innings that year, including 150 strikeouts and 106 walks.  Just as Feller had set a new record for most innings by a 17-year-old, he now set the record for most innings by an 18-year-old, breaking the record of Pete Schneider, set in the dead-ball days of 1914, whose 144 innings that year included 62 strikeouts and 56 walks. 

Schneider’s career ended early, finishing by age 23. 

The American League record for an 18 year-old was set in 1922 by Jim Brillheart.  Brillheart’s 120 innings included 47 strikeouts and 72 walks.  Brillheart pitched only 166 more innings in his career. 

In 1938, O’Neill was replaced as Indians manager by Ossie Vitt, a former infielder who had spent a decade playing with Detroit and the Red Sox.  Vitt made Feller the mainstay of his staff, and the 19-year-old threw 277 innings.

Not only did this break the dead-ball era record of previously mentioned Pete Schneider, but he did it in while allowing 208 walks and claiming 240 strikeouts.  He faced 1,248 batters that year.  That means that for better than one of every three batters faced, he had a walk or a strikeout, an enormous burden on a pitcher’s arm. 

To sum up Feller’s career thus far:  It is 1938. He has just completed his third season in the big leagues.  He is 19 years old.  He has pitched 488 innings.  No 19-year-old had thrown so many innings since 1893, when Willie McGill did it.  McGill’s last season was at the age of 22. 

Hall of Famer John Montgomery Ward had thrown 921 innings as a teenager, but that was in 1878 and 1879, and even he was through as a pitcher by the age of 24. 

In the 20th century, the only comparable experience was Pete Schneider, who threw 420 innings as a teenager. 

Since 1920, there have been seven pitchers who threw 200 or more innings as a teenager (counting the age as of June 30).   

Only Feller threw more than 400 innings.  Only Larry Dierker joined Feller with over 300 innings, at 342.  The rest of the list is Mike McCormick, Gary Nolan, Wally Bunker, Dwight Gooden, and David Clyde.

 

                           Missed Years by Age                        Age At Career End

Feller                   age 23-25, most of 26, 35-37                  37

Dierker               much of 20, most of 26, 30                        30

McCormick        most of 23-26, 31-32                                  32

Nolan                  all of 26, most of 25, 29                            29

Bunker                most of 22, 23, 25, 26                              26

Gooden               most of 24, 29, much of 32-35                   35

Clyde                   21-22, most of 20, 24                             24

 

Teen-age pitchers don’t tend to have long or healthy careers.  All of these pitchers were extremely promising when they came up, and put together many great seasons.  Take a look at this, though:

 

                          Record after age 28 season

Feller                  108-79

Dierker                 15-20

McCormick            28-27

Nolan                     4-4

Bunker                  retired

Gooden                40-31

Clyde                     retired

 

Once his teen-age years were over, Feller did not start to pitch less.  He actually pitched more.  In the three seasons he played from ages 20 through 22, he won 76 games, tossing 960 innings, facing 4,013 batters. 

No one since 1920 has thrown as many innings at that age, and since 1900, only Christy Mathewson has topped that number.

When Feller came back from the service, his first full season was 1946.  Manager Lou Boudreau promptly gave Feller the heaviest workload anyone had thrown since Pete Alexander back in 1917. 

Feller hurled 371.1 innings, including 36 complete games in 42 starts, and six relief appearances.  Boudreau did it while the Indians were going 68-86, finishing sixth, 36 games behind Boston.  

On April 17, the team was 2-0, and in first place.  It would never be so far above .500, or in first place again during the season.  It would never see .500 again once May began, and never be above fifth place after April 27.  But Feller almost broke the single-season strikeout record.

Feller’s career rapidly slid downhill after 1946.  His strikeouts per 9 innings dropped from 8.4 to 5.9.  He was never again to strikeout 200 batters in a season. 

In 1948, his hits allowed per 9 innings jumped from 6.9 to 8.2.  He would never again have a season in which his hits allowed per 9 inning were as low as 7.5. the worst total he had recorded previously. After age 28, he would never again have an ERA below 3.00. 

He continued to pitch, but never with the same greatness.  The pitcher who threw 15 shutouts in 1946 and 1947 could only throw 12 in the next nine seasons.

I believe Bob Feller’s arm was damaged by the heavy workload it received as a young pitcher.  Since the end of the deadball era, pitchers who threw many innings as teen-agers have seen their careers plagued by injuries and cut short. 

If Feller had not missed time due to his military service, it is very likely that the loss of effectiveness he suffered following the 1946 season would have set in even earlier, and more severely, and Feller would have wound up his career with even fewer than the 266 wins he racked up.

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Does Brett Anderson Have What It Takes to Become a Top-45 Pitcher?

January 2nd, 2010

Also featured on Rotoprofessor.com !

Remember the days of the Oakland Athletics’ big three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito? While those pitchers have fallen from their elite-statuses due to injuries and under performance, it wasn’t long ago that any of those guys fit the billing of a top-of-the-rotation starter in fantasy leagues.

Now the entire trio has moved on and a flock of new young Athletics’ starters have begun to enter the cusp of what could be promising careers in Oakland.

One of those pitchers, Brett Anderson, may not have as much seasoning at the minor league levels as many of the other top-tier pitching prospects, but thrusting him into the rotation at 21-years-old shows just what the Athletics thought about him. Furthering their belief that Anderson was ready for the big stage was shown through his rookie year statistics:

11 Wins
175 Innings
4.06 ERA
1.28 WHIP
150 Strikeouts (7.70 K/9)
45 Walks (2.31 BB/9)
.317 BABIP

At quick glance, you’d tend to think that the A’s lefty held his own, which was especially more impressive considering he’s pitched just 31 innings above Single-A.

Then you realize that his first three months of major league action comprised of ERA’s of 5.01, 6.38, and 5.00 and the final 4.06 ERA he finished up the season with becomes even more astounding.

Surely, we had to think that it would take at least several months — perhaps even several years — for a young pitcher to become accustomed to life on the big stage. But is it possible that Anderson has already transcended the jitters that haunt young starters at such an early age?

Since Anderson had only thrown 225.1 innings prior to entering the major leagues, it’s fairly obvious that the A’s noticed that they have a pitcher who pitches much more advanced than his age would suggest. Maybe the early season struggles had many wondering if the Athletics rushed him to the majors and that another year in the minors would’ve been appropriate. A 3.36 ERA in the minor leagues, with an even more tidy 2.61 ERA in Double-A must have been enough to show the A’s that he was ready.

After the rocky first few months, Anderson’s ERA plummeted to 1.87 in July, inflated to 4.66 in August, shrunk to 2.28 in September, and shriveled to a 1.80 in his one start in October.

While Anderson was touted as having great control and plus-stuff coming into this season, it may be his progression in the velocity department as the season transpired that should be most intriguing. As Buster Olney of ESPN even noted  back in July, the southpaw’s velocity increased from 91-93 mph when he was drafted to 94-97 at times last season. Even though Fangraphs averaged his fastball at 92.6 mph, the times that I was able to catch the games Anderson pitched in, he was able to pump his fastball at the speeds Olney describes in his piece.

The 4.06 ERA Anderson finished with last season, accompanied with a .317 BABIP, indicates that with some better luck, he could’ve finished with an ERA sub-4. Removing defensive influence from the equation, the 3.69 FIP suggests nearly .4 points off of his ERA would’ve been entirely realistic, as well.

In addition, the 67.0 percent strand-rate — the fifth lowest in the major leagues — describes the fact that he had almost no luck with runners on base. A higher LOB% could result in a few tenths of a run shaved off of an ERA. Next year, I’d expect it to approach the lower-70’s.

While the evidence is there to hint at a continued maturation as a pitcher, Anderson was not devoid of his own red flags. For a pitcher who has started to become known as a power-lefty, he only had one month — his incredible July —  in which his hits allowed were less than his innings pitched.

The most batters Anderson walked in a month was four, which he did twice; and his 2.31 BB/9 rate is encouraging, especially for someone with such limited experience. The high WHIP, therefore, is mostly due to the high number of hits he allows and if history repeats itself, those numbers should decrease ever so slightly as he grows as a major leaguer.

The biggest worry for me in looking at Anderson is his inflated HR/FB rate, which finished up at 11.1 percent for the year. The 34.0 percent of flyballs against shows that if he can manage to limit the long-balls, front-line status shouldn’t be far off. To add, his 50.9 percent groundball rate is applauded, especially for a young pitcher — and would look even better with improved defense behind him.

With that being said, I’m still looking at Brett Anderson as a very solid option in fantasy leagues and an even more coveted pitcher in keeper leagues. The knock on Anderson will be the long-balls and a low win total because of the weak offense behind him.

But I think you could do much worse than a pitcher with good control and excellent stuff. I’d confidently slot him in as a top-45 pitcher in the Professor’s rankings.

What do you guys think? Will you take a chance on Anderson next season? Or do you foresee a sophomore slump?

Make sure to check out our full early rankings:

 

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