Posts Tagged ‘Philadelphia’

Does Changing MLB Managers Midseason Actually Work?

August 20th, 2010

When the Colorado Rockies fired their manager Clint Hurdle last season, the Rockies were 18-28, and had lost seven of their last 10. The Rockies named Jim Tracy as interim manager and he "turned around" the Rockies, guiding the team to a 74-42 record (.638) the rest of the way and into the 2009 NL playoffs.

It is ironic that Hurdle was replaced midseason, because that is how Hurdle got his first managerial job. Buddy Bell was fired 22 games into the 2002 season, and Hurdle was Bell's replacement.

Tracy replaced Hurdle at a point where the Rockies were nine games back of the NL Wild Card, but ended up winning the Wild Card by five games.

What really happened though was Tracy did nothing to help his team win, except to let them play ball. Tracy had the benefit that their best player, Troy Tulowitzki, started hitting, as did the rest of the lineup. And the expected good, young pitching began to perform better.

Tulo hit only .226 for the first two months that year with a dismal .314 SLG. For the final four months, he hit .351 with a .643 SLG. That production helped boost the entire team, and when your big guy is pounding the ball, wins usually come in bunches.

Another factor for Tracy is that he appeared laid back and did not change much; he just let the guys play. That tactic is the positive theme for the majority of good team turnarounds after managerial changes.

Since 1987, there have been 81 midseason managerial changes, one of which was in 1996 when Tommy Lasorda retired as Dodger manager after suffering a heart attack. Of those 80 changes due to firings, only 19 teams played better than .500 baseball after the change was made, some just barely.

This does not include the changes that were made too early or late in the season to have a definitive impact.

And only five teams made the playoffs following that change: the 1988 Boston Red Sox, the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2004 Houston Astros and last year’s Rockies.

Just six percent (5/80) of those teams which switched managers since 1987, made a good enough turn around to make the playoffs. Prior to 1987, there were 183 midseason changes (those not including the first or last 20 games of a season), with about 24 percent improving to a plus .500 team after the change.

Only two teams have made it to the World Series after making a midseason managerial change, the 1978 Yankees and 2003 Marlins. Both times, a more controlling manager was replaced with a more laid-back guy.

In 1978, Billy Martin constantly fought with players and management, and was replaced by a more subdued Bob Lemon. In 2003, Jeff Torborg's hands-on approach was replaced by "let 'em play" Jack McKeon*, who at 72 was the oldest manager to win the World Series.

 

* It is interesting to note that McKeon has replaced THREE different managers after a midseason firing, and all three times has led that team to a BETTER than .500 record. In 1988, Larry Bowe was fired by the San Diego Padres after a 16-30 start, and McKeon came in and lead the Padres to a 67-48 record.

In 1997, Ray Knight was let go by the Cincinnati Reds after a 43-36 start, with McKeon finishing up at 33-30. Finally, in that magical Marlins season, Torborg went 16-22 before being canned and having Trader Jack take over.

Similarly, Steve O'Neill did the same thing for three different teams. And Cito Gaston has turned around the Blue Jays on two separate occasions.

 

Other teams making the World Series were the 1932 and 1938 Chicago Cubs (both obviously lost), the 1981 Kansas City Royals (strike season), the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers (Harvey's Wallbangers) and the 1983 Philadelphia Phillies.

In almost every case, the team changed from a more hands-on guy to a more laid-back guy. But in most cases of a team making the playoffs after a midseason firing, the team was already pretty good.

For example, the Marlins team that McKeon guided to the 2003 World Series was 79-83 the year before but added Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate to guide the young pitchers. Plus, many new faces were on the 2003 team, and McKeon was helped midseason by the call-up of a 20-year-old Miguel Cabrera, fortifying an already decent lineup.

Also, the 1977 Yankees were coming off a prior World Series title in 1977.  The 1988 Red Sox, who were 43-42 under John McNamara, changed to Joe Morgan who led the Sox to a 46-31 record the rest of the way and a playoff berth. Those Red Sox were coming off a down 1987 season, but had made the World Series in 1986.

All other playoff teams were already good, but did need that push of less stress and turmoil in the dugout. However, those teams that flat out stink and change managers, well, they really don't get better. They just stink with a different guy calling the shots.

That just goes to show that good managers are usually a product of their team’s talent. Terry Francona managed four seasons in Philadelphia, but never had a winning record there. He is a flat out genius in Boston, though.

Casey Stengel was a much better manager when he had Mickey Mantle on his team when he managed the Brooklyn Dodgers and Boston Bees in the 1930's and Boston Braves in the 1940's.

Many of the great managers in the game have been fired and then hired midseason to replace someone else. Tony LaRussa and Sparky Anderson were both hired and turned around teams, but LaRussa was also fired, too, in midseason as were most good managers.

So were Jack McKeon and Steve O'Neill, those two guys who turned around three different teams midseason.

I have always thought that stability in the manager’s job is a key to consistent winning baseball. While most new in-season managers last less than four seasons, and most don't even get to keep the job the following year, seven different managers have been hired in midseason and ended up managing that team for 10 plus seasons.

They are John McGraw, Bill Terry, Jimmy Dykes, Earl Weaver, Tom Kelly, Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa. Except for Dykes, all the other managers have multiple pennants under their belts. They may not have won every season, but they did not become terrible managers when they did not win titles, and eventually came back and won titles again.

While good players make good managers, baseball front offices are usually quick to pull a trigger on the manager. As Todd Helton said when Hurdle got fired, "he was the scapegoat, but he didn't give up the big hit while pitching, and he did not strike out with men on base."

Good managers usually cannot make really bad teams better, but some bad managers can win with enormous talent. So far this season, the Baltimore Orioles have performed well under new manager Buck Showalter, but the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks are basically the same teams with different managers. While the Marlins have some bigger stars, namely Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, I believe the Orioles have more overall talent.

Before a GM wants to make a managerial change, he might want to evaluate the on-field talent first. If you are a good team, coming off a winning year or recent title and were thought to challenge again this season, then changing managers might be a good idea. Those teams that made the playoffs after a change are great examples. 

Just have that manager be laid back to just let the players play and not try and do too much. Tracy, Gaston, Lemon and even Jerry Manuel for the 2008 New York Mets and also, do it early enough to give the team time to adjust to the new manager.

But if you are a bad team, and you believe a change in manager will help "spark the team," it might be wise to get some better players.

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Around The Majors

August 20th, 2010

Sorry for the lack o’ posts yesterday. I got home very late and work has been beyond hectic lately. So what I thought I would do is put a couple of posts into one, so I can cover a bunch of topics.

Here are some thoughts on some of the moves that have happened over the last day or two…

 

D-Lee is headed south to the A-T-L

Braves acquire Derrek Lee: With Troy Glaus essentially playing on one leg for the past month, the Atlanta Braves really needed to find an upgrade at first base. Enter Derrek Lee. The Braves acquired Lee from the Chicago Cubs for minor leaguers Robinson Lopez, Jeffrey Lorick, and Tyrelle Harris.

Lee is no longer the offensive force he was just a couple of years ago, but he is batting .313/.356/.583 in the second half with six HR’s and at this point is a definite upgrade over Glaus both offensively and defensively at first.

Lee is currently on the DL with a bad back, but will be activated today by the Braves.

Lopez is probably the best prospect the Cubs acquired. He is a 19-year-old pitcher in High Single-A, who has a fastball in the mid-90′s.

Good acquisition by the Braves, who are clearly going for it all this year and I salute them for that.

Cardinals acquire Pedro Feliz: I guess desperate times call for desperate measures. With David Freese sidelined for the year and with Felipe Lopez hitting just .137 in August, the St. Louis Cardinals went out and got themselves another third baseman.

The Cardinals obtained Pedro Feliz from the Houston Astros for minor league pitcher Dan Carpenter (no relation to Cardinals’ ace Chris). I will say Feliz will be just a warm body for the Cardinals.

Feliz doesn’t do anything particularly well. He doesn’t hit (.221 avg). He doesn’t get on base (.283 OBP). He can’t run (one SB). And he is a below average fielder (-2.8 UZR).

I am really not sure how much Feliz can help the Cardinals if at all.

Carpenter is a fringe pitching prospect, who was the Cardinals’ High Single-A team closer this year. Being 25 and still in High Single-A is never a good sign.

Rockies release Brad Hawpe: What a difference a year makes. Last year Hawpe was an All-Star and hit .285 with 23 HR’s and had a .906 OPS. This year he was released. Amazing.

Hawpe was placed on waivers earlier in the week and when the Colorado Rockies couldn’t find a taker, they just released the 28-year-old from Texas. I would imagine Hawpe would receive quite a bit of interest on the free agent market.

I could see the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, and Minnesota Twins as possible destinations for Hawpe. Last year I wrote a “What’s his trade market?” piece on Hawpe outlining his pros and cons.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @theghostofmlg

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MLB Fantasy Baseball Closing Situations: Looking at the NL East Closers

August 20th, 2010

Over the next week or two I will be taking a division-by-division look at every team’s closer situation.  Who is closing now?  Who is next in line?  Who could get a look down the line?  Let’s kick things off with the NL East:

Atlanta Braves
Closer - Billy Wagner
Waiting in the Wings in 2010 - Takashi Saito
Closer of the Future - Craig Kimbrel

There’s no controversy here, as Wagner has been dominant all season long.  Not only is he sporting a miniscule 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, but he’s posted 72 strikeouts over 51.2 innings.  Saito will get an opportunity now and then, when Wagner needs a rest, but that’s about it. 

Given the age of both Wagner and Saito, Kimbrel is an integral part of the Braves’ future bullpen.  He has been dominant at Triple-A (1.50 ERA, 68 K over 48.0 innings) and in a brief stint in the Major Leagues (1.08 ERA, 15 K over 8.1 innings) this season.  Control could be an issue, but his pure stuff certainly portrays closer ability.


Florida Marlins

Closer - Leo Nunez
Waiting in the Wings in 2010 - Clay Hensley
Closer of the Future - Alejandro Ramos?

Nunez gave up four earned runs over three innings in his first three outings of August, but has been clean for his last three outings (allowing just one walk over three innings) prior to last night.  If Nunez struggles again, Hensley could get a look, but at 30-years old, he’s not likely a long-term solution. 

The fact is, the Marlins don’t have a clear-cut closer of the future.  Single-A closer Alejandro Ramos has posted 26 saves with a 3.83 ERA and 75 Ks over 56.1 innings, but he turns 24 in September, clearly pitching against younger competition.  It’s certainly more likely that they look outside of the organization for a 2011 replacement.

 

New York Mets
Closer - Hisanori Takahashi
Waiting in the Wings - Bobby Parnell
Closer of the Future - Bobby Parnell

It’s quite the void that Francisco Rodriguez and his off-the-field antics have created at the back end of the Mets bullpen.  While Takahashi is currently getting the chance, all signs point to Parnell potentially being a long-term solution for the Mets. 

With K-Rod’s future unknown, look for Parnell, who reportedly was clocked at over 100 mph on the gun last night, to get a look.  He’s well worth stashing, just in case.  Chances are Rodriguez will be back in 2011, but at this point anything is possible.


Philadelphia Phillies

Closer - Brad Lidge
Waiting in the Wings - Ryan Madson
Closer of the Future - Ryan Madson

Brad Lidge is not the closer he once was, but the Phillies continue to lean on him.  He’s pitched just 27.1 innings, with a 4.28 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  Madson is perennially the second in line, when healthy, though both he and Lidge have been on the DL at times this season. 

While he has not always been lights-out when given the chance to close games, Madson has been good, overall, for four years running now.  At 29-years old, it is safe to think that he could be the solution, if given the chance.


Washington Nationals

Closer - Drew Storen
Waiting in the Wings - Tyler Clippard
Closer of the Future - Drew Storen

The deadline deal of Matt Capps allowed the Nationals to get a look at their future closer today.  Drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft, he has been solid thus far.  He’s had one bad outing in August, but he has posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in six appearances (seven innings).  He’s the long-term solution, so take your shot with him.

What are your thoughts on these situations?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

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New York Mets Hope for Better Luck Against MLB-Worst Pittsburgh Pirates

August 19th, 2010

Both the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates will have something to play for as the teams begin a three-game series tonight in Pittsburgh.

The Mets, of course, just want to win two of three in order to win an NL road series. They haven't done that this season, nor have they won consecutive NL road games.

The Pirates just want to win, period. Pittsburgh enters tonight's game with a record of 40-81, the worst mark in the majors. Their next loss will clinch them their 18th consecutive losing season dating back to 1993.

That means the Pirates have lost more games than they have won 18 straight seasons. That's the most consecutive losing seasons in North American sports history. It's really puzzling for a team to not be able to turn things around for that long. The most wins the Pirates have had in this stretch is 79 back in 1997.

It's pretty embarrassing for the Mets to have to win their first NL road series against the Pirates, but they're in a lose-lose situation. If they do win the series, people will tease them. If they lose the series, people will bash them to no end.

The Mets know this may be their only chance to win an NL road series, the way their offense has been playing since the All-Star break. The Mets have now gone 10 straight games since scoring five runs or more.

The last time they did it was in a loss to the Phillies on August 8. In fact in that series in Philadelphia, the Mets lost two games, both while scoring five runs.

The Mets have gone 17 straight games since scoring five runs or more in a win. It's the reason why their manager called their effort last night against Bud Norris "pathetic."

Norris entered the game with a 5.42 ERA, and the Mets collected two hits off him, one being from the pitcher Pat Misch. Things don't look like they're about to change anytime soon.

To kick the series off in Pittsburgh, Mike Pelfrey will be on the mound for the Mets tonight. His last start came on Sunday night at Citi Field in the rain against the Phillies. He allowed three runs in seven innings, but his problem was control and the Phillies running game.

In two of the three innings the Phillies scored, it was followed by stolen bases. He also hit two batters in the game.

After a long rough stretch by Pelfrey, three of his last five starts have been decent. His sinker has had more bite, and his velocity has increased. He and the Mets can only hope for a strong finish to the season.

Pitching for the Pirates will be Jeff Karstens. The former Yankee has had a rough Major League career, with an ERA near five.

He made six straight relief appearances in May, but was reinserted back in the rotation on June 1. He has lost his last seven decisions, to fall from 2-2 to 2-9 on the season.

He had a bad start his last time out on Sunday in Houston. In 5.2 innings pitched, he allowed five runs on seven hits in a Pirates 8-2 loss.

After not starting last night, Carlos Beltran will be back in tonight's lineup. Catcher Rod Barajas came off the DL and started last night as well, but will probably sit in place of Josh Thole tonight.

The Mets need to win tonight to avoid having to win the last two games. The easiest way for them to win a series will be to win the first and third games, although a sweep wouldn't be bad either.

After tonight, the Mets will have Niese and Santana on the mound, so they do have a shot if they can just do a little hitting.

Mike Pelfrey vs. Pittsburgh (career)
1-1, 6.75 ERA, 10.2 IP, 16 hits, 4 BB, 4 SO

Jeff Karstens vs. New York (career)
0-1, 5.27 ERA, 13.2 IP, 17 hits, 3 BB, 6 SO

2009 season series (New York vs. Pittsburgh)
Mets won series 4-3.

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Giants beat Phillies to avoid sweep (AP)

August 19th, 2010
This time, Jonathan Sanchez did his talking on the mound. Sanchez allowed just two hits while pitching into the ninth inning and Buster Posey lined a pair of RBI doubles, leading the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies 5-2 Thursday night. The Giants averted a sweep in a matchup of NL wild-card contenders, stopping their three-game slide and ending the Phillies' four-game winning...