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Why the Red Sox Should Let Adrian Beltre Walk This Winter

August 19th, 2010

Adrian Beltre has been absolutely sensational for the Boston Red Sox this year. That's the thing though; it's been one sensational year. Beltre's track record says he will never have a batting average over .300 or an OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) over .900 ever again.

With an on base percentage of .366, Beltre hasn't been on base this much since 2004 when he had an OBP of .388. His 162 game average is .328. As recently as 2009, Beltre was on base at a clip of .304. He has also had an OPS lower than .800 nine times in his thirteen year career.

Can the Red Sox really count on Beltre to produce this much next year? Quite frankly, the reason he signed here in the first place for such a low salary was to set himself up for a long-term deal at age 31. By rewarding him with an extension, the Sox would be giving him the chance to stop working hard.

The last time Adrian Beltre signed a long-term deal was in 2005. He signed a five-year, $64 million deal with the Seattle Mariners after a career year in which he hit 48 home runs with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004. Looks like the Dodgers made the right decision to let him walk.

That's exactly the approach the Red Sox need to take. Beltre's track record speaks for itself. Have a monstrous season, get paid, stop working hard. After 2004, he was supposed to be in the prime of his career at age 26. Instead, he hit .255 with an OPS of .716 and had just 19 home runs in 156 games.

Beltre's defensive prowess has also been grossly exaggerated. He leads all American League third basemen with 16 errors and it isn't the first time he's led the league in errors. Beltre did the same thing in 2007. Somehow he won one of his two gold gloves that year.

Don't get me wrong. I love Adrian Beltre for everything he's done this year for the Red Sox. He's a very good hitter but his motivation has to be a question moving forward. It appears that he only plays well when there's money on the line. An extension would also leave the Sox with little flexibility in the offseason when Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder will likely hit the trade market. Kevin Youkilis could just slide over to third base if the Sox are able to find a power hitting first baseman.

It's simple: Pay Adrian Beltre and you will pay. Just ask Seattle.

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Posted in Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, MLB, Opinion, Theo Epstein

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August AA Farm Report: Jeremy Jeffress Fresh Off His 100-Game Suspension

August 19th, 2010

From the sensational bat of Jason Kipnis to the absolute domination of Chris Archer, let’s take a quick tour of AA ball. Who will get the promotion to AAA and more importantly how long until they make it the big leagues? 

 

BATTERS

Beau Mills, 1B, Cleveland

AA Line: .231, 8 HR, 61 RBI

The No. 13 overall selection in the 2007 draft has regressed badly in his second season at AA.

Mills, 24, hit .293 with 21 homers and 90 RBI in at the same level in '09, drastically ahead of his current pace. He's hitting an inferior .189 in August, marking his third sub-.200 month. He also posted a .169 April and .162 June.

The left-handed swinging Mills has faced significant struggles against southpaws, batting .203 with only seven extra base hits (one HR) and a 7:25 BB:K ratio. The above splits are staggering coming from a line-drive hitter with a professional approach.

Outside of a .320, five HR, 23 RBI July, he's been downright disappointing. 

 

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland

AA Line: .339, 9 HR, 34 RBI

Mills' teammate in Akron has confronted no such challenges.

Kipnis has been nothing short of sensational since being promoted from the Advanced A Carolina League, raising his batting average .039 points and OPS over .100 points in the Eastern League.

He's batting .377 in August with three HR and 13 RBI. He's an impossible out with runners in scoring position, hitting .417 with a 1.226 OPS. Kipnis has yet to display a weakness at the plate through two minor league seasons and continues to raise the bar at each level of competition.

He's on the fast track to the show, especially as his power continues to develop. 

 

Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati

AA Line: .294, 13 HR, 31 RBI

Mesoraco is the portrait of growth as a ball player in a short period of time.

A year ago he was sputtering in the Florida State League, hitting .228 with limited pop. In 99 games between Advanced A and AA ball in 2010, he has quickly turned the corner.

He's batting .313 with 23 HR and 62 RBI, with an OPS .300 points higher than last season. Mesoraco is torturing left-handed pitching with a .365 BA and five HR in 52 plate appearances. His weaknesses have come with ducks on the pond, hitting just .204 with RISP, a figure that he will need to elevate with experience.

It's time to take notice that Mesoraco is a legitimate catching prospect.

 

Adam Loewen, OF, Toronto

AA Line: .254, 12 HR, 62 RBI

Questioning Loewen's athletic prowess would be an exercise in futility.

The former No. 4 pick in the 2002 draft had his pitching career ripped away by arm injuries, but his future as a position player appears filled with promise.

In his second minor league campaign as a full-time outfielder, the 26-year-old has made massive strides, adding .018 points to his batting average, eight HR and 31 RBI from last season's final totals in Advanced A. He's been wearing out the gaps, hitting 22 doubles in '09 and 27 this season.

As expected, he's still quite raw at the dish. His strikeout total is an exorbitant 119 and his .237 BA against LHP is a work in progress. But Loewen's batting eye and plate discipline give him a solid foundation to work with, already drawing 53 BB. Oh yeah, he's got wheels too, swiping 14 bags.

Can you say a more talented Rick Ankiel? 

 

PITCHERS

Chris Archer, RH SP, Chicago Cubs

AA Line: 7-1, 1.26, 49 K

And to think Archer's numbers in the FSL looked impressive. Holy moley!

His performance through nine AA starts has been, in a word, FREAKISH.

Apparently the step up in class hasn't rattled his cage. I know his ERA is tough to see, but it's there somewhere. He's allowed 32 hits in 50 innings of work for a .185 batting average against, and his groundout-to-airout ratio is 1.66.

The one chink in his armor has been command, walking a whopping 32. When you're that tough to square up, just throw strikes. Nevertheless, despite putting base runners on, he's done a superb job pitching out of trouble.

Archer was stuck on the lower levels for four years, but is still only 21 and it's coming together fast. His fastball sits in the low-mid 90's and his sharp curve is "the pitch".

The Cubs acquired Archer from the Indians as part of the package for Mark DeRosa in '08. 

 

Deolis Guerra, RH SP, Minnesota

AA Line: 2-9, 5.99 ERA, 61 K

Guerra's pitching line is not a misprint.

The once highly-touted Mets farmhand, and centerpiece of the Johan Santana deal, has fallen on rough times.

After a mediocre-at-best '09 season in AA, the Twins moved him up to AAA for the start of '10. He did not reward the team's faith in him, getting hammered in four starts to the tune of a 6.84 ERA and .337 BAA.

The demotion has not aided matters, as he seems flat out lost at sea right now. Opponents in AA are once again hitting over .300 against him and he's surrendered 114 hits in 94-and-two-thirds innings. His lack of confidence is readily apparent in RISP situations, where batters are hitting .364. Escaping trouble is not his forte.

Unfortunately, the positive signs are few and far between. The best news of all is he's only 21, but a young pitcher can only take so much battering. 

 

Jeremy Jeffress, RH SP/RP, Milwaukee

AA Line: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 9 K

After serving a 100-game suspension for failing a second drug test, Jeffress is back pitching in the minors, and back with a bang.

During his first stop in the Midwest League (A) he pitched eight hitless innings, striking out 14 in the process.

He faced some adversity during his eight-game stretch in the FSL, finishing with a 5.40 ERA, but once again whiffed 14 batters in 10 innings. Through nine innings of work in the Southern League, he's yet to surrender a run, allowing four hits and striking out nine.

There was never any denying his talent or rare power arm (upwards of 100 MPH), but his head has always held him back. Has Jeffress turned the page, or is another blip waiting right around the corner?

For baseball's sake, let's hope he's focused on pitching. He's a special one and can be a real quick riser. 

 

Recent Promotions to AA

Danny Espinosa, 2B, Washington; Xavier Avery, OF, Baltimore; Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta; and Randall Delgado, SP, Atlanta.

Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into A, AA, & AAA ball.

Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix

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Posted in Cincinnati Reds, Fantasy, MLB, Minnesota Twins, cleveland indians, milwaukee brewers, toronto blue jays

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Ryan Zimmerman: Can the MVP in the NL Get Some Attention?

August 18th, 2010

The race for Most Valuable Player in the AL looks to be dominated by Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. But what about in the NL?

As you may or may not know (depending on whether you’ve read any of my articles), I’m pretty fond of a stat called "wins above replacement," or WAR. WAR is is a stat that takes a players offensive and defensive numbers and determines how many wins a player has been solely responsible for over a replacement player. Conceivably, we can use this stat to get an idea of who should at least be in the running for NL MVP.

So, after a quick search at Fangraphs, we see the National League’s leaders in WAR. The Top 20 is littered with All-Stars, from Martin Prado to Carlos Gonzalez, Power Padre Adrian Gonzalez to Bespectacled Backstop Brian McCann, and so on.

The Top Five is what’s particularly interesting though.

Fifth is Matt Holliday, who has so far amassed 4.7 WAR (WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat, so a higher number is better). Second through fourth place is a virtual tie between Everyone’s Favorite All-Star Snub Joey Votto, center fielder for the Giants and surprise player of the year Andres Torres, and dual-reigning MVP Albert Pujols, in that order. However, they are separated by only .3 Wins (5.5, 5.4, and 5.2, respectively), so it’s likely that we’ll see some change there. However, this leaves one rather large question-who is first?

The answer is none other than slick-fielding Nationals third basemen Ryan Zimmerman, with 6.0 full Wins to his name. 

Some of you may be rather incredulous. You may be thinking “How can someone be the Most Valuable Player in the league if he wasn’t even an All-Star?” Well, first, I would say remember how we pick All-Stars; that should answer that question (for those who may wonder, Zimmerman’s spot on the roster went to Omar Infante, according to MLB.com, in case you were worried that it wasn’t filled wisely). 

In all seriousness, though, why is Zimmerman calculated as the most valuable player in the league?

Well, if you aren’t quite sure, you may first want to check how well Ryan’s done this season. At 25, the third baseman is having his second career year in a row; 24 home runs, 24 doubles, a .302 average, a .388 on-base percentage, and a .549 slugging percentage. His .937 On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) is third right now, behind only Votto and Pujols. OPS+ is a stat that compares a batter’s OPS to league average to determine how much better he’s been, even accounting for home field differences.

By this measure, Ryan Zimmerman’s posted an 150 OPS+ (meaning he’s been 50% above league average), good for third in the NL, tied with Adrian Gonzalez and behind only Joey Votto (169) and Albert Pujols (166). If you want more traditional measures, Ryan’s eighth in home runs and eleventh in average. He’s even managed to get 68 RBIs (tied for eighteenth), despite playing for a Nationals team that ranks fourteenth in runs and thirteenth in RBIs in the NL.

So, how does he rank above Pujols and Votto, and even Gonzalez in WAR? Well, there are two major reasons. One; WAR accounts for position. The more good hitters there are at one position, the easier it is to replace them. You may notice that Pujols, Votto, and Gonzalez are all first basemen, which just demonstrates the depth of quality first basemen. Basically, they provide a lot of offense, but they do so while playing a position that’s expected to provide a lot of offense. 

Second, however, is his defense. Zimmerman is possibly the best player manning the hot corner this season, according to Ultimate Zone Rating. or UZR. UZR is a fairly complicated defensive stat that is determined by breaking down every play that occurs in a year, and grading a player based on how far the away the ball was, how hard it was hit, and so on (if you want more information, I would recommend this Boston Globe video as a good intro). Zimmerman has the best Ultimate Zone Rating for the year at third, with 12.2 runs saved (his nearest competition, Chase Headley, is at 10.9, followed by Kevin Kouzmanoff with 10.6 and Placido Polanco at 10.2).

So, basically, Zimmerman has the most WAR for the year because his been both a strong defensive player at a difficult position and a major offensive threat at a position that is comparatively weak this season.

Is Zimmerman the National League MVP for the year? WAR is by no means the end-all-be-all, but he definitely deserves some of the MVP talk.

 

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Posted in MLB, Opinion, Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

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Carter’s MLB Power Rankings, August 16: Wainwright New Cy Young Favorite

August 16th, 2010

NOTE: team and player statistics updated through Monday morning, August 16, 11:00 AM CT
 
1. New York Yankees (72-45)
37-20 home record and 617 total runs scored both top the American League.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (71-46)
35-22 road record (best in the majors). Also they have the AL’s best pitching staff, giving up only 449 runs this year.

3. San Diego Padres (69-47)
33-25 road record (best in the National League). They are also the only team in the majors to give up less than less than 400 runs.

4. Minnesota Twins (68-50)
Hottest team in the majors. No other team has won at least eight of their last ten.

5. Texas Rangers (67-49)
Seven of the Rangers’ next 11 games are against teams with a .575 winning percentage or higher. The other four are against the Orioles, who swept the Rangers in Arlington last time the two teams met.

6. Atlanta Braves (67-49)
41-16 home record (best in the majors).

7. St. Louis Cardinals (65-51)
The Cards are having an interesting time with their division rivals these days. They gained the division lead against the Reds but then lost it again while playing the Cubs.

8. Cincinnati Reds (67-51)
576 total runs scored this season (best in the National League).

9. San Francisco Giants (67-52)
By trading for Jose Guillen, the Giants probably did more harm than good. Guillen's past three years on offense have been bad (.256/.307/.419), and he's a liability on defense

10. Boston Red Sox (67-52)
The Red Sox continue to hang around the AL Wild Card race, but the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury makes the climb a slippery one on the Wild Card mountain.

11. Philadelphia Phillies (66-51)
The Phillies starters have a 1.53 ERA and 27-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in their last five games. No surprise they are tied for the NL wild-card lead.

12. Chicago White Sox (65-53)
Since stringing together 27 scoreless appearances, J.J. Putz has allowed eight runs over his last 6 1/3 innings, including back-to-back blown saves. Regression is a harsh mistress.

13. Colorado Rockies (61-56)
My surprise MVP candidate of the year is no doubt Carlos Gonzalez (.321 average, 140 hits, 25 home runs, 79 RBIs).

14. Toronto Blue Jays (62-55)
The Blue Jays have faced the fewest left-handed starters in the majors—going 9-15—but will face three straight against the A's beginning Monday.

15. Oakland Athletics (57-59)
The A's scored 11 runs and hit .209 with 41 strikeouts during their recent 1-5 road trip.

16. New York Mets (58-59)
The Mets go back on the road after going 3-3 in Flushing, scoring nine runs and hitting .088 with RISP on their six-game homestand.

17. Florida Marlins (57-59)
Rookie Mike Stanton, now hitting fifth in the Marlins' lineup, is batting .583 (14-for-24) with five doubles, four homers and eight RBIs on Florida's current road trip

18. Los Angeles Dodgers (60-58)
Since holding the best record in the NL on June 9, the Dodgers are 24-34 and have lost 11 games in the standings to the Padres (35-23).

19. Los Angeles Angels (60-59)
Dan Haren, who has made five starts for the Angels, is now 1-7 in his last 12 outings overall.

20. Detroit Tigers (57-60)
Miguel Cabrera leads the majors in on-base percentage (.433) and OPS (1.063); the way AL clubs have been pitching him lately, he might lead both leagues in intentional walks before long. There’s no way that he shouldn’t be the AL MVP to this point (.341 average, 141 hits, 27 home runs, 95 RBIs).

21. Washington Nationals (51-67)
It's been a tale of two halves for Josh Willingham, who had a .913 OPS before the break and has a .640 OPS since.

22. Milwaukee Brewers (55-64)
Led by Ryan Braun (.458 BA, 1.051 OPS), the Brewers are tied with Houston for the most runs scored in August (78).

23. Chicago Cubs (50-68)
27-32 home record (worst in the National League).

24. Cleveland Indians (49-69)
As the Indians go into extended audition mode, Michael Brantley is hitting .333 in August as the new leadoff man.

25. Houston Astros (51-65)
Rookie of the year rumblings in Houston. Chris Johnson leads the NL in batting average (.420) and RBIs (26) since the All-Star break and is second in OPS (1.125).

26. Arizona Diamondbacks (47-72)
648 total runs given up this season (worst in the majors).

27. Seattle Mariners (46-72)
The only team in the majors that has yet to score 400 runs (383 to be exact).

28. Kansas City Royals (49-69)
The Royals scored just 17 runs on the week, but still managed to split a four-game set with the Yankees thanks to Bryan Bullington, who picked up his first career win by throwing eight shutout innings Sunday.

29. Baltimore Orioles (41-77)
A 24-34 home record and a 13-43 road record both rank in the bottom two in the majors.

30. Pittsburgh Pirates (39-78)
13-48 road record and 401 total runs scored are both in the bottom two in the majors.

Carter’s MLB Award Races:
National League MVP Award Race:
1. Albert Pujols (STL): .315 avg., 137 hits, 30 HR, 86 RBI
2. Carlos Gonzalez (COL): .321 avg., 140 hits, 25 HR, 79 RBI
3. Joey Votto (CIN): .322 avg., 130 hits, 28 HR, 79 RBI
4. Dan Uggla (FLA): .286 avg., 122 hits, 27 HR, 74 RBI
5. Adam Dunn (WSH): .271 avg., 115 hits, 31 HR, 78 RBI
6. Ryan Howard (PHI): .292 avg., 119 hits, 23 HR, 81 RBI
7. Rickie Weeks (MIL): .278 avg., 135 hits, 23 HR, 72 RBI
8. Ryan Zimmerman (WSH): .303 avg., 119 hits, 24 HR, 68 RBI
9. Mark Reynolds (ARZ): .214 avg., 83 hits, 26 HR, 70 RBI
10. Prince Fielder (MIL): .268 avg., 115 hits, 25 HR, 61 RBI

American League MVP Award Race:
1. Miguel Cabrera (DET): .341 avg., 141 hits, 27 HR, 95 RBI
2. Josh Hamilton (TEX): .362 avg., 160 hits, 26 HR, 80 RBI
3. Jose Bautista (TOR): .258 avg., 106 hits, 36 HR, 88 RBI
4. Paul Konerko (CHW): .302 avg., 123 hits, 29 HR, 80 RBI
5. Adrian Beltre (BOS): .328 avg., 146 hits, 22 HR, 80 RBI
6. Mark Teixeira (NYY): .256 avg., 114 hits, 26 HR, 86 RBI
7. David Ortiz (BOS): .261 avg., 97 hits, 26 HR, 77 RBI
8. Nick Swisher (NYY): .294 avg., 126 hits, 22 HR, 67 RBI
9. Carlos Quentin (CHW): .233 avg., 81 hits, 24 HR, 77 RBI
10. Carlos Pena (TB): .212 avg., 75 hits, 23 HR, 68 RBI

National League Cy Young Award Race:
1. Adam Wainwright (STL): 17-6, 1.99 ERA, 158 strikeouts
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL): 17-3, 2.59 ERA, 153 strikeouts
3. Josh Johnson (FLA): 10-5, 2.27 ERA, 156 strikeouts
4. Roy Halladay (PHI): 15-8, 2.24 ERA, 175 strikeouts
5. Tim Hudson (ATL): 14-5, 2.13 ERA, 89 strikeouts
6. Mat Latos (SD): 12-5, 2.32 ERA, 134 strikeouts
7. Chris Carpenter (STL): 13-4, 2.95 ERA, 139 strikeouts
8. Yovani Gallardo (MIL): 11-5, 2.97 ERA, 154 strikeouts
9. Jaime Garcia (STL): 10-5, 2.71 ERA, 99 strikeouts
10. Johan Santana (WSH): 10-6, 2.89 ERA, 121 strikeouts

American League Cy Young Award Race:
1. Cliff Lee (TEX): 10-5, 2.57 ERA, 137 strikeouts
2. Clay Buchholz (BOS): 13-5, 2.49 ERA, 86 strikeouts
3. Felix Hernandez (SEA): 8-10, 2.62 ERA, 172 strikeouts
4. Jon Lester (BOS): 13-7, 2.80 ERA, 165 strikeouts
5. Jeff Niemann (TB): 10-3, 3.12 ERA 102 strikeouts
6. Trevor Cahill (OAK): 12-5, 2.50 ERA, 81 strikeouts
7. Jered Weaver (LAA): 11-7, 2.87 ERA, 182 strikeouts
8. C.C. Sabathia (NYY): 15-5, 3.14 ERA, 134 strikeouts
9. David Price (TB): 15-5, 2.84 ERA, 133 strikeouts
10. Jason Vargas (SEA): 9-5, 3.15 ERA, 92 strikeouts
 
National League Rookie of the Year Race:
1. Jaime Garcia (STL): 10-5, 2.71 ERA, 99 strikeouts
2. Gaby Sanchez (FLA): .289 avg., 121 hits, 12 HR, 53 RBI
3. Starlin Castro (CHC): .314 avg., 101 hits, 3 HR, 37 RBI
4. Ian Desmond (WSH): .266 avg., 97 hits, 9 HR, 49 RBI
5. Alcides Escobar (MIL): .251 avg., 97 hits, 3 HR, 33 RBI

American League Rookie of the Year Race:
1. Austin Jackson (DET): .303 avg., 132 hits, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2. Neftali Feliz (TEX): 3-3, 3.48 ERA, 53 strikeouts, 29 saves
3. Brennan Boesch (DET): .274 avg., 96 hits, 14 HR, 55 RBI
4. John Jaso (TB): .270 avg., 65 hits, 3 HR, 36 RBI
5. Reid Brignac (TB): .259 avg., 64 hits, 6 HR, 36 RBI

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New York Yankees Notes: Recap, Jesus Montero and Melky Mesa

August 13th, 2010

The Yankees were facing the Royals with CC Sabathia on the mound, so you knew it was going to be a good night, and it was, as the Yankees got a good start and just enough offense to win 4-3.

Here are some notes:

  • Curtis Granderson went 2-for-3 on his first day back since restructuring his swing.
  • Austin Kearns hit his first homer as a Yankee and his ninth of the season.
  • This is the first time Sabathia picked up 15 wins by his 25th start in his career. He’s going for 20.
  • Nick Swisher went 3-for-4, but had to be lifted late in the game because of the extreme heat.
  • Jesus Montero was named Triple-A International League Player of the Month for July. His numbers: 23 G, .342 BA, .441 OBP, 1.072 OPS, and five HR.
  • So far, Montero’s August has been even better: nine G, .441 BA, .513 OBP, 1.307 OPS, and three HR.
  • Melky Mesa, High-A OF, won Player of the Week honors.

With a good start to the series last night, I’d really like to see the Yankees sweep what should be an easy series. They have Dustin Moseley (2-1, 3.86) going against Kyle Davies (5-7, 5.21). Moseley has been good, but hopefully the offense shows up to help him out tonight.

 

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Posted in AL East, Curtis Granderson, MLB, Nick Swisher, austin kearns, jesus montero, new york yankees

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