Posts Tagged ‘Miguel Cabrera’

Does Changing MLB Managers Midseason Actually Work?

August 20th, 2010

When the Colorado Rockies fired their manager Clint Hurdle last season, the Rockies were 18-28, and had lost seven of their last 10. The Rockies named Jim Tracy as interim manager and he "turned around" the Rockies, guiding the team to a 74-42 record (.638) the rest of the way and into the 2009 NL playoffs.

It is ironic that Hurdle was replaced midseason, because that is how Hurdle got his first managerial job. Buddy Bell was fired 22 games into the 2002 season, and Hurdle was Bell's replacement.

Tracy replaced Hurdle at a point where the Rockies were nine games back of the NL Wild Card, but ended up winning the Wild Card by five games.

What really happened though was Tracy did nothing to help his team win, except to let them play ball. Tracy had the benefit that their best player, Troy Tulowitzki, started hitting, as did the rest of the lineup. And the expected good, young pitching began to perform better.

Tulo hit only .226 for the first two months that year with a dismal .314 SLG. For the final four months, he hit .351 with a .643 SLG. That production helped boost the entire team, and when your big guy is pounding the ball, wins usually come in bunches.

Another factor for Tracy is that he appeared laid back and did not change much; he just let the guys play. That tactic is the positive theme for the majority of good team turnarounds after managerial changes.

Since 1987, there have been 81 midseason managerial changes, one of which was in 1996 when Tommy Lasorda retired as Dodger manager after suffering a heart attack. Of those 80 changes due to firings, only 19 teams played better than .500 baseball after the change was made, some just barely.

This does not include the changes that were made too early or late in the season to have a definitive impact.

And only five teams made the playoffs following that change: the 1988 Boston Red Sox, the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2004 Houston Astros and last year’s Rockies.

Just six percent (5/80) of those teams which switched managers since 1987, made a good enough turn around to make the playoffs. Prior to 1987, there were 183 midseason changes (those not including the first or last 20 games of a season), with about 24 percent improving to a plus .500 team after the change.

Only two teams have made it to the World Series after making a midseason managerial change, the 1978 Yankees and 2003 Marlins. Both times, a more controlling manager was replaced with a more laid-back guy.

In 1978, Billy Martin constantly fought with players and management, and was replaced by a more subdued Bob Lemon. In 2003, Jeff Torborg's hands-on approach was replaced by "let 'em play" Jack McKeon*, who at 72 was the oldest manager to win the World Series.

 

* It is interesting to note that McKeon has replaced THREE different managers after a midseason firing, and all three times has led that team to a BETTER than .500 record. In 1988, Larry Bowe was fired by the San Diego Padres after a 16-30 start, and McKeon came in and lead the Padres to a 67-48 record.

In 1997, Ray Knight was let go by the Cincinnati Reds after a 43-36 start, with McKeon finishing up at 33-30. Finally, in that magical Marlins season, Torborg went 16-22 before being canned and having Trader Jack take over.

Similarly, Steve O'Neill did the same thing for three different teams. And Cito Gaston has turned around the Blue Jays on two separate occasions.

 

Other teams making the World Series were the 1932 and 1938 Chicago Cubs (both obviously lost), the 1981 Kansas City Royals (strike season), the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers (Harvey's Wallbangers) and the 1983 Philadelphia Phillies.

In almost every case, the team changed from a more hands-on guy to a more laid-back guy. But in most cases of a team making the playoffs after a midseason firing, the team was already pretty good.

For example, the Marlins team that McKeon guided to the 2003 World Series was 79-83 the year before but added Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate to guide the young pitchers. Plus, many new faces were on the 2003 team, and McKeon was helped midseason by the call-up of a 20-year-old Miguel Cabrera, fortifying an already decent lineup.

Also, the 1977 Yankees were coming off a prior World Series title in 1977.  The 1988 Red Sox, who were 43-42 under John McNamara, changed to Joe Morgan who led the Sox to a 46-31 record the rest of the way and a playoff berth. Those Red Sox were coming off a down 1987 season, but had made the World Series in 1986.

All other playoff teams were already good, but did need that push of less stress and turmoil in the dugout. However, those teams that flat out stink and change managers, well, they really don't get better. They just stink with a different guy calling the shots.

That just goes to show that good managers are usually a product of their team’s talent. Terry Francona managed four seasons in Philadelphia, but never had a winning record there. He is a flat out genius in Boston, though.

Casey Stengel was a much better manager when he had Mickey Mantle on his team when he managed the Brooklyn Dodgers and Boston Bees in the 1930's and Boston Braves in the 1940's.

Many of the great managers in the game have been fired and then hired midseason to replace someone else. Tony LaRussa and Sparky Anderson were both hired and turned around teams, but LaRussa was also fired, too, in midseason as were most good managers.

So were Jack McKeon and Steve O'Neill, those two guys who turned around three different teams midseason.

I have always thought that stability in the manager’s job is a key to consistent winning baseball. While most new in-season managers last less than four seasons, and most don't even get to keep the job the following year, seven different managers have been hired in midseason and ended up managing that team for 10 plus seasons.

They are John McGraw, Bill Terry, Jimmy Dykes, Earl Weaver, Tom Kelly, Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa. Except for Dykes, all the other managers have multiple pennants under their belts. They may not have won every season, but they did not become terrible managers when they did not win titles, and eventually came back and won titles again.

While good players make good managers, baseball front offices are usually quick to pull a trigger on the manager. As Todd Helton said when Hurdle got fired, "he was the scapegoat, but he didn't give up the big hit while pitching, and he did not strike out with men on base."

Good managers usually cannot make really bad teams better, but some bad managers can win with enormous talent. So far this season, the Baltimore Orioles have performed well under new manager Buck Showalter, but the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks are basically the same teams with different managers. While the Marlins have some bigger stars, namely Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, I believe the Orioles have more overall talent.

Before a GM wants to make a managerial change, he might want to evaluate the on-field talent first. If you are a good team, coming off a winning year or recent title and were thought to challenge again this season, then changing managers might be a good idea. Those teams that made the playoffs after a change are great examples. 

Just have that manager be laid back to just let the players play and not try and do too much. Tracy, Gaston, Lemon and even Jerry Manuel for the 2008 New York Mets and also, do it early enough to give the team time to adjust to the new manager.

But if you are a bad team, and you believe a change in manager will help "spark the team," it might be wise to get some better players.

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Roger Clemens Indictment: Remembering the 2003 World Series

August 20th, 2010

Roger Clemens hyped it as his final game as a Major Leaguer.

The New York Yankees were playing the Florida Marlins in Game Four of the 2003 World Series.

Florida trailed the series 2-1 and looked to starter Carl Pavano to even things up.

In front of an international audience Clemens gave up a two-run opposite field homer to rookie Miguel Cabrera. Derrek Lee followed with an RBI single. Clemens then settled down to pitch six scoreless innings.

As he struck out Luis Castillo to end the seventh, the crowd of 60,000-plus fans at Pro Player Stadium gave the future Hall of Famer a standing ovation. So did the Marlins dugout.

Seven years ago the right-handed pitcher was loved and respected.

When he decided to come back the following year with the Houston Astros, it was just another elite athlete postponing retirement.

But for a ninth inning rally by the Yankees, Clemens would've lost his final game, but Ruben Sierra bailed him out with an RBI triple. 

With a maximum penalty of 30 years, the seven-time Cy Young Winner could face jail time for allegedly lying about taking steroids or HGH to Congress in 2008. 

This time none of his former teammates can come to his rescue. 

Clemens is on his own now. 

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New York Yankees Back in the Groove, Finally Win Series in August

August 19th, 2010

The Yankees concluded a four game series against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday, winning 11-5, and thus winning their first series in the month of August.

Phil Hughes looked shaky early on, surrendering a two run home run to Miguel Cabrera in the first inning, but that would be all the damage he would allow, retiring 11 straight batters to end his day.

Sergio Mitre was not as effective as he has been recently, allowing three runs in his three innings to close out the game, but he did earn his first career save today.

The Yankee offense was the real story of the day, erupting for 11 runs on 11 hits and five walks.

Robinson Cano led the charge, going 3-5 with three RBI and three runs scored, and fell a triple shy of the cycle, he has also hit a home run in three straight games now.

With Lance Berkman on the DL, Austin Kearns took over the DH role today, going 2-4 with two RBIs.

Most of the damage was done in the sixth inning, which saw nine runs cross the plate and 13 batters step in the box.

I think that this series was really what the Yankees needed to get back on track, a sweep would have been perfect but winning the series is really what it's all about.

This series was almost a must-win for the Yanks, as the Rays and Red Sox are getting stronger and neither one of them seem to be fading at all, so three wins here was big as it looks like the AL East will come down to the wire this year, as it has so many times in the past.

Winners of three games in a row now, the Yankees welcome the Seattle Mariners to the Bronx Friday night, a series which the Bombers should also win, considering how bad the Mariners are this year, and the fact that they don't have Cliff Lee anymore helps as well.

 

Noteworthy: Lance Berkman was placed on the 15 day DL and shortstop Eduardo Nunez was called up from Scranton/Wilkes Barre, Nunez popped out to the catcher in his first major league at bat, Phil Hughes improved to 15-5 on the year and is tied for second place in wins, Jorge Posada passed Thurman Munson for 17th on the all-time Yankees hit list with 1,559 career hits.

 

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Nine-Run Sixth Inning Powers New York Yankees Past Detroit Tigers

August 19th, 2010

After only scoring one run in the series opener on Monday, New York had no problem scoring against Detroit pitching in the final three games.

The Yankees used a nine-run sixth inning Thursday afternoon to break open a close game en route to an 11-5 win over the Tigers at Yankee Stadium.

New York took three of four from the Tigers and improved to a season-high 29 games over .500. Detroit pitching allowed 27 runs in the four-game series.

Miguel Cabrera continued his assault on Yankee pitching in the top of the first. With a runner at first and two outs, Cabrera homered off Yankees starter Phil Hughes to give the Tigers an early lead. It was his fourth home run of the four-game series and his 31st of the season.

After being held hitless over the first three innings, the Yankees got on the scoreboard in the bottom of the fourth. With one out, Teixeira and Cano singled. Swisher followed with a run-scoring single to center field on a 3-0 pitch. After Posada flied out to deep left, Granderson delivered an RBI single to tie the game at two.

With the game tied at two in the bottom of the sixth, the Yankees used an offensive explosion to run away with the game. Mark Teixeira led off with a walk and scored on Robinson Cano’s RBI double to left-center. After Nick Swisher walked, Jorge Posada swung at a 3-0 pitch and delivered a run-scoring single to score Cano from second to give the Yankees a 4-2 advantage.

Daniel Schlereth relieved Tigers starter Rick Porcello and walked Curtis Granderson, the only batter he faced. With the bases loaded and still no outs, Austin Kearns greeted new pitcher Robbie Weinhardt with a two-run double to deep center field. After one out, Brett Gardner walked, but ball four eluded Tigers catcher Alex Avila, allowing Granderson to score from third.

Derek Jeter continued the sixth inning scoring spree with a two-run triple to center field. Cano, batting for the second time in the inning, capped off the nine-run inning with his 24th home run of the season to give New York an 11-2 lead. Cano finished the game 3-for-5 with three RBI.

 

After New York’s nine-run sixth inning, Detroit answered with a pair of runs in the top of the seventh off of reliever Sergio Mitre. Jhonny Peralta hit a solo home run with one out and Austin Jackson added an RBI single up the middle with two outs to cut the Yankees lead to 11-4. The Tigers added another run in the top of the eighth on Brennan Boesch’s RBI single.

Despite allowing a home run to Cabrera in the first, Hughes (15-5) became the fourth American League pitcher to win 15 games this season. He allowed two runs on four hits with six strikeouts over six innings. Hughes won his second consecutive start for the first time since winning five straight from May 28 to June 19. Mitre allowed three runs on six hits in three innings of relief but was credited with his first save of the season.

Porcello (5-11) held the Yankees hitless over the first 3.1 innings before falling apart in the sixth. He allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits with two strikeouts and three walks over five innings.

New York will open a three-game series against Seattle on Friday at Yankee Stadium. Felix Hernandez (8-10, 2.62), who has two complete game victories over the Yankees this season, will start for the Mariners. A.J. Burnett (9-10, 4.66) will take the mound for the Yankees. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET.

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Push It To The Limit: Why Marlins Should Cut Ties With Cody Ross

August 19th, 2010

Entering his final year of arbitration this offseason, Cody Ross is looking at what could be his final year with the Marlins in 2011. Yet many obstacles stand in his way for him to simply return for his fifth season with the Fish. 

First, Ross is having a down year by power standards. He has only belted 10 out of major league ballparks this season versus 24 in 2009, 22 in 2008, and 12 in 66 games in 2007.

Second, Cody Ross is costly for the budget-strict Florida Marlins. Ross is earning $4.4 million this season and figures to earn at least $5 million in arbitration. The Marlins would figure to win any case if Ross demands more than $5 million because Ross has had a down year yet that would expensive because the Marlins are trying to extend second baseman Dan Uggla and pitcher Ricky Nolasco this offseason with Anibal Sanchez and Michael Stanton on the contract horizon.  

The Marlins also have to have their "center-fielder in waiting" Cameron Maybin on their 25-man roster next season or he'll have to be placed on waivers first before heading down to the minor leagues. Simply put, Maybin is out of options come next season. 

Maybin has struggled in the majors but has impressed in the minor leagues this season. Thru 30 games at (AAA) New Orleans, Maybin has hit .342 with three home runs, 21 RBIs to go along with five stolen bases. The true test will be during September when Maybin is called up to the majors for the third consecutive season when rosters expand to 40. If Maybin plays well, Ross might find himself out. 

If Ross had his usual season, would this still be the question? Maybe, because the Marlins' only benefit of the Miguel Cabrera deal has been long reliever Burke Badenhop. Andrew Miller has lost his control like the other pitcher in the deal, Dontrelle Willis. Yet despite his horrid minor league numbers, 2-9, 5.35 ERA, is getting called back up for relief help.

The Marlins would certainly want to give Maybin a shot to fully develop being the most attractive part of that deal. Cameron Maybin is only 23-years-of-age so he still has time. 

Yet, at the end, the Marlins would be able to trade either player because they are under club control. Cody Ross might fetch more value because he is a veteran major-leaguer. The Marlins might pull off a similar deal when they traded Mike Jacobs to the Royals for Leo Nunez. The objective would be to get a bullpen arm or two in any deal. 

If I were Larry Beinfest or Michael Hill I would trade the fan favorite Ross while you can get value and take a chance with Maybin. If he doesn't pan out, you still have Emilo Bonifacio and then Christian Yelich in a few years.

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