Posts Tagged ‘Major Leagues’

MLB Fantasy Baseball Closing Situations: Looking at the NL East Closers

August 20th, 2010

Over the next week or two I will be taking a division-by-division look at every team’s closer situation.  Who is closing now?  Who is next in line?  Who could get a look down the line?  Let’s kick things off with the NL East:

Atlanta Braves
Closer - Billy Wagner
Waiting in the Wings in 2010 - Takashi Saito
Closer of the Future - Craig Kimbrel

There’s no controversy here, as Wagner has been dominant all season long.  Not only is he sporting a miniscule 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, but he’s posted 72 strikeouts over 51.2 innings.  Saito will get an opportunity now and then, when Wagner needs a rest, but that’s about it. 

Given the age of both Wagner and Saito, Kimbrel is an integral part of the Braves’ future bullpen.  He has been dominant at Triple-A (1.50 ERA, 68 K over 48.0 innings) and in a brief stint in the Major Leagues (1.08 ERA, 15 K over 8.1 innings) this season.  Control could be an issue, but his pure stuff certainly portrays closer ability.


Florida Marlins

Closer - Leo Nunez
Waiting in the Wings in 2010 - Clay Hensley
Closer of the Future - Alejandro Ramos?

Nunez gave up four earned runs over three innings in his first three outings of August, but has been clean for his last three outings (allowing just one walk over three innings) prior to last night.  If Nunez struggles again, Hensley could get a look, but at 30-years old, he’s not likely a long-term solution. 

The fact is, the Marlins don’t have a clear-cut closer of the future.  Single-A closer Alejandro Ramos has posted 26 saves with a 3.83 ERA and 75 Ks over 56.1 innings, but he turns 24 in September, clearly pitching against younger competition.  It’s certainly more likely that they look outside of the organization for a 2011 replacement.

 

New York Mets
Closer - Hisanori Takahashi
Waiting in the Wings - Bobby Parnell
Closer of the Future - Bobby Parnell

It’s quite the void that Francisco Rodriguez and his off-the-field antics have created at the back end of the Mets bullpen.  While Takahashi is currently getting the chance, all signs point to Parnell potentially being a long-term solution for the Mets. 

With K-Rod’s future unknown, look for Parnell, who reportedly was clocked at over 100 mph on the gun last night, to get a look.  He’s well worth stashing, just in case.  Chances are Rodriguez will be back in 2011, but at this point anything is possible.


Philadelphia Phillies

Closer - Brad Lidge
Waiting in the Wings - Ryan Madson
Closer of the Future - Ryan Madson

Brad Lidge is not the closer he once was, but the Phillies continue to lean on him.  He’s pitched just 27.1 innings, with a 4.28 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  Madson is perennially the second in line, when healthy, though both he and Lidge have been on the DL at times this season. 

While he has not always been lights-out when given the chance to close games, Madson has been good, overall, for four years running now.  At 29-years old, it is safe to think that he could be the solution, if given the chance.


Washington Nationals

Closer - Drew Storen
Waiting in the Wings - Tyler Clippard
Closer of the Future - Drew Storen

The deadline deal of Matt Capps allowed the Nationals to get a look at their future closer today.  Drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft, he has been solid thus far.  He’s had one bad outing in August, but he has posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in six appearances (seven innings).  He’s the long-term solution, so take your shot with him.

What are your thoughts on these situations?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

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Brian Fuentes Should Remain a Los Angeles Angel

August 18th, 2010

In 2009, Brian Fuentes led the Major Leagues in saves with 48. Granted, they weren't all pretty and Angel fans still remember the fastball that Alex Rodriguez belted out of Yankee Stadium in the '09 ALCS; but overall Fuentes has been a solid closer for the Angels.

Just one season later, with the Angels at a mediocre 60-61, Fuentes has just 23 saves. He also has finished just 31 games in 2010. Fuentes contract includes a vesting option for 2011 if he finishes 55 games.

With just 41 games remaining, a lackluster offense and relievers setting him up who are not getting the job done it seems Fuentes is headed towards free agency. With an ERA presently at 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.16, plus being left handed he is likely to have quite a few suitors.

So in the offseason of 2011, not only will the Angels have to take a hard look at upgrading their core of set up men, they may also need a new closer. Those returning next season the Angels are going to have to right their ship or the 2011 club may have the same bullpen issues they do in 2010.

Click here to continue Brian Fuentes Should Remain an Angel

Eric Denton is the head writer and content editor for LA Angels Insider.com

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Let’s Hear It for Bryce Harper: The Nationals Have Too Much Talent

August 17th, 2010

For all the talk and hype of the over-exposed phenom, upon the ultimate presumption of Bryce Harper, the No. 1 overall selection in the 2010 MLB Draft, it was the Washington Nationals birthright to reasonably offer baseball’s next megastar millions.

In the nation’s capital, the most complicated signing wasn’t poetic or plausible, even if he’s deemed the “Chosen One” and the "Most Exciting Prodigy Since LeBron,” a publicity gimmick featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated not long ago.

If each party had failed to reach a consensus deal before the clock struck midnight, it would have slightly been the most stunning development in baseball history.

By the time baseball’s amateur signing deadline loomed ever so closer, Harper and the Nationals reached an agreement on a fittingly $9.9 million, five-year deal. And finally, he agreed to terms on a contract, avoiding re-entry into the 2011 draft.

He rightfully benefits from a franchise that is aiming to improve by building a legitimate force around the rookie sensation and No. 1 draft choice from 2009, Stephen Strasburg, who accepted a record-breaking $15.1 million, four-year contract a year ago.

The anonymity continuously added to the possibility of losing out on the rights of the biggest name to generate such widespread consideration, and the near-casualties almost cost the franchise, but the Nationals were fortunate enough to land the considerably talented prospects.

Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo pulled off a miracle as the clock almost struck midnight and offered Harper a comfortable deal. The diplomacy has empowered Rizzo to somehow urge the stubborn agent Scott Boras.

In the end of all the intense conversations, the two negotiators eventually finalized a contract before deadline. Rizzo aggressively bid for Harper, who is compared to Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez for his abilities to connect in one swing and deposit homers.

If the folks residing in the nation’s capital are really fortunate to witness and anoint the high-profile stars, then it’s easy to say that baseball emerges as a relevant theme in a town where the game was very uneventful.

But the arrival of Strasburg uplifted the fans curiosity at National Park, urging a crowd to fill in the stands at the hottest venue, and adore the magnetic star. His impressive debut in Washington defined a convincing performance.

In a short time span, he’s growing as a legend for repairing the relevancy of the Nationals, and he is inserting a sense of pride on a disastrous franchise that suddenly is worth cheering and even watching regularly.

And now, we all know that Harper hit .443 with 31 homers and 98 RBIs at Southern Nevada, and become the second junior college player to win the Golden Spikes Award in 33 years.

Those were the days when he was the top amateur player in the nation and impressed scouts at such a young age.

Nowadays, he’s projected to claim stardom, but nonetheless lacks maturity that could raise concern.

In the past, he was tossed and suspended for arguing with an umpire during the Junior College World Series. This season, he was ejected for mocking opponents, and his trademark is grabbing all the unnecessary attention.

The symbolic eyeblack is the ugliest style ever seen and it’s not a game face, but the silliest face in sports.

If he is wearing his eyeblack all over the place when he takes the field in the near future, he would be identified as a clown on the field as if National Park is hosting the most entertaining circus.  

But this is a whole new ballgame, and in reality, this is the Major Leagues, not the Little League or Junior League. In a town that is overwhelmed to possess the sensational catcher, who’ll be making a transition to outfielder, he’s badly needed to lift a franchise out of inferiority.

What we have now is a power-hitting 17-year old with the urgency and poise to rise at the major-league level and delight the overjoyed fans. The signing of Harper was very significant for a franchise long-awaiting prosperity.

In a celebration on Tuesday, team president Stan Kasten smashed a cream pie in the face of Rizzo. It was well-deserving for a man who has constructed aspiration and life on a resuscitated franchise.

It’s easy enough to credit Rizzo for thinking intelligently in a rebuilding process, managing to sign the No. 1 pick before the midnight deadline.

Maybe he’s so persuasive at intriguing and brainwashing the mind of Boras. Maybe he offers millions to satisfy the players’ wishes, such as when Harper had finally signed to avoid declaring for the draft for the second straight year.

“[Harper] gives us another impact player in the system,” Rizzo said. “We feel we’ve really become a deep system with not only good major-league prospects but sprinkling in several impact-type players.

“He could possibly be a cornerstone of our lineup in the very near future.”

Oh, he will be a cornerstone, all right.

The accurate assumptions by Rizzo, the genius coming away victorious in every draft, are signs of motivation and self-confidence for Harper in the big leagues, increasing the raw talent of a versatile phenom.

For a battered franchise with limited goodness, the last things the Nationals need are under-performers and faltering star players. By meeting expectations, Harper might instantly change the landscape and fuel a sense of happiness by accumulating victories and producing triumph for a harmless club.

If not, the Nationals in all likelihood would still earn attention nationwide and ratings might expand, simply for what could be a prodigy in the league, a gifted player with the knack to captivate viewers.

And then again, he might not adapt as quickly as most are predicting. But as advertised, he might not only be the face of the Nationals, but the face of baseball in general.

The hideous eye black conceivably is a useful concept that he could be the face of the Majors.

First, if he wants to prove worthy and claim greatness, he will have to be called up from the minor-league system but the Nationals maintain the leverage on that one. If so, it’s easy to suggest that he’s a valuable piece. It is also rational to believe that he has the potential to be an All-Star.

If so, the fans kindly will elevate Harper’s reverence and notability at the highest level.

On the same night, the Nationals signed 25 of its top 26, including its second-round and fourth-round pick and left-handed pitcher Sammy Solis and right-handed pitcher A.J. Cole to contracts worth seven figures.

The common ritual for the Nationals is aggressively signing the deepest talent in the draft, despite almost losing out on Harper. The familiarity is discovered oftentimes on You Tube as the videos of his spectacular displays have brainwashed the nation.

From his features, he seems to be very legit and crafty in chasing and connecting with pitches by employing a powerful swing. But with all evidence that he’s self-absorbed and cocky, he is ranked atop all baseball prospects in a generation when his talent is admired globally and most notably in Major League Baseball.

On Sunday, Strasburg's comments jolted the headlines when he boldly called out Harper for holding out.

Here’s what he had to let out. “If he doesn’t want to play here, then we don’t want him here.”

However, the comments he delivered were surprising but may have been a reality check.

By all accounts, Harper wants to play in the District of Columbia.

But he is, nonetheless, represented by a greedy and influential agent. More interesting is that Strasburg is represented by Boras, too, and signed late as the deadline approached ever closer a year ago.

Aside from that drama, Harper is described as LeBron James.

How?

He never hijacked television to announce how much the deal was worth with the Nationals, but agreed in terms before deadline.

By all means, he won’t need much time to develop or adapt to the highest level. But after a monstrous college career, he must now translate similar attributes in the big leagues.

Is he the next greatest slugger and star in baseball?

Maybe he is the most talented 17-year-old and smartest kid after skipping his final two years of high school to receive his GED and enter junior college to be drafted a year earlier.

With high expectations, he’s as advertised and won’t disappoint.

Suddenly, a lifelong dream likely becomes a lifetime accomplishment.   

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Fantasy Baseball Player Prophet: Logan Morrison vs. James Loney

August 16th, 2010

Logan Morrison has a lot of potential, but how good can he be? 

Let’s look at his underlying statistics compared to the Los Angeles Dodgers' James Loney to see if there are any conclusions we can draw:

 

Double-A (Age 21): Statistics


James Loney (2005)—284 (143-of-504), 11 HR, 65 RBI, 74 R, 87 K, 59 BB
Logan Morrison (2009)—.277 (77-of-278), eight HR, 47 RBI, 48 R, 46 K, 63 BB

 

Metrics


Loney - 40 percent fly ball, 17 percent linedrive, .330 BABIP, .361 OBP, .425 SLG
Morrison - 28.6 percent flyball, 19.8 percent line drive, .305 BABIP, .414 OBP, .436 SLG

 

Triple-A (Age 22): Statistics


James Loney (2006)—.380 (139-366), eight HR, 67 RBI, 64 R, 34 K, 32 BB
Logan Morrison (2010)—.307 (73-238), six HR, 45 RBI, 36 R, 35 K, 48 BB

 

Metrics
Loney—35.2 percent flyball, 25.1 percent line drive, .404 BABIP, .426 OBP, .546 SLG
Morrison—35.9 percent fly ball, 13.6 percent line drive, .340 BABIP, .427 OBP, .487 SLG

 

Other Notes:

  • Both hit left-handed
  • Morrison is listed at 6′4,″ 245 lbs; Loney is listed at 6′3,″ 200 lbs.
  • Loney got a chance to play in the Major Leagues in 2006, but was returned to Triple-A in 2007 (but would return to the Majors for good later in ‘07).

Thoughts:

This is not the most exact comparison for a few reasons:

  • Loney actually spent two years at Double-A, the one listed above being the second of them.
  • Loney showed more extra base ability in the minor leagues, having 64 doubles over the two seasons listed above. Morrison had just 35.  That can partially be explained in their line drive rates, especially in their Triple-A seasons.
  • Morrison appears to have a better eye at the plate, walking more than he struck out at both levels.

I think the doubles discrepancy is the most important one to note. 

With his ability to hit doubles, many people speculated that as he grew older, Loney would gain power and elevation, leading to more home runs. 

He further deceived everyone when he reached the Major Leagues in 2007, hitting 15 home runs in 344 at-bats. 

It was a mirage, however, as the power has never come close to that in the following years.

I fear that Morrison could go down a similar path. 

The problem is that he also hasn’t shown the same type of line drive rate or extra base ability in the upper levels of the minor leagues. 

It’s easy to point to his 24 home runs at Single-A, but he hasn’t come close to that since being promoted.

You love to see his eye, which could make him the perfect No. 2 hitter in the Marlins order (which is where he currently is hitting). It should allow him to hit for a good average and, if he remains towards the top of the order, score some runs.

However, from a first baseman, fantasy owners want to see home runs. His power metrics show less hope than Loney’s at the same point in his career. 

Hopefully Morrison is able to develop a little more power, but at this point you can’t like what we’ve seen. I could argue that Loney’s metrics appeared more likely for power, and we’ve seen where that has led him (13 HR apiece in 2008 & 2009 and eight HR thus far in 2010).

What are your thoughts on Morrison? Is the comparison to Loney a good one? Who do you think will be the better player long-term?

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports:

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Sophomore Slump: Truth or Cliche

August 14th, 2010

In MLB, a sophomore slump, also refer to as sophomore jinx, is identified when a player is not able to live up to the standards set by their rookie season. 

Reasons to blame for the "slump" may be injury or lack of adjustments.

Pitchers seem to be more likely to regress because of fatigue. The innings pitched in their rookie season may have dramatically surpassed the prior season; think of the "Verducci Effect".

A young hitter will have to succeed by making adjustments. As the league sees the player, more videos and scouting reports will be available. Success will be determined on how fast the hitter adjusts to the new pitches being thrown and the location.

But is this term overused by many or is this cliche warranted?

Are players susceptible to this "jinx?

To answer these questions, I reviewed the second year seasons of the top 90 rookies to enter the Major Leagues since 1995.

The number of players identified to have struggle in their season was 20 (or 22%). Approximately 50 players had similar seasons as their rookie campaign with the remaining 20 surpassing their first year totals.

Surprisingly the split was almost even between hitters and pitchers.

The 11 pitchers identified were:

 

1. Livan Hernandez (1998)

2. Jason Dickson (1998)

3. Kerry Wood (1999)

4. Rolando Arroyo (1999)

5. Jeff Zimmerman (2000)

6. Rick Ankiel (2001)

7. Rodrigo Lopez (2003)

8. Shingo Takatsu (2005)

9. Josh Johnson (2007)

10. JA Happ (2010)

11. Rick Porcello (2010)

What Was Identified:

Wood, Ankiel, Johnson, and Happ were injured in their second season. Probably due to being overused.

Josh Johnson is the only pitcher to fully bounce back to become an All-Star.

 

The nine hitters to make the list were:

1. Quilvio Veras (1996)

2. Todd Hollandsworth (1997)

3. Jose Cruz Jr (1998)

4. Travis Lee (1999)

5. Warren Morris (2000)

6. Bobby Crosby (2005)

7. Troy Tulowitzki (2008)

8. Geovany Soto (2009)

9. Chris Coghlan (2010)

 

What Was Identified:

Hollandsworth, Crosby, Soto, and Coghlan join Kerry Wood as the ROY winners to make this list.

As basically all bounced back to have productive years, Morris is identified as a "One Hit Wonder". He is the one player who didn't. Will Coghlan, Happ and Porcello join Morris.

Tulowitzki has bounced from his 2008 season to become the best shortstop in baseball.

The results of this review proves that an average of one top rookie suffers the "jinx". So it proves that the label "sophomore slumps" may be a cliche, but cliches exist for a reason. 

The question that everyone should be asking, especially fantasy baseball owners, who will suffer the "slump" next year out this year's rookie crop?

 

 

 

 

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