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Small Market Success: Six Small MLB Clubs (and the Yankees) in First

August 18th, 2010

The New York Yankees’ 2010 payroll is $206,333,389 with the average player making over $8.25 million this season. New York has more than double the payroll of 22 of the remaining 29 ballclubs and more than triple the payroll of seven other teams. Not one of the other seven clubs who has a salary of over $100 million currently sits atop their division.

The Minnesota Twins are the biggest spenders, besides the Yankees, that lead their division. How much are the Twins spending this season you ask? $97 million which ranks them eleventh in the majors. As a matter of fact, the only other division leader that can come close to the Twins payroll is the Braves and they have shelled out $84 million this season ranking them right in the middle of the pack at fifteenth in the bigs.

The NL Central leading Reds are next in line with a payroll of $72 million ranking them nineteenth. Following the Reds is the club that is tied with the Yanks atop the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are twenty-first in MLB with a payroll just under $72 million, more than $134 million less than their AL East counterpart New York.

Last but not least we go to the 27th highest payroll and the 29th highest payroll. That would be the Texas Rangers and the San Diego Padres. Yes, they too sit atop the AL and NL West respectively. These two clubs combine for a payroll of just under $94 million. That $94 million would make up just 46% of the Yankees payroll and couldn’t even pay the salaries of Rodriguez, Sabathia, Jeter, and Teixeira. Those four overpaid stars combine for a salary of over $100 million in 2010.

So why all the success? Why can’t the Cubs or the Mets have this kind of success with a combined payroll of $278 million? First of all, K-Rod isn’t helping things for the Mets and we saw what the Cubs did with Derek Lee trading him and his $13 million salary to Atlanta Wednesday.

The reason for the success is a farm system approach of grooming players and making the right moves when it was time to clean house.

Teams like the Cubs and Mets are littered with players such as three $19 million men in Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Carlos Beltran. That’s almost $60 million that has gone to waste this season between those two ballclubs with all three players in extreme decline.

The press has applauded the Twins for years now as they have been able to have much success mainly through their two minor league products, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. The new M&M Boys each have their own AL MVP award and just recently the Twins were able to sign Joe Mauer to an eight year extension for the hometown discount of $23 million a year. That may not sound like much of a discount but that’s $10 milliona year less than A-Rod for a 27-year-old catcher with triple crown potential.

Teams such as the Reds and Rays have built up their team through their farm system as well and have refused to overpay free agents.

The Reds best pitcher and best hitter were both brought up through the farm system and because of it, Cincinnati is only paying Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto under $1 million combined in 2010. Moves like this have allowed Cinci to acquire key pieces to a championship such as 3B Scott Rolen and closer Francisco Cordero who makes more dough than anyone on the big red machine with a 2010 salary of $12 million.

The Rays are the best example of developing players through the farm system in order to obtain a smaller payroll. Arguably the three biggest stars on the team, (Evan Longoria, David Price, and B.J. Upton), all made their MLB debuts in Tampa Bay and in 2010 they will combine to make only $5.8 million.

The Padres and Rangers were fortunate enough to trade coveted, high-priced players in order to obtain the pieces that make up their success today.

At the trade deadline in 2007, the Rangers traded 1B Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves for four prospects and C Jarrod Saltalamacchia . While Saltalamacchia’s stay in Texas wasn’t half as long as his name, the Rangers did acquire Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Elvis Andrus in the deal. In 2010, Harrison and Feliz have anchored a great Texas bullpen and Elvis Andrus is so good that he’s moved Gold Glove winner Michael Young over to 3B and the 21-year-old is batting .276 doing it.

Arguably the Padres’ two most important players, P Clayton Richard and 1B Adrian Gonzalez, were acquired through the trades of P Adam Eaton to Texas in ’05 and the trade of Cy Young winner Jake Peavy to the White Sox at the trade deadline last season.

Clayton Richard, who was involved in the Peavy trade, is 11-5 this season for San Diego with a 3.69 ERA and a measley salary of $423,700. Peavy is currently 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA and a $15 million salary. Advantage: San Diego.

This small market success is not uncommon. The Yankees and the Red Sox are the only two teams of the past decade to win a World Series title with a payroll over $100 million.

In 2003, the Florida Marlins and their miniscule payroll of $48.7 million were able to defeat the New York Yankees and their payroll of $125.9 million. I am not saying that the Padres or the Reds can do the same thing as the Marlins, but stranger things have happened. Money sure doesn’t hurt, but it also doesn’t guarantee a thing in today’s game of baseball balance from top to bottom of the payroll rankings.

-scf

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Posted in Derek Jeter, MLB, Stats, new york yankees

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Fantasy Baseball: Wednesday News and Notes

August 18th, 2010

 

Last Night Rewind

  • Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia returned to their respective lineups after missing time with injuries. Pedroia went hitless in four at-bats, but he did immediately give the Boston lineup a bit more respectability. He will need to get his timing back and could struggle for a week. The same would be true for Utley. It could take Utley longer to fully be ready to go despite him being in the lineup. He went 0-for-5 last night.
  • Staying in Boston, there are multiple reports indicating that Jacoby Ellsbury could be done for the season. The outfielder is on the DL for the third time this season with a rib injury. Terry Francona indicated that it is going to be a matter of how much he can tolerate, as being 100 percent this year is likely out of the question.
  • Colby Rasmus was not in the lineup last night for the Cardinals. He indicated that he could miss the next four games with a strained calf muscle. If that is the case, daily leagues should certainly get him out of the lineup for Wednesday and consider him a question mark straight through the series against the Giants.
  • Justin Morneau took batting practice yesterday before the Twins' game against the White Sox. Batting practice was initially supposed to be the final step before a rehab assignment, but Morneau continues to battle symptoms upon completion of any activity. Look for an update on his condition today. Fantasy owners are certainly waiting on his return.
  • Seven days ago, Curtis Granderson was not in the lineup as the team looked to change his swing. It certainly seems to be doing the job. In his last 22 at-bats Granderson is hitting .364 with two home runs and two doubles. Over that stretch he has raised his average nine points up to .248. Not stellar, but a step in the right direction.

 

Wednesday Notes

  • Victor Martinez is 7-for-13 against Scott Kazmir with a home run. He has the best numbers on the roster, with Marco Scutaro checking in at .286. David Ortiz is 9-for-44 and Mike Lowell only 10-for-43, but he does have four home runs against the lefty. Adrian Beltre has struggled with a 3-for-20 mark against Kazmir as well.
  • Casey McGehee has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last two weeks, but he is only 1-for-12 against Adam Wainwright. The bulk of the Brewers have struggled against him as well. Ryan Braun is only 7-for-38, and Prince Fielder is just 6-for-35. Even Rickie Weeks is sitting at 4-for-24. Craig Counsell is a .304 hitter in 23 at-bats against him and is the only Brewer with an average better than .265 against Wainwright.
  • Gavin Floyd was roughed up for the first time in a long time in his last start against Minnesota. Floyd is now 0-2 against them on the year, surrendering seven earned runs on 17 hits in 11.2 innings pitched. Denard Span is 10-for-21 against him, and Jason Kubel has four home runs in 32 at-bats to go with a .344 average.
  • Tim Hudson has been on a bit of a roll lately. Hudson has allowed just two earned runs over his last 36.2 innings pitched covering five starts. Josh Willingham is just 1-for-20 against Hudson while Ryan Zimmerman is only 5-for-31. Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Dunn both have solid numbers against Hudson and should be in your lineup here.
  • Alex Gordon has owned Fausto Carmona, going 8-for-16 against him overall. Mike Aviles cracks .300 as well with his 4-for-13 mark. Billy Butler is not stellar at only 5-for-20 without a home run. Carmona has lost three of his last four starts but is 6-3 on the road with a 3.30 ERA.
  • Francisco Liriano is 2-0 in three starts against the White Sox this year, including a win in his last time out against them. While he may have a tired arm, Liriano has still allowed just five earned runs in his last 31.1 innings pitched. He is 6-3 at home this season with a BAA of .226 and an ERA of 2.32. Avoid the 2-for-15 of Alex Rios, but look to use the 7-for-14 of Alexei Ramirez.
  • You will want the 11-for-33 of Carlos Beltran and maybe even the .279 mark of Jose Reyes in your lineup against Brett Myers, but the rest of the Mets have struggled. David Wright has four home runs against Myers but is only 6-for-28 lifetime. Jeff Francoeur is 7-for-38, and Luis Castillo is only 6-for-38.
  • There is cautious optimism on Jeremy Guthrie. The Orioles pitcher is 3-0 in August with a 1.71 ERA and a .171 BAA. In 21 innings this month he has allowed five walks and 13 hits. He has won four of his last five starts overall and worked into the seventh inning in five of his last six appearances.
  • It could be an even better welcome back for Chase Utley today. Utley is 6-for-12 against Matt Cain with three home runs. Cain has not necessarily been dominant of late, but he continues to pitch better than his record shows. He is not as good on the road as he is at home, posting just a 3-6 record away from San Francisco.
  • Spot Starts: Jason Hammel, Clayton Richard, Guthrie

 

Thursday Notes

  • Josh Beckett has had nothing but struggles, largely stemming from a lack of command in his fastball. The Angels have hit him well overall. Keep Torii Hunter, Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, and Hideki Matsui in your lineups. Look to avoid the 2-for-15 of Alberto Callaspo and the .179 of Bobby Abreu where possible.
  • While you should look to avoid Alexi Casilla and the 4-for-20 of Jim Thome against Mark Buehrle, the rest of the Twins have very good numbers against the lefty. Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, and Delmon Young are all well north of .300 against him, and each has two home runs. Buehrle is just 5-7 on the road this year.
  • Miguel Olivo should get the start against Ted Lilly. Olivo is 5-for-11 against the pitcher with three home runs. He has the only numbers worth noting in this one. Lilly is 3-0 since being acquired by the Dodgers and has posted a 1.89 ERA in those outings.
  • The bats that you would actually want to have in the lineup against Derek Lowe have not done particularly well against him. Adam Dunn has just a .179 average and no home runs in 31 at-bats against him while Josh Willingham is only 5-for-27. Ryan Zimmerman has a .263 mark, and Ivan Rodriguez is at .250. Adam Kennedy is the best of the bunch at .371 in 35 at-bats. Lowe is 0-2 against Washington with a 6.75 ERA this season.
  • Paul Maholm has lost four of his last five starts and has watched his ERA climb nearly a full run in those outings. Batters are hitting .362 against him in August, and he is only 5-7 at home on the season. Dan Uggla is only 3-for-16 against him, but Hanley Ramirez is 6-for-16 with two home runs, and Cody Ross is 4-for-11.
  • Spot Starts: Sean West, John Lannan, Travis Wood

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Can Minnesota Twins Win the World Series?

August 16th, 2010

The 2009 New York Yankees set the template.

Open a brand-new ballpark and immediately win a World Series. Could the current, first place Minnesota Twins, do just that? They are, after all, unsurprisingly in first place.

Let's see how they're better than last year.

As long as they don't play their nemesis, the New York Yankee$, who obviously have their number winning 44 of the past 60 meetings, while beating them every time in the playoffs, they should be okay.

Right now, their playoff rivals would be the Tampa Bay Rays, who don't scare me despite their pitching, or the untested Texas Rangers, who I have a feeling will just be happy to be there after a long, 11-year absence.

Next, three of the four Twins' weaknesses in the playoffs to those big, bad Yankees—Justin Morneau, Glen Perkins, and Joe Nathan (along with Jesse Crain) likely wouldn't even face them anyway, therefore increasing our chances. We might have a shot if Crain or Guerrier (2-7) don't see the field.

That is why we got Capps, who may be the X-factor. Don't forget he was hidden in the National League where the Yankees didn't have a lot of chances to hit him around.

For all you Twins fans hoping and praying Morneau gets over his concussion and comes back, I say, forget about it. Don't count on it. If you are, you're only setting yourself up to be hurt when he doesn't come back.

I say, don't shut him down for the season, since we could always use him in the ALCS vs Texas or Tampa, but just move on as if he's not coming back. Similar to what the Jets are doing with Darrelle Revis.

Not only do we not need him, as we're 22-7 in the games he's missed, but he's a detriment when he doesn't show up in New York for those crucial playoff runs. Michael Cuddyer is more than capable of playing first base since he gets the opportunity to do so when Morneau goes down each year with an injury.

Last year, it was his back. This year, it's his head. Next year will be an elbow.

Is there any way we can sign Morneau to an April-July contract since that's basically all he's good for? It seems every year, the cycle is April slump, May-June hot, July hot, then he gets hurt. August-September is anyone's guess.

Morneau hurt? Check.

Cuddyer filling in admirably? Check.

Twins in first place? check.

It's almost like those logical equations in philosophy: Given that Justin Morneau is hurt, and given that Michael Cuddyer is playing first base, therefore, the Minnesota Twins must be in first place and in a pennant race.

 

Other Reasons for Optimism

Last year, the 2009 Twins that went belly up to the Yankee$ had those four playoff chokers on their postseason roster, but didn't have Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome. Both not only bring proven veteran leadership, but also better playoff experience and success.

While Thome and Hudson may only have career averages of .222 and .250 in the playoffs, I'd take either of them over Alexi Casilla and Morneau as was the case last year.

Finally, not only did the Twins actually go 2-4 vs the Yankee$ this year, but Jason Kubel's one HR, three hits, and four RBI in Yankee Stadium with a .375 BA will be huge, given he now has confidence knowing he can break the hex. He hit a whopping .467 in 15 at-bats vs the Yankees.

Don't forget that while 2-4 may not seem like much, it is. It proves we can win after going 0-10 vs New York last year, but more importantly, in taking the last game of each series in New York and at home, we can feel confident knowing the last time we played them in each venue, we won and will hopefully build off that momentum.

 

Yankee Fans Sure to Note the Pitching Disparity

In addition to the Yankees notable All-Star-at-every-position continual theme, greaser Yankee fans will note that the hypothetical pitching matchups don't scare them.

Game One (in New York given they'll get the top seed): Carl Pavano, 15-7, 3.27 vs. CC Sabathia, 15-5, 3.14.

Game Two: Francisco Liriano, 11-7, 3.26 vs. Andy Pettitte, 11-2, 2.88. I'd use Nick Blackburn here as he's the only one I'm confident can go into New York and come out in the seventh with a 1-1 tie as he's done it before. Big Game Nick is what they should be calling him.

Game Three: (MPLS) baby-faced Scott Baker, 10-9, 4.76 vs. AJ Burnett, 9-10, 4.66.

Baker has a 4.09 ERA this year vs. New York, and they are sure to salivate over that 4.76 ERA.

Pettitte is Mr. Automatic when it comes to "must win" as he's done it his whole career.

Even if we get a miracle and get Game One vs. NY which we did in both 2003 and 2004, where we were swept the rest of both series thanks in large part to Pettitte, he's so automatic that we'll have a tough road.

Think I'm jumping the gun in writing this in August? Everything is just so eerily similar to last year. The Tigers are done having went 9-22 since the All-Star break with three losing streaks of four games or more already.

The Sox? Heh, they're predictably falling apart and even if we take two of three tomorrow, we still gain a game on them to go up four, and should we lose the series by winning only one, they gain two and still leave town down a game.  Don't worry about a sweep. At 35-20 at home, that ain't happening.

Maybe we won't run into New York. Maybe the Rays or Texas will take care of our business for us and set up a Minnesota-Texas or Minnesota-Tampa "small market" ALCS from Hell for Major League Baseball.

I know the Twins, with a $96M payroll that ranks top 10 aren't supposed to be considered "small market" anymore, but until they get by the Yankee$, why shouldn't we continue to think of them as such?

If the playoffs started today, the Yankees (72-45, .615) would play the Twins (68-50, .576) since the Rays (71-46, .607) would be the Wild Card and cannot, because of Major League Baseball's stupid rule, play a division rival in the opening round. They should take a page from, I don't know, every other sport and allow this.

As Twins fans, we should be pulling for the current second seed Rangers (67-49, .578) to start losing so we can leap over them in the standings, and as a result take our chances vs Tampa Bay, who we match up better with, since the league won't allow the matchup I really want against Texas.

If it weren't for the damn Yankees, I'd be saying anything is possible with the lackluster Rangers and Rays in the playoffs, and would expect us to make it to the World Series. But until someone knocks New York out, it's hard to get excited knowing our two differing histories.

Let's hope we took good notes from last year.

Statistics and information from ESPN.com directly contributed to the content of this article.

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Posted in Andy Pettitte, Justin Morneau, MLB, Minnesota Twins, Preview/Prediction

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No timetable for Morneau to return (AP)

August 13th, 2010
Minnesota Twins first-baseman Justin Morneau says there is no timetable for his return from a concussion, and reliever Jose Mijares will miss four weeks with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Morneau says he's "making progress and seeing some positive signs." The former MVP says he still experiences symptoms from the concussion, specifically while running.

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Chicago White Sox: Why the South Siders Are on the Brink

August 10th, 2010

 

Where have you gone, white-hot White Sox? The team that just three weeks ago looked like it could run away with the Central Division is suddenly tied and could spiral downward faster than you can say "Mercy."

Losing three of four to the Orioles in the middle of a pennant race is inexcusable, no matter who their manager is.

The Sox mustered just 10 runs in four games against Baltimore’s league-worst pitching staff. The 4-5-6 hitters were a combined 5-for-33 in the series, and the Sox hit 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position in the last two defeats. Carlos Quentin has just one hit in his last 12 at-bats, and A.J. Pierzynski is hitting a measly .188 since the All-Star break.

 

The White Sox return home banged up and scuffed up. The offense has returned to its early-season mediocrity, the bullpen looks vulnerable, and the injury bug has begun to rear its ugly head.

Take Gordon Beckham’s groin injury, then add Andruw Jones’ inability to hit a baseball and Bobby Jenks’ stiff back—not to mention his diminished skills—and it looks like the White Sox have all the ingredients for an August implosion.

Over the next 10 days, the South Siders play six games against the “Piranhas” of Minnesota and a three-game set against the Tigers, who have faded faster than President Obama’s approval rating.

The Twins enter the midweek series at U.S. Cellular Field on a roll, winning seven of their last 10, and lead the majors with a .303 batting average since June 29. All of that has come without MVP-caliber Justin Morneau, who is expected to begin a rehab assignment within the next two weeks. His return to the lineup will be a boon for the Twinkies.

 

On paper, it looks like Ozzie and Co. may have seen their time atop the Central expire.

Not so fast my friend.

This is baseball, not tic-tac-toe.

These games aren’t played on paper.

Chicago enters the dog days of August down, but by no means out. The 2010 White Sox have shown an uncanny ability to persevere and fight through adversity. For evidence of this, look no further than June 8.

The night before the Blackhawks hoisted the Cup, the South Siders were just 24-33, 9.5 games back of Minnesota in the Central. The roster was on the verge of being gutted.

Luckily, GM Kenny Williams was more patient than many Sox faithful.

Ozzie’s crew is 39-16 since that June night, thanks to their never-say-die attitude, coupled with a stacked rotation and a lineup that had been in a groove.

Last weekend’s series in Baltimore could prove to be a hiccup along the way to a division title or a small hole that led to a BP-sized leak.

The next 10 days are the most crucial of the season; whoever is nestled in first come August 20 will be the odds-on favorites to win the division.

It’s Black and White.

 

Check out this article along with other examples of Ryan's work at sportshaze.com, where he is the source for Blackhawks and White Sox coverage.

 

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