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MLB Attendance Down 701,000

August 13th, 2010

For the first time this season since I have been tracking the MLB attendance at baseball-reference.com, the attendance has declined over 700,000. Not surprisingly, we haven’t heard any reports from baseball commissioner Bud Selig about how well the game of baseball is doing.

Only 12 teams have shown an increase in attendance during the 2010 baseball season. The numbers should continue to drop as teams drop further out of the races, school starts again, and college and pro football start in about a month.

Attendance would have fallen more if not for the new Target Field in Minnesota showing an increase of over 561,000 more fans than in 2009 for the Minnesota. The Colorado Rockies, with an increase of over 163,000, and the San Francisco Giants, with over 108,000 more fans this season, are the only three teams with an increase of over 100,000 more fans than in 2010.

Seven teams have drawn over 100,000 less fans in 2010 than in 2009 with the New York Mets topping the list with a loss of over 341,000 fans. The Toronto Blue Jays, with a loss of over 273,000 fans, the Indians, drawing over 271,000, and even the Milwaukee Brewers, who Selig used to own, have drawn over 217,000 fewer fans.

Twelve teams are drawing 1,000 fewer fans per game than in 2009 with the New York Mets losing over 6,200 fans per game while Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians losing over 4,000 fans per game while the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles are drawing over 3,000 less fans per game.

The Yankees are averaging over 46,000 fans per game while the Cleveland Indians are the worst drawing team with about an average of 17,000 fans per game.

The Florida Marlins could move to the positive side in attendance since they have lost only 38 fans per game and are only a minus 2,249 for the season.

Over 700,000 fewer fans represents a huge loss for the major league baseball. Those 700,000 fans, assuming they would have spent $20 at each game, means a loss of $14 million for baseball.

Baseball is averaging 408 fewer fans per game which, if using the $20 per fan benchmark, represents a loss at each game of $8,160, which multiplied 81 times for each home game comes to a loss of $660,960 for the season.

With 11 major league teams at least 10 games behind the division leaders and three teams at least nine games behind the division leaders, that could be 13 teams out of the division races very soon.

On a more positive note five division races are showing a separation of two-and-half games or less between the first and second place teams which should boost attendance. The AL West is the only race not hotly contested but not by no means over with the Angels seven-and-half behind the Rangers.

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost over 98,000 fans despite being the thick of the AL East race.

These are the attendance gain or loss numbers for all the division leaders:

Yankees: +38,839

Twins: +561,382

Rangers: +96,386

Braves: +43,264

Cardinals: -14,617

Padres: 88,012

The totals for all the last place teams in each division:

Orioles: -176,399

Royals: -149,108

Mariners: -68,584

Nationals: + 63,477 ( most of increase could be attributed to Stephen Strasburg pitching in home games)

Pirates: +71,064 (this is a surprise considering the Pirates have lost seven more games than at this point last season)

Diamondbacks: -27,879

In summation, these numbers mean that general managers will have to be even more careful to not sign free agents for exorbitant sums.

They will be careful to not take a risk on injury prone players like Ben Sheets who earned $10 million from the Athletics despite winning only four games in 20 starts and is now out for the season and is not likely to pitch at all in 2011. They also paid Coco Crisp $5 million to play in only 41 games so far and he will fall short of playing in 100 games.

Another example is Kevin Millwood earning $12 million this season with two wins in 23 starts. The Mariners have paid out big bucks to players like Milton Bradley (hitting .205 for $11 million in 2010) and Chone Figgins, who is hitting .253 for $8.5 million but is hitting .310 since the All-Star break.

The Mets are paying Carlos Beltran over $19 million and he only recently played in his first game of the season. Jason Bay is earning $8 million to hit six home runs.

Then there is the case of Carlos Zambrano, who has either pitched badly or been suspended this season for $18.8 million, despite winning only three games.

Kosuke Fukudome is earning $14 million in 2010 and hit .189 in June and .162 in July, but is hitting .421 in August.

Baseball is going to have to stop the insanity of these long-term contracts because the fanbase isn’t there to support such extravagant spending.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Opinion, Stats

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New York Mets, and Their Fans, Should All Be Like Johan Santana

August 12th, 2010

What Johan Santana did today for the New York Mets was nothing short of amazing, and this is a franchise that knows from amazing.

Much the same way he pitched a gem when the Mets needed a win at the end of the 2008 season, Santana came up huge a day after the Mets saw another eighth-inning lead disappear, only to have their closer, Francisco Rodriguez, arrested for assaulting his father-in-law near the clubhouse after the game.

Do we have a Flushing Zoo on our hands?

Thursday afternoon's game was an afterthought for many in the media, who took the K-Rod incident and the blown game Wednesday to sharpen their knives and call for the heads of Jerry Manuel, Jeff Wilpon, Fred Wilpon, Omar Minaya, and just about everyone connected with this team short of Mr. Met and the Cowbell Man.

Meanwhile, Santana (who has his own personal issues to worry about) took the ball and went to work. Set-up man? Closer? He didn't need them. In a game where the Mets desperately needed a win, to win a series and to get back to .500 and keep alive whatever hopes they have of staying in the playoff hunt, Santana did it all. Nine innings, four hits, two walks, 10 strikeouts, 115 pitches. No runs.

It was the Mets' 17th shutout of the season. Again, as I said yesterday, that a team with 17 shutouts is only .500 tells you all you need to know about how bad the offense has been, especially lately.

But it wasn't just Johan. Coincidentally, Carlos Beltran went 3-for-3 and had an RBI sac fly. Jose Reyes had two hits and scored a run. And, wouldn't you know it, the Mets won. Think those factors had anything to do with it?

It was a tremendous win. Beltran showed signs of life. But the big story was K-Rod, who is on the restricted list for two days and could likely be suspended by the team as well.

If there wasn't blood in the water, it's crimson now. If people weren't burying the Mets before, they're piling on the dirt in spades.

I expect it from the media. Objectivity is a quaint relic these days. It's all about opinions, second-guessing, bluster and bombast, and who can yell louder than the next guy. It's about pushing people's buttons and polls and number of page views and blog comments.

What bugs me the most is how many Mets fans seem to revel in the bad news. It seems that if the Mets aren't good—and when I say "good," I mean unquestionably good—these kinds of fans would prefer the Mets to be horrible, so they can freely rage at the organization and its players. Quick to bury them, to dump them, to call for people's jobs and demand trades.

If the Mets are somewhere in between, like they are now (.500 is the definition of in between), these fans can't handle it. We can't revel in the team's superiority, but the team isn't awful, either, and with 48 games left, there's still a chance they can make a run...

Nah...let's just bury them. It's simpler that way.

To me, these people aren't fans. They're critics. They're cranks.

I follow the Mets and watch their games to enjoy them. If the team is bad, it's bad. If it's great, it's great. If it's somewhere in the middle, I watch and root for them to get in the race. I cheer for my team. I boo the opposition.

I can't see how fans who are so quick to bury and belittle and tear apart this team—their team—get any joy out of being a Mets fan. There's no belief. No hope against hope. Just miserable people wallowing in their misery. They should all hang out together with Joe Benigno with T-shirts emblazoned with their credo: "Oh, the pain!"

I'm a realist. I understand that it's a tall order for the Mets to rally back and make a playoff run. This team has holes that management refused to fill. It's far from perfect. They need a bunch of guys to collectively get their acts together, and soon.

But the Phillies and the Rockies and other teams in recent years have shown that you can make up games in a hurry. Seventeen shutouts gives me hope. Santana gives me hope. The possibility of Reyes, David Wright, Beltran, Angel Pagan, Ike Davis, Josh Thole and (hopefully) Jason Bay finding their groove at the plate together gives me hope.

Quick story: I was a freshman at Boston University when the Mets won it all in 1986. I remember watching Game Six in a friend's dorm room with a bunch of people, and when Boston took the lead late, the Sox fans—real and bandwagoneers—took off for Kenmore Square to celebrate.

I stayed and watched with my pal Tim, a Sox fan. He anticipated Boston's first World Series in 69 years. I had nothing but hope.

What a feeling it was to stand outside the elevator doors on our floor later in the evening, after the Mets rallied to win, waiting until those doors opened, to see everyone who ran out to celebrate slinking back. Oh, how good it felt to stick it to those who thought it was over.

That's kind of how I feel now. It may not happen, but how good will it feel if the Mets somehow do put it together and make the playoffs? To stick it to everyone who said they were done?

Santana isn't giving up anytime soon. Neither am I.

As for whether we have a Flushing Zoo, you'll recall there was a Bronx Zoo, where the manager hated the team's star player, where the star and the captain hated each other, where the owner made as many headlines as the team. That team won two World Series.

I've always liked the zoo.

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Posted in Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana, MLB, NL East, World Series, jose reyes, new york mets

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Mike Pelfrey: The Puzzler

August 12th, 2010

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If I had to sum up the Mets' 2010 season so far in one word, it would be enigmatic. The season has been full of enigmas. How can the Mets play so well at home but so dreadful on the road? How can the Mets play so well in May and June, but so badly in July and August? How is it that Jason Bay a consistent 30-plus HR, 100 RBI player, can just be lost at the plate? Where did this Angel Pagan player come from? R.A. Dickey? These are all very puzzling events from the season, however, I think the one of the more intriguing enigmatic stories of 2010 is Mike Pelfrey. 

Pelfrey started the season looking like the 1A the Mets needed and expected him to be when they drafted Pelfrey with the ninth overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft out of Wichita State. Pelfrey started out the season 9-1 with a 2.39 ERA. Since Pelfrey won his 10th game (Note: All the following stats are excluding Pelfrey's most recent start), he clearly hasn't been the same. Since Pelfrey won that 10th game on June 25th, he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. In only one of those games, Pelfrey managed to get out of the fifth inning. After looking at some splits, I saw some eye opening stats. Pelfrey, in his first 14 appearances (13 starts and one save), had a BAA (Batting Average Against) of .246, a BAbip (Batting Average of balls in play) of .281, a Swinging Strike rate of 17 percent, and threw about 15 pitches per innings.

 

**Read the rest...**

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Posted in MLB, Mike Pelfrey, Stats, new york mets

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A New York Mets Satire: So What if Our Closer Is in Jail?

August 12th, 2010

The Mets adopted an unusual strategy for dealing with reporters' inquiries about K-Rod's arrest for assault last night.

Normally reserved and bashful David Wright sarcastically told reporters, "I'm surprised, K-Rod is such an even-tempered guy.  The victim is lucky Frankie didn't stab him.  I hope he stays in jail."

Asked if K-Rod's two-game suspension would impact the Mets' performance, Mets manager Jerry Manuel collapsed into a fit of honesty, yelling, "we're going to lose anyway.  What's the difference if our closer is in jail?  We suck.  That's right, we suck. You wanna know why we haven't won two games in a row since May?  We suck.  You wanna know why we punch our father in-laws in the head?  We suck.  That's right. That's my official answer to every question from now on.  Next?"

Adam Rubin then asked Jerry Manuel why his boss, Omar Minaya, blamed him for his assistant, Tony Bernazard's half naked assault on minor league players last year.  "I just told you, we suck."

"How about the Wilpons, Jerry, do they suck too?" SNY reporter Kevin Burkhardt asked the unravelling manager.  "You bet they suck.  Suck starts at the top, Kev.  Even our bat boy's a chump."

"Jerry, what about Jason Bay, does he suck too?"

"Are you kidding me?  He sucks the most.  No, John Maine, he's the biggest sucker I've ever met in my life.  I wouldn't let that cat mow my lawn.  I'll pay anyone in this room if they can promise me I'll never have to see those two chumps ever again.  As a matter of fact.  I'm done.  I'm done.  I've made my money, I don't have to put up with another minute of the Mets, or baseball.  I hate the sport.  I used to like it but it's ruined.  I never wanna see another baseball again in my life.  And you know what's the only thing that sucks more than the Mets?  It's you.  The media.  You guys...I wish K-Rod had hit you.  He hit the wrong guy.  Quote me on that.  I'm outtee 5000, gangster style," and with that stormed out of the press room throwing his jersey at reporters after gesturing to wipe his rear end with it.  "Have a bad season, you suckers" were his final words before he disappeared from the clubhouse.

Gary Apple and Bobby Ojeda then spent the entire postgame show laughing and drinking beer on camera while pranking the entire team on their private cell phones.  In a call to Jeff Francouer, Ojeda pretended to be a dentist inquiring about his "massive chompers." Gary Apple called Johan Santana, pretending to be the woman accusing him of sexual assault when he vomited all over the studio desk, during the broadcast.

The postgame show ended when Mets COO "Jeffy boy" Jeff Wilpon arrived on the set to fire Ojeda and Gary Apple who proceeded to beat him up after putting on beards, "blingy" sunglasses, and Mets hats, imitating the look of the team's jailed relief pitcher, K-Rod.

The Mets are currently nine games back behind the Atlanta Braves and staging a late season comeback, and an unexpected World Series Championship.

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Posted in Humor, MLB, Satire, new york mets

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A Season to Forget: Which MLB Franchise Has Disappointed The Most?

August 10th, 2010

 

This season has not been a good season for many high-payroll MLB Franchises.

The Red Sox have endured countless injuries, putting their backs against the wall for the Wild Card chase. 

The Tigers and Dodgers both see struggles to claw back into contention.

The Astros, despite a payroll of over $90 million in 2010, were never even considered in the running for the playoffs, especially after a poor off-season of questionable signings. 

Three franchises, however, strike me as the most disappointing in 2010: The Cubs, Mariners, and Mets. Two teams were supremely bankrolled, while one was blessed with a strong 2009 turnaround and an innovative front office that tried to counter previous bad roster decisions with shrewd arbitrage opportunities on players. So what has gone wrong for these three clubs in 2010?

New York Mets:
2010 Payroll: $126,498,096
Record as of 8/10:  56-56

The Mets had a 2009 season to forget, but 2010 had promise. The team signed Jason Bay after a big 36 HR, 134 OPS+ season in 2009 for Boston. Ike Davis was poised to be called up. Jon Niese was ready to go. With a division that had consisted of the Phillies (who, while still very good, are aging), and a Braves team with, at the time, more potential than results, the Mets looked in decent shape to contend.

 

What went wrong?

For starters, Jason Bay's season (.259/.347/.405, 102 OPS+, 6 HR) was not exactly what Omar Minaya had in mind. Outside of David Wright and Angel Pagan, the Mets have had mostly mediocre lineup performances, and running Jeff Francoeur's sub-.300 OBP out to the field every day has not helped matters. Reyes and Beltran have not been the same players in 2010 as they have been in the past, as well. Francisco Rodriguez is having a terrific season (10.73 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 2.67 FIP), but the rest of the bullpen, collectively, has been mediocre.

Chicago Cubs:
2010 Payroll: $144,359,000
Record as of 8/10: 47-65

Proving that you cannot simply sign championships, the Cubs are reminding fans in a big way of how painful it has been to root for the team since Frank Chance moved on to the Yankees. The Cubs did have reason to believe that a better work environment without Milton Bradley, and a healthier Alfonso Soriano, would help the team immensely, as well as possibly slipping into the postseason via a weak NL Central.

What went wrong?

More like what went right? Aramis Ramirez has gone from a star to a fringe major leaguer, posting a 78 OPS+ and defense that belongs in the AL's Designated Hitter spot. Derrek Lee, after a brilliant 2009, has begun to show his age as well, posting an 85 OPS+. While Soriano has been solid, he has not played near what you would expect a $19 mil a year player to produce, and likewise for Fukudome at $14 million. Geovany Soto has been the best player in the Cubs lineup, but Piniella gave Koyie Hill 124 PA to produce a 24 OPS+ anyway. Despite Zambrano's publicized struggles, the Cubs starting pitching has actually been pretty good, but they have been unable to fill in their bullpen spots outside of Marmol (my Nolan Ryan award winner for 2010, hands down) and Marshall.

 

Seattle Mariners:
2010 Payroll: $91,143,333
Record as of 8/10: 43-70

It was a move that had many baseball minds buzzing: The Mariners, in a very live ball era, looked to turn their focus squarely to defense. While many a Monday morning Quarterback now question the moves, at the time, things seemed intelligent. They signed Chone Figgins to what looked to be a good deal. They traded Carlos Silva for the 2008 AL OPS champion in Milton Bradley. They traded 30 year old Bill Hall for 27 year old Casey Kotchman. And of course, they traded a rather uninspiring crop of prospects for Cliff Lee. Things looked positive for a team coming off an 83 win campaign.

What went wrong?

More like what did not go wrong for these Mariners? While most people expected the offense to be poor, not many could have expected just 3.25 runs per game. Rob Johnson (60 OPS+), Casey Kotchman (72 OPS+), Chone Figgins (81 OPS+), Jose Lopez (65 OPS+), Franklin Gutierrez (89 OPS+), Ichiro (108 OPS+), and Milton Bradley (76 OPS+) have all performed well below where most people would have expected offensively. David Aardsma has crashed back down to earth as well, with just a 4.29 FIP after last season's 3.01 (but interestingly, the exact same xFIP of 4.12). Cliff Lee was excellent in his time for the Mariners, and King Felix and Jason Vargas have had excellent seasons; however, the rest of the pitching staff failed to deliver as they should have. Gutierrez (2.4 WAR, according to baseball-reference.com) and Ichiro (2.1) are the only members of the lineup with over two WAR currently, and the Wilsons (Josh and Jack, respectively) are the only others with one WAR or more. Their WAR ratings? 1.1 and 1.0. 

 

Who is the most disappointing?

This is a tough decision. While the Mets have underachieved, I do not think it is them. I predicted the Braves to win that division, and the Phillies to win the Wild Card, the Mets are almost where I expected them to fall.

The Mariners should be one or two on everyone's list. While not built to be an offensive juggernaut, even a 4.25 run per game team (or about 689 a season) could be right in the thick of things. Thanks to numerous sub-optimal performances, however, the team looks like the laughing stock it was in 2008, despite a much better leadership in the front office.

In the end, though, any team that manages to slip behind the Astros while sporting a $140+ million dollar payroll has to take the cake. The Cubs have been all sorts of problems in 2010, from the ownership, to a manager whose flaws have come out in full force now that he lacks a star studded roster, to the players on the field, the situation in Chicago has been a mess in 2010. The Cubs are constantly able to allot $40 to $50 million more per season in free agent signings than their NL Central counterparts, and have little to no excuse to perform this bad. While the Cubs have hope for the future, given the strong seasons from AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa, the emergence of Starlin Castro, and the good move to pick up Blake DeWitt, this incarnation of the roster has been nothing short of a disaster.

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Posted in Chicago Cubs, MLB, Opinion

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