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Fantasy Baseball: Wednesday News and Notes

August 18th, 2010

 

Last Night Rewind

  • Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia returned to their respective lineups after missing time with injuries. Pedroia went hitless in four at-bats, but he did immediately give the Boston lineup a bit more respectability. He will need to get his timing back and could struggle for a week. The same would be true for Utley. It could take Utley longer to fully be ready to go despite him being in the lineup. He went 0-for-5 last night.
  • Staying in Boston, there are multiple reports indicating that Jacoby Ellsbury could be done for the season. The outfielder is on the DL for the third time this season with a rib injury. Terry Francona indicated that it is going to be a matter of how much he can tolerate, as being 100 percent this year is likely out of the question.
  • Colby Rasmus was not in the lineup last night for the Cardinals. He indicated that he could miss the next four games with a strained calf muscle. If that is the case, daily leagues should certainly get him out of the lineup for Wednesday and consider him a question mark straight through the series against the Giants.
  • Justin Morneau took batting practice yesterday before the Twins' game against the White Sox. Batting practice was initially supposed to be the final step before a rehab assignment, but Morneau continues to battle symptoms upon completion of any activity. Look for an update on his condition today. Fantasy owners are certainly waiting on his return.
  • Seven days ago, Curtis Granderson was not in the lineup as the team looked to change his swing. It certainly seems to be doing the job. In his last 22 at-bats Granderson is hitting .364 with two home runs and two doubles. Over that stretch he has raised his average nine points up to .248. Not stellar, but a step in the right direction.

 

Wednesday Notes

  • Victor Martinez is 7-for-13 against Scott Kazmir with a home run. He has the best numbers on the roster, with Marco Scutaro checking in at .286. David Ortiz is 9-for-44 and Mike Lowell only 10-for-43, but he does have four home runs against the lefty. Adrian Beltre has struggled with a 3-for-20 mark against Kazmir as well.
  • Casey McGehee has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last two weeks, but he is only 1-for-12 against Adam Wainwright. The bulk of the Brewers have struggled against him as well. Ryan Braun is only 7-for-38, and Prince Fielder is just 6-for-35. Even Rickie Weeks is sitting at 4-for-24. Craig Counsell is a .304 hitter in 23 at-bats against him and is the only Brewer with an average better than .265 against Wainwright.
  • Gavin Floyd was roughed up for the first time in a long time in his last start against Minnesota. Floyd is now 0-2 against them on the year, surrendering seven earned runs on 17 hits in 11.2 innings pitched. Denard Span is 10-for-21 against him, and Jason Kubel has four home runs in 32 at-bats to go with a .344 average.
  • Tim Hudson has been on a bit of a roll lately. Hudson has allowed just two earned runs over his last 36.2 innings pitched covering five starts. Josh Willingham is just 1-for-20 against Hudson while Ryan Zimmerman is only 5-for-31. Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Dunn both have solid numbers against Hudson and should be in your lineup here.
  • Alex Gordon has owned Fausto Carmona, going 8-for-16 against him overall. Mike Aviles cracks .300 as well with his 4-for-13 mark. Billy Butler is not stellar at only 5-for-20 without a home run. Carmona has lost three of his last four starts but is 6-3 on the road with a 3.30 ERA.
  • Francisco Liriano is 2-0 in three starts against the White Sox this year, including a win in his last time out against them. While he may have a tired arm, Liriano has still allowed just five earned runs in his last 31.1 innings pitched. He is 6-3 at home this season with a BAA of .226 and an ERA of 2.32. Avoid the 2-for-15 of Alex Rios, but look to use the 7-for-14 of Alexei Ramirez.
  • You will want the 11-for-33 of Carlos Beltran and maybe even the .279 mark of Jose Reyes in your lineup against Brett Myers, but the rest of the Mets have struggled. David Wright has four home runs against Myers but is only 6-for-28 lifetime. Jeff Francoeur is 7-for-38, and Luis Castillo is only 6-for-38.
  • There is cautious optimism on Jeremy Guthrie. The Orioles pitcher is 3-0 in August with a 1.71 ERA and a .171 BAA. In 21 innings this month he has allowed five walks and 13 hits. He has won four of his last five starts overall and worked into the seventh inning in five of his last six appearances.
  • It could be an even better welcome back for Chase Utley today. Utley is 6-for-12 against Matt Cain with three home runs. Cain has not necessarily been dominant of late, but he continues to pitch better than his record shows. He is not as good on the road as he is at home, posting just a 3-6 record away from San Francisco.
  • Spot Starts: Jason Hammel, Clayton Richard, Guthrie

 

Thursday Notes

  • Josh Beckett has had nothing but struggles, largely stemming from a lack of command in his fastball. The Angels have hit him well overall. Keep Torii Hunter, Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, and Hideki Matsui in your lineups. Look to avoid the 2-for-15 of Alberto Callaspo and the .179 of Bobby Abreu where possible.
  • While you should look to avoid Alexi Casilla and the 4-for-20 of Jim Thome against Mark Buehrle, the rest of the Twins have very good numbers against the lefty. Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, and Delmon Young are all well north of .300 against him, and each has two home runs. Buehrle is just 5-7 on the road this year.
  • Miguel Olivo should get the start against Ted Lilly. Olivo is 5-for-11 against the pitcher with three home runs. He has the only numbers worth noting in this one. Lilly is 3-0 since being acquired by the Dodgers and has posted a 1.89 ERA in those outings.
  • The bats that you would actually want to have in the lineup against Derek Lowe have not done particularly well against him. Adam Dunn has just a .179 average and no home runs in 31 at-bats against him while Josh Willingham is only 5-for-27. Ryan Zimmerman has a .263 mark, and Ivan Rodriguez is at .250. Adam Kennedy is the best of the bunch at .371 in 35 at-bats. Lowe is 0-2 against Washington with a 6.75 ERA this season.
  • Paul Maholm has lost four of his last five starts and has watched his ERA climb nearly a full run in those outings. Batters are hitting .362 against him in August, and he is only 5-7 at home on the season. Dan Uggla is only 3-for-16 against him, but Hanley Ramirez is 6-for-16 with two home runs, and Cody Ross is 4-for-11.
  • Spot Starts: Sean West, John Lannan, Travis Wood

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MLB Fantasy Power Rankings (August 16th)

August 17th, 2010

These rankings are based on a 300 point system, 150 for offensive production and 150 for pitching production. 30 points (1 point for each team) is the most points any team can receive in a given category. For instance, if the Rays lead the league in HR’s they will get 30 points for that category.

 

The 5 offensive categories used:

HR’s, RBI, Runs, Average, and SB’s  

The 5 pitching categories used:

Wins, Saves, WHIP, ERA, and K’s

1.(↑1) Tampa Bay Rays (71-46): The Rays finished with 242 points this week, four points higher than the Texas Rangers. Jeremy Hellickson, the newest member of the Rays rotation and fantasy lineups, sits at 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.60 WHIP. Hellickson and the Rays have the second most pitching points with 145.

2.(↓1) Texas Rangers (67-49): The Rangers scored the second most offensive points this week with 126, just four points behind the next team on this list. Rumor has it the Rangers are interested in Manny Ramirez; understanding an 8.5 game lead in their division certainly isn’t enough to hold off the Angels. Texas is playing for keeps this year and in my opinion is the #1 contender to the Yankees.

3.(─) New York Yankees (72-45): We all know the Yankees are in the postseason and are the favorites to win it all again. However, they rank third on this list yet again, and, as you will read next, they have other competition than just the Rays.

4.(↑2) Boston Red Sox (67-52): The third team from the AL East, the Boston Red Sox seem to be doing anything they can to keep pace with the Rays and Yankees. They brought up Jarrod Saltalamacchia this past week to add a boost to the Youk-free lineup. Salty could end up being a worthy fantasy player in the coming weeks, so stay tuned.

5.(↓1) Cincinnati Reds (67-51): The Reds scored the third most offensive points this week with 117. If you look down a little you will see the second place St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. Although just 1.0 game back of the Reds, they are nine spots behind them in production according to this system. This tells me the Reds are beginning to outplay the Cardinals, and this week they outscored them by 34 total points.

6.(↑1) San Diego Padres (69-47): San Diego leads the league with a 1.21 WHIP and a 3.21 ERA. With that said, let’s be honest they’re not going to win anything with the ninth worst offense. The Padres have just 63 points this week on offense (208 total points).

7.(↓2) Chicago White Sox (65-53): It looks like the White Sox may have completed a deal that worked against them again. Last year they traded for Jake Peavy and gave up Clayton Richard (amongst others), and this year they get Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson. My point is that Hudson is 3-0 with the D-Backs with just four earned allowed in 22.2 IP, while Richard has 10 wins and Peavy sits on IR.

8.(─) Minnesota Twins (68-50): The Twins currently have a three-game lead in the Central, but sit three points behind Chicago on this list. The Twins and White Sox are very close in talent, but what may give the edge to Minnesota is their pitching. At just 1.26, the Twins have the fourth best WHIP in the league.

9.(─) San Francisco Giants (67-52): San Francisco has a much better lineup than the Padres and although they lost the series to San Diego, I see the Giants taking over first...real soon. The Giants sit 12 points behind their division foes, but they have just three more offensive points at the current time. I project the Giants offense to get better and the Padres pitching to slowly decline.

10.(─) Atlanta Braves (68-49): The Fantasy MVP/God who goes by the name "Chipper" is now gone for the year, and possibly for good. This is going to affect the Braves and their league-best 41-16 home record, how much though remains to be seen. The next team is hot on their tail as the top two teams in the NL East are tied at 192 points this week (Braves get the edge because they scored 127 pitching points and this is the highest total in either category for both teams).

11.(─) Philadelphia Phillies (66-51): See Braves.

12.(↑1) Colorado Rockies (61-56): It’s almost that time of the season where the Rockies go on a torrid streak.

13.(↓1) Toronto Blue Jays (62-55): Ricky Romero just signed a new deal with the Jays and should be their ace for at least six more years.

14.(─) St. Louis Cardinals (65-51): See Cincinnati.

15.(↑1) Los Angeles Angels (60-59): Not even Mike Scioscia can get the Angels back in the hunt.   

16.(↓1) Los Angeles Dodgers (60-58): Not even Joe Torre can get the Dodgers back in the hunt.

17.(↑1) Milwaukee Brewers (55-64): Milwaukee has the ninth best fantasy offense in the league.

18.(↓1) Florida Marlins (57-59): After losing three in a row, the Marlins are below .500 at home and on the road.

19.(─) Oakland Athletics (57-59): If you are looking for offense, look away. Just 52 offensive points this week.

20.(─) New York Mets (58-59): K-Rod beat up his girlfriend’s father this past week. Would Mariano Rivera ever do that in public?

21.(─) Washington Nationals (51-67): The deadline is fast approaching to sign Bryce Harper.

22.(↑1) Chicago Cubs (50-68): See Houston.

23.(↓1) Kansas City Royals (49-69): Are the Royals every going to produce a winning team again?

24.(↑1) Arizona Diamondbacks (47-72): See White Sox.

25.(↓1) Detroit Tigers (57-60): The Tigers sit between the Royals and Indians in these rankings. Enough said.

26.(─) Houston Astros (51-65): Houston is 16 percentage points better than the Cubs right now.

27.(─) Seattle Mariners (46-72): The Mariners are inching closer to 100 total points in the FPR (91).

28.(─) Cleveland Indians (49-69): If you are looking for a nice addition to your fantasy team check out  Jeanmar Gomez.

29.(─) Baltimore Orioles (41-77): The Orioles are 30.5 games back in the Wild Card race.

30.(─) Pittsburgh Pirates (39-78): The Pirates are tied for 2nd to last with a .363 Slugging percentage.

Best Offense: (130) New York Yankees 

Best Pitching: (145) San Diego Padres 

Worst Offense: (27) Pittsburgh Pirates 

Worst Pitching: (12) Baltimore Orioles

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Posted in MLB, Minnesota Twins, Rankings/List

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Can Minnesota Twins Win the World Series?

August 16th, 2010

The 2009 New York Yankees set the template.

Open a brand-new ballpark and immediately win a World Series. Could the current, first place Minnesota Twins, do just that? They are, after all, unsurprisingly in first place.

Let's see how they're better than last year.

As long as they don't play their nemesis, the New York Yankee$, who obviously have their number winning 44 of the past 60 meetings, while beating them every time in the playoffs, they should be okay.

Right now, their playoff rivals would be the Tampa Bay Rays, who don't scare me despite their pitching, or the untested Texas Rangers, who I have a feeling will just be happy to be there after a long, 11-year absence.

Next, three of the four Twins' weaknesses in the playoffs to those big, bad Yankees—Justin Morneau, Glen Perkins, and Joe Nathan (along with Jesse Crain) likely wouldn't even face them anyway, therefore increasing our chances. We might have a shot if Crain or Guerrier (2-7) don't see the field.

That is why we got Capps, who may be the X-factor. Don't forget he was hidden in the National League where the Yankees didn't have a lot of chances to hit him around.

For all you Twins fans hoping and praying Morneau gets over his concussion and comes back, I say, forget about it. Don't count on it. If you are, you're only setting yourself up to be hurt when he doesn't come back.

I say, don't shut him down for the season, since we could always use him in the ALCS vs Texas or Tampa, but just move on as if he's not coming back. Similar to what the Jets are doing with Darrelle Revis.

Not only do we not need him, as we're 22-7 in the games he's missed, but he's a detriment when he doesn't show up in New York for those crucial playoff runs. Michael Cuddyer is more than capable of playing first base since he gets the opportunity to do so when Morneau goes down each year with an injury.

Last year, it was his back. This year, it's his head. Next year will be an elbow.

Is there any way we can sign Morneau to an April-July contract since that's basically all he's good for? It seems every year, the cycle is April slump, May-June hot, July hot, then he gets hurt. August-September is anyone's guess.

Morneau hurt? Check.

Cuddyer filling in admirably? Check.

Twins in first place? check.

It's almost like those logical equations in philosophy: Given that Justin Morneau is hurt, and given that Michael Cuddyer is playing first base, therefore, the Minnesota Twins must be in first place and in a pennant race.

 

Other Reasons for Optimism

Last year, the 2009 Twins that went belly up to the Yankee$ had those four playoff chokers on their postseason roster, but didn't have Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome. Both not only bring proven veteran leadership, but also better playoff experience and success.

While Thome and Hudson may only have career averages of .222 and .250 in the playoffs, I'd take either of them over Alexi Casilla and Morneau as was the case last year.

Finally, not only did the Twins actually go 2-4 vs the Yankee$ this year, but Jason Kubel's one HR, three hits, and four RBI in Yankee Stadium with a .375 BA will be huge, given he now has confidence knowing he can break the hex. He hit a whopping .467 in 15 at-bats vs the Yankees.

Don't forget that while 2-4 may not seem like much, it is. It proves we can win after going 0-10 vs New York last year, but more importantly, in taking the last game of each series in New York and at home, we can feel confident knowing the last time we played them in each venue, we won and will hopefully build off that momentum.

 

Yankee Fans Sure to Note the Pitching Disparity

In addition to the Yankees notable All-Star-at-every-position continual theme, greaser Yankee fans will note that the hypothetical pitching matchups don't scare them.

Game One (in New York given they'll get the top seed): Carl Pavano, 15-7, 3.27 vs. CC Sabathia, 15-5, 3.14.

Game Two: Francisco Liriano, 11-7, 3.26 vs. Andy Pettitte, 11-2, 2.88. I'd use Nick Blackburn here as he's the only one I'm confident can go into New York and come out in the seventh with a 1-1 tie as he's done it before. Big Game Nick is what they should be calling him.

Game Three: (MPLS) baby-faced Scott Baker, 10-9, 4.76 vs. AJ Burnett, 9-10, 4.66.

Baker has a 4.09 ERA this year vs. New York, and they are sure to salivate over that 4.76 ERA.

Pettitte is Mr. Automatic when it comes to "must win" as he's done it his whole career.

Even if we get a miracle and get Game One vs. NY which we did in both 2003 and 2004, where we were swept the rest of both series thanks in large part to Pettitte, he's so automatic that we'll have a tough road.

Think I'm jumping the gun in writing this in August? Everything is just so eerily similar to last year. The Tigers are done having went 9-22 since the All-Star break with three losing streaks of four games or more already.

The Sox? Heh, they're predictably falling apart and even if we take two of three tomorrow, we still gain a game on them to go up four, and should we lose the series by winning only one, they gain two and still leave town down a game.  Don't worry about a sweep. At 35-20 at home, that ain't happening.

Maybe we won't run into New York. Maybe the Rays or Texas will take care of our business for us and set up a Minnesota-Texas or Minnesota-Tampa "small market" ALCS from Hell for Major League Baseball.

I know the Twins, with a $96M payroll that ranks top 10 aren't supposed to be considered "small market" anymore, but until they get by the Yankee$, why shouldn't we continue to think of them as such?

If the playoffs started today, the Yankees (72-45, .615) would play the Twins (68-50, .576) since the Rays (71-46, .607) would be the Wild Card and cannot, because of Major League Baseball's stupid rule, play a division rival in the opening round. They should take a page from, I don't know, every other sport and allow this.

As Twins fans, we should be pulling for the current second seed Rangers (67-49, .578) to start losing so we can leap over them in the standings, and as a result take our chances vs Tampa Bay, who we match up better with, since the league won't allow the matchup I really want against Texas.

If it weren't for the damn Yankees, I'd be saying anything is possible with the lackluster Rangers and Rays in the playoffs, and would expect us to make it to the World Series. But until someone knocks New York out, it's hard to get excited knowing our two differing histories.

Let's hope we took good notes from last year.

Statistics and information from ESPN.com directly contributed to the content of this article.

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Posted in Andy Pettitte, Justin Morneau, MLB, Minnesota Twins, Preview/Prediction

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Hudson dominant again, Braves top LA 1-0 (AP)

August 13th, 2010
Tim Hudson needed the support of only one big hit to continue his streak of impressive wins. The Braves' fill-in for Chipper Jones came through in a big way. Hudson extended his dominant stretch of starts with three-hit ball for eight innings and Brooks Conrad homered in the seventh to lift Atlanta to a 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night.

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The NL Waiver Wire, Week 20: Mike Minor, Daniel Hudson and More

August 12th, 2010

 

Welcome back fantasy players, to another edition of The NL Wire.  You may recognize a few of this week’s players as top minor league prospects.  Meanwhile, a few others you may recognize as usual suspects on the free agent wire.  Either way, consider all of them as possible worthy fantasy contributors to your squad and jump on them before the competition does.


Mike Minor, SP – ATL – Owned in 6% of CBS leagues

Minor was recently promoted from the minors to take the rotation spot of another one of Atlanta’s young guns – Kris Medlen.  The former first round, seventh overall pick in 2009 has realized his childhood dream of playing for the team he followed throughout his youth. 

In his first start against the Astros, he had the following line: 6 IP/5 H/3 ER/1 BB/5 K and did not factor into the decision.  In his brief minor league career (four starts in ’09 and 21 in ’10) Minor has shown the Braves’ brass enough to get the nod.  In his starts this year, combined between AAA-Gwinnett and AA-Mississippi, Minor is only 6-7 but has put up gaudy numbers otherwise – K:BB ratio of 146:44, 3.44 ERA/1.15 WHIP and 10.9 K’s/9 innings. 

The downside to his numbers is that he’s already logged 120 innings on the season and is sure to receive the so-called “rookie pitcher treatment” in the final two months.  In fact, with an off day this week, the Braves are already pushing his next start to Tuesday.  On the bright side, he will be on track for two starts in Week 20.

Even though Minor lacks experience (which hasn’t stopped Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake and Drew Storen, his fellow 2009 first round draft picks), he possesses the tools to be a successful starter for Atlanta. He features a fastball topping out in the mid 90’s and a quality slider with bite. 

Minor is worth a look in deeper mixed leagues, and most certainly in all keeper leagues.


Carlos Ruiz, C – PHI – Owned in 34% of CBS leagues

To be perfectly honest, I had to ask myself a number of times whether this selection was worthy of even mentioning.  Ruiz, at age 31, is hardly an unknown commodity or rising star in baseball.  But, he’s being added to fantasy leagues a dizzying rate, jumping from 34% ownership this week to 71% next week.  This will rank him as the number one added player in all of CBS leagues (if you can believe that).  It speaks more to the lack of decent options at the ultra-slim catching position than anything else. 
 
At the same time, he’s been on a tear since he was activated from the DL right after the All-Star break.  In 24 games, he’s batting .313 (25 hits) with three HR and 14 RBI and has an OPS of .858.  These numbers are well above his career stats considering Ruiz is a lifetime .254 hitter with an OPS of .733. 

Ruiz is worthy of a roster spot while he’s hot.  Once his bat starts to cool, be prepared to jump off the Ruiz Express. 


Daniel Hudson, SP ARI – Owned in 36% of CBS leagues

The market for Arizona starting pitchers has been slow to heat up and understandably so.  In fact, no Diamondbacks pitcher is owned in more than 49% of CBS fantasy leagues.  Last week, I wrote about Barry Enright, one of the other young promising pitchers for the D-backs. 

This week, the spotlight is on Hudson, who was acquired in the July 31st trade deadline deal with the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson.  Hudson, a fifth round pick of Chicago in 2008, quickly swept through four levels of their minor league affiliates.  He posted a 14-5 combined record with a 2.32 ERA and 166 K in 147 innings. 

Hudson got his first taste of the majors in ’09 with three appearances out of the bullpen before taking over for Gavin Floyd in the rotation after Floyd was injured.  In three starts for the D-backs since the trade (all wins), he has gone 22 2/3 innings, allowing only four earned runs on 13 hits with 17 strikeouts to only four walks issued. 

With a combined 124 IP on the season thus far, Hudson is also approaching the rookie limit most teams impose on their young starting pitchers.  Even still, he is an attractive option as the D-backs will surely want to see what he can do the remainder of the season.  Pick him up in NL-only leagues, deeper mixed leagues and all keeper leagues. 

Honorable Mention:

Johnny Venters, RP – ATL – Owned in 8% of CBS leagues

Has done a spectacular job all season coming out of the ‘pen for ATL.  In 57 2/3 innings he has posted four wins plus a save.  Throw in 61 K and 1.09 ERA/1.00 WHIP and this makes him a worthy addition in deeper leagues.

Dexter Fowler, CF – COL – Owned in 21% of CBS leagues

Fowler is off to a sizzling start in August - .333 BA/.907 OPS, after a solid month in July - .287 BA/.921 OPS and 25 runs in 26 games plus five SB and 11 RBI.  He’s producing across the board.

Pat Burrell, OF – SF – Owned in 9% of CBS leagues

Pat “The Bat” has resurfaced in San Francisco as an everyday player.  Since the trade from TB - .282 BA/8 HR/23 RBI and a 1.102 OPS (what??).  He’s become a solid contributor.

Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow Rosti on Twitter @TheSportsFariah for more great NL Only advice!

Got any other NL only wire picks?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter@TheFantasyFix

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Posted in Atlanta Braves, Fantasy, Kris Medlen, MLB, fantasy baseball

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