Posts Tagged ‘breakout stars’

2010 MLB Preview: American League

April 5th, 2010

It's that time again.

American League East (predicted order of finish and records)

New York Yankees (98-64) – The defending champs come into 2010 with a potentially better overall team than the one that won it all last year. Younger and more athletic, their lineup is still held together by the star-studded duo of Rodriguez and Teixeira, along with a plethora of extremely potent supporting offensive players.

The rotation is as deep and veteran-laden as its been in years, and a bullpen that came up big in the postseason is still held tight by Rivera at the back end. Without major distraction or injury, the Yankees are easily the best team in baseball, and are poised to repeat as champions.



Boston Red Sox (93-69) – At first glance, the Red Sox seem to be a team that might be missing a piece here or there in some part of their roster, but when it’s all said and done, Boston puts forth one of the premier products in all the league. Their lineup is definitely one to be reckoned with, featuring a core of Youkilis and Martinez.

Also, they shored up their rotation and stayed away from low-risk, high-reward signings as they did last season. Nonetheless, the Sox are one of the best teams in baseball, and are well on their way to a fourth straight playoff appearance.



Tampa Bay Rays (87-75) – The Rays have tried everything to overcome the Yankees and Red Sox in this division, and though they did for one season two years back, they don’t have much to show for their efforts.

They are easily among the more talented teams in the American League, with a lineup featuring Longoria, Crawford, and one of the bigger breakout stars of 2009, Ben Zobrist. If they fall out of contention early, expect a Rays’ fire sale, but with the cluster of young talent that Tampa Bay can roll out there on an everyday basis, the Rays will surely find themselves in the postseason hunt this year.


Toronto Blue Jays (72-90) – A team that many consider a last-place lock may surely be that in their first season after trading Roy Halladay, but they do get a number of young pitchers back from injury to complement a lineup with several budding stars in Hill and Lind.

They’re starting from scratch with a new GM and a new baseball philosophy, but Toronto is still a team that plays fourth (or fifth) fiddle to the three powerhouses that have established themselves in the AL East. In any case, this season, and possibly the next few will be all about the future for baseball’s north of the border dwellers.



Baltimore Orioles (70-92) – A team that has caught on as a trendy pick in the estimation of many doesn’t rank as high on my totem. Undoubtedly, this team has several young stars in Jones, Markakis, and Wieters, but the rest of their lineup is chock full of misfits and over the hill veterans. Their pitching did improve a little bit, but is still nowhere close to where it needs to be for this team to flirt with playing .500 baseball this season.

To me, the O’s seem to be making progress, but when all is said and done, they’re just a team with a lame-duck manager with players that are still too raw for the majors.



American League Central (predicted order of finish and records)

Minnesota Twins (91-71) – The Twins, who won this division last year, carry a ton of momentum into 2010. They have the AL MVP, and one of baseball’s best players in Joe Mauer, return Morneau back from injury, and have a tremendous supporting cast around them in the lineup, as it will be interesting to see how their home field advantage will change in their new outdoor ballpark.

Their starting pitching is certainly a bit lax, but still solid enough, and though they have lost their closer Joe Nathan for the season, that injury is not nearly enough to keep the Twins from winning this weak division.



 Kansas City Royals (81-81) – A surprise pick here in second place of the AL Central, but I think that the teams in this division are so watered-down, that basically anything can happen after Minnesota. The top of their rotation cannot be questioned with the reigning Cy Young Zack Greinke at the top, and they also possess some of the more underrated offensive players in the division in Billy Butler and David DeJesus.

Their bullpen is certainly solid, and though this is a prediction that can go horribly wrong, I still like Kansas City’s chances to stay in contention late into the to summer’s dog days and into the start of fall.


Chicago White Sox (80-82) – Always the most talented team on paper in the AL Central, the White Sox seem to exemplify mediocrity coming into 2010. To their credit, they were certainly aggressive in the off-season, but their priorities may not have been keenly directed.

Their lineup looks a bit old, and they seemed to go for the quick fix mentality with guys like Rios and Pierre. Their rotation is very good, in fact, it’s one of the better ones in the American League. We could see a nice bounce back year for the White Sox, but anything is possible with a loose cannon like Guillen and an aging group for Chicago.



Detroit Tigers (80-82) – I’m not sure I have soured on a team more than I have on the Tigers coming into this season, mainly because of the way they absolutely gagged away a division title last year. They essentially traded away a number of good young assets, and didn’t do a very good job replacing them, but this team still has the pieces to be a factor in this division.

Their rotation is full of question marks, and their lineup is much weaker without a spark-up like Granderson. I could certainly see the Tigers winning 80+ games, but it is much more likely that we will see an utter disaster in Detroit this season.



Cleveland Indians (68-94) – One year after a huge fire sale for Cleveland, this team has fallen from a contender to a cellar dweller here in 2010. Their financial concerns have cornered them into a complete overhaul and made it a certainty that the next few seasons would be all about rebuilding and new beginnings, characterized best by their bringing in of a new manager, Manny Acta.

Their lineup isn’t half bad as long as Hafner and Sizemore stay healthy, but their pitching is really in shambles. I see no reason why the Indians would crawl back into contention this year, as last place is a virtual lock for Cleveland.



American League West (predicted order of finish and records)

Seattle Mariners (90-72) – Without a doubt, the Mariners are the most improved team in baseball coming into 2010. Adding Figgins, Bradley, and Lee to what was an above average team last year makes them a sure-fire contender, especially since Ichiro and King Felix remain as mainstays for Seattle.

They may have trouble scoring runs, but their lineup features about seven players who could hit .300, and the 1-2 punch in the rotation is second to none in baseball. They’re certainly going for it now after this off-season spending spree, as it will pay off when the Mariners coast to a division title in the AL West.



Los Angeles Angels (86-76) – The Angels said farewell to too many core veteran pieces to four-peat as AL West champions this year, but still have a respectable squad that should be able to hang around late into the season. Their overall lineup isn’t as scary as its been when the Halos were at their peak, and their rotation is shoddy and doesn’t really have a bona fide ace.

The one thing going against this prediction is that the Angels, no matter who they have, seem to find a way to get it done. However, this team is no longer the runaway class of this division; they will certainly come back down to earth in 2010.


Texas Rangers (80-82) – Their commitment to rebuilding turned around a lot quicker than expected, and though they did come within a few games of fighting for a division crown last year, this edition of the Rangers, especially in the pitching department is not nearly as imposing as the upbeat bunch that won 87 games last year.

They will certainly be able to hit, but there are injury-prone players up and down this lineup, not to mention they’ll be in a division that is improved this season. Team president Nolan Ryan predicted 92 wins this year, but with such a lousy rotation, playing. 500 ball might not even happen.



Oakland Athletics (68-94) – Few remember when the A’s had a loaded lineup full of veterans and a one through three that no one could match in all of baseball. Well they’re nothing close to that anymore, and it seems like they are submerged in full rebuilding mode for the foreseeable future.

They’re still unwilling to spend, and it shows with the lack of talent and the excuse for a team that will be playing in the Bay Area this year. “Moneyball” has reached an impasse, to be generous, but this team will be lucky to avoid the 100-loss mark in what will be their fourth straight season without a postseason appearance


All American League First Team

C - Joe Mauer, Minnesota
1B - Mark Teixeira, New York
2B - Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay
SS - Derek Jeter, New York
3B - Alex Rodriguez, New York
OF - Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay
OF - Torii Hunter, Los Angeles
OF - Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle

SP - Felix Hernandez, Seattle
SP - CC Sabathia, New York
SP - Zack Greinke, Kansas City
RP - Mariano Rivera, New York
RP - Jonathan Papelbon, Boston

All American League Second Team

C - Victor Martinez, Boston
1B - Kevin Youkilis, Boston
2B - Ian Kinsler, Texas
SS - Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay
3B - Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
OF - Nelson Cruz, Texas
OF - Curtis Granderson, New York
OF - Adam Jones, Baltimore

SP - Justin Verlander, Detroit
SP - Cliff Lee, Seattle
SP - Jon Lester, Boston
RP - Joakim Soria, Kansas City

RP - Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Comments Off »

Posted in American League, Baseball, MLB, Preview/Prediction

Tags:

Under the Radar: Three Giants Prospects to Pay Attention to in 2010

February 9th, 2010

Madison Bumgarner. Buster Posey. Thomas Neal. Zach Wheeler. Dan Runzler. Waldis Joaquin.

When it comes to rookies/prospects currently on the 40-man roster breaking out next season (be it at the Major League or Minor League level), those six are on every Giants fan and baseball expert's list.

However, they shouldn't be the only ones people should be looking forward to this Spring.

Conor Gillaspie, Darren Ford, and Henry Sosa are three guys that could turn some heads in 2010 in the Minors.

At this moment, the three guys are still at least a year or two away from contributing at the Major League level. That being said, they are talented players that should be paid attention to should injury or mediocrity strike the current veterans on the Giants' 40-man roster.

Are there red flags with Gillaspie, Ford, and Sosa? Of course, but if you look at their profiles a little closer, they all have potential of being real breakout stars for the Giants in 2011 or beyond.

Here are the down-lows on the three potential "breakout" prospects:

Conor Gillaspie
2009 statistics in San Jose: 126 (G), 469 (AB), 530 (PA), 134 (H), 97 (1B), 31 (2B), 2 (3B), 4 (HR), 62 (R), 67 (RBI), 55 (BB), 2 (IBB), 68 (SO), 3 (HBP), 6 (GDP), 2 (SB), 3 (CS), .286 (AVG), .364 (OBP), .386 (OPS), .750 (OPS).

Last season, the Giants put Gillaspie on the 40-man roster even though he had only 32 games of professional experience prior to the 2009 season (he had played eight games with the Giants in 2008 and 24 games between rookie and short-season Single-A). At the time, it was deemed a questionable decision. Gillaspie certainly wasn't ready to contribute to the Major Leagues last year, and it showed  in San Jose.

However, though Gillaspie didn't wow everyone in 2009 like many thought he would when he was the Giants' second pick of the 2008 MLB Draft (behind Buster Posey), he is capable of breaking out in Double-A or even Triple-A in 2010.

Why such optimistic thoughts about a guy deemed a "tumbler" by commenters on Fangraphs? Gillaspie's plate patience numbers are very promising.

Gillaspie posted a 10.4 percent walk rate in 2009 in San Jose and also sported a 0.81 BB/K ratio. Why is that such a big deal? Well, if you look at the Giants roster last year, only two guys sported BB/K ratios above 0.70 (Kevin Frandsen, who had a 0.75 ratio, and Ryan Garko, who had a 0.90).

Furthermore, Gillaspie's strikeout rate wasn't terrible at 14.5 percent last season, and it certainly was an improvement from the 18.3 percent strikeout rate he sported in Salem-Kaizer in 2008.

Now, there are still some red flags with Gillaspie's game. He doesn't hit for ANY power it seems (as evidenced by a .386 slugging and .100 ISO) and his defense at third base is very questionable. Also, he isn't exactly a burner on the basepaths either, so he doesn't maximize his ability to get on base.

That being said, if you watch Gillaspie's swing during this Minor League Spring Training game in 2009, he does have a very good looking swing. You can tell that he will have trouble getting a lot of pop behind balls (it seems very short, compact), but it isn't unfathomable to think that his batting style could mirror a Bill Mueller-esque player (whom many experts have compared him to since he was drafted). That isn't exactly a bad thing, especially considering Mueller had a career batting average of .291 and OBP of .373.

Will Gillaspie reach those heights? Maybe, maybe not. At the very least though, I think Gillaspie could put up very similar batting numbers to a guy like Nate Schierholtz (I think their swings are very similar), only with less power, but more plate patience.

Gillaspie will probably never be a high-ceiling guy. He just doesn't have the power to do so. At the very least though, he is capable of being a solid everyday player in the future, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

If his career path was personified in a woman, it would probably not be as hot as Jessica Alba, and look more like Julia Stiles. It won't be smoking or jaw-dropping, but you won't be able to really complain with the the overall profile in the end.

 

Darren Ford
2009 statistics with San Jose: 101 (G), 441 (PA), 380 (AB), 81 (R), 114 (H), 17 (2B), 9 (3B), 9 (HR), 50 (RBI), 35 (SB), 12 (CS), 49 (BB), 97 (SO), .300 (AVG), .386 (OBP), .463 (SLG), .849 (OPS).

Ford was one of the centerpieces when the Giants traded Ray Durham to Milwaukee in 2008. So far, there is a lot to like about Ford. He's fast and can steal a base (he stole 69 in Single-A in 2006 and 67 in two levels of Single-A in 2007 and 62 in two levels of Single-A in 2008). Granted, his stolen base numbers went down to 35 in 2009, but still, he shows a great knack on the basepaths, something that is greatly needed on a Giants roster that just lost their leading stolen base man (Randy Winn).

However, there is one major question mark with Ford: he has spent the last three years in Single-A. That is never a good sign, especially when the guy is 24-years-old and was drafted out of high school.

Still, Ford offers a lot of potential despite a slow start breaking into professional ball. His batting approach has greatly improved since his first year in rookie ball in 2005. While not traditionally a power-hitting player, his OPS was the second-highest of his career in San Jose in 2009 (he posted a .902 OPS in West Virginia in 2007).

Additionally, Ford has maintained an ability to get on base well. Since 2005, he has only had one season where his OPS was below .350 (in 2008, where in two levels of play it was .329).

If anything, if Rajai Davis and Fred Lewis were able to make a baby ("Junior"-style), the player would look a lot like Ford. He has the base-stealing ability of Davis, but has the run-scoring potential of Lewis as evidenced by Ford's OBP numbers. Granted, Ford still has to prove this at higher levels in the Minors. Single-A in all reality is just Single-A.

Nonetheless, if Ford capitalizes on the success he had in San Jose in Double-A or even Triple-A, then it wouldn't be surprising to see Ford get a call-up in August or September.

 

Henry Sosa
2009 statistics with Connecticut: 6-0 (W-L), 2.36 (ERA), 14 (G), 14 (GS), 72.1 (IP), 298 (BF), 61 (H), 22 (R), 19 (ER), 4 (HR), 25 (BB), 44 (SO).

Sosa is an interesting case because his health is such an issue. He's coming off an arm injury in 2008, and had his season shortened in 2009 because of arm fatigue (e.g. his arm wasn't healthy after surgery in 2008).

So, Sosa's stats are hard to gauge because it's obvious it's not the Sosa that pitched in the Futures Game at Yankee Stadium in 2008. His 5.47 strikeout rate and 1.76 BB/K ratio in Double-A last season aren't exactly numbers of a player dubbed one of the most underrated prospects in baseball by Baseball Intellect in 2008.

Then again, maybe the Sosa we saw last year should be one Giants fans should be expecting in the future. After all, arm injuries are incredibly unpredictable things, and we have seen them derail promising pitchers' career (Jesse Foppert comes to mind).

Yet, let's just say Sosa is close to be his 2008 self pre-injury. Let's just say he's recovered fully after shutting it down early in 2009. What can Giants fans expect from Sosa in 2010?

In my mind, with those factors, a lot.

Sosa not only has a good arm, but he looks to have good makeup as well. Unlike some fireballers who come into the league only able to last a few innings, Sosa is a legitimate starting pitcher with gas. He posted incredible WHIP numbers at his first two levels of play (0.99 in rookie ball and 0.89 in Single-A) and even last year, despite battling arm fatigue, his WHIP was very respectable at 1.19.

And, Sosa has also improved gradually with his command and control. Until his arm injury, Sosa was able to strike guys out with great proficiency (he had 11.41, 8.85, 11.03 and 9.27 strikeout rates in various levels from rookie to advanced Single-A from 2006 to 2007), but he still had problems walking guys.

In his first two years of professional ball, he had mediocre walk rate numbers at 3.34 and 3.63 in 2006 rookie level, 2007 Single-A respectively. Then his walk rate skyrocketed in San Jose in 2007 to 5.09, which produced a BB/K ratio of 2.17.

Since 2008, he started to clean up his command issues a little bit. His walk rate was only 2.88, and he had a 3.22 K/BB ratio in 2008. And, though his BB/K ratio was the lowest of his professional career in 2009, his walk rates weren't the problem. In 2009, he posted a 3.11 walk rate, the second-lowest of his career.

With the Giants rotation in solid shape for 2009, Sosa most likely will not be needed unless the most drastic of circumstances happen (think The Simpsons when all of Montgomery Burns' free agents for his company softball team had something happen to them prior to the championship game). However, Sosa will be very interesting to watch in the minors this season.

If he shows that his arm problems are a thing of the past this Spring, Sosa will be a very enticing pitching option for the Giants in late-2010 or 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com



Comments Off »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, SFGate, San Francisco Bay Area, San Francisco Giants

Tags: