Posts Tagged ‘Billy Butler’

Fantasy Baseball: Friday News and Notes

August 20th, 2010

Last Night Rewind

  • Dustin Pedroia was scratched from last night's lineup in Boston with a sore foot. Pedroia hurt the foot (the same one he broke earlier this year) when attempting to steal a base on Wednesday night. Jed Lowrie replaced him at second base. It does not look like a DL matter, but he is going to be day-to-day.
  • Ted Lilly continued his dominance since being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. He worked a complete game last night, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out 11 batters. It was his first complete-game effort since 2004. He has allowed four runs in 28 innings as a Dodger and improved his record to 4-0 in that stretch.
  • The Cardinals acquired Pedro Feliz from the Astros yesterday and expect him to take over at third base. The struggles of Felipe Lopez and the injury to David Freese forced the Cardinals to make a move to solidify that spot. Feliz should continue to be played as normal in all formats, but NL-only owners should react to Lopez accordingly.
  • Lance Berkman was placed on the DL by the Yankees with an ankle injury. Berkman had been hitting just .179 in New York and has largely been an outcast amongst the fans since nearly killing Alex Rodriguez. He had been part-time for the most part, so this should not impact most fantasy situations. Still, take note.
  • Ryan Howard is set to begin a rehab assignment tonight in Single-A. The plan is for Howard to play there and get in another game at Triple-A over the weekend. Aggressive expectations have him re-joining the team on Monday. That would be assuming that everything goes perfectly. Weekly leagues should get him in for next week.

 

Friday Notes

  • Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter all have averages better than .300 against Felix Hernandez. The player that struggles the most is Nick Swisher, who checks in at just 7-for-31. Four of his seven hits have been home runs though. Alex Rodriguez has been held to just a 3-for-13 mark against Hernandez.
  • Chone Figgins is 5-for-12 and Ichiro checks in at 6-for-15 against A.J. Burnett. The New York starter is coming off one of his better outings of the season and has had only one start in his last five that has truly been a disaster. Backing that one out, he has allowed four earned runs in 26.1 innings of work.
  • Jon Lester has allowed only two earned runs in his last 19.1 innings over three starts. He is already 2-0 this season against the Blue Jays, holding them to just two runs on five hits in 13 innings. Only Jose Molina at 5-for-15 is worth starting. Aaron Hill is just 2-for-23 against Lester with Adam Lind at 2-for-14 and Vernon Wells a .208 hitter.
  • Not much action from the Indians against Armando Galarraga. You will want to start Shin-Soo Choo and his .318 mark against the righty and probably avoid the 2-for-14 of Travis Hafner. Otherwise, play them as you normally would. Galarraga is 0-2 in three August starts with a 5.60 ERA and .303 BAA.
  • Jayson Werth is 6-for-12 against Jason Marquis and has pounded two home runs as well. Chase Utley checks in at .473 in 23 at-bats. Look to avoid the 5-for-36 of Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco is only 3-for-15. Carlos Ruiz should be behind the plate as Brian Schneider is just 1-for-21 against Marquis.
  • Alex Gordon is 0-for-11 against Edwin Jackson lifetime, but Billy Butler has done a solid job against him. Butler is 4-for-13 with two home runs. Jackson has been solid since coming over from Arizona. He is 1-0 in three starts and has allowed just three earned runs in 20 innings. In that stretch he struck out 24 and walked only five.
  • Anibal Sanchez has thrown very well in back-to-back outings, giving up only two earned runs in his last 12.2 innings. Sanchez is 3-3 at home this season, but with a very respectable 2.97 ERA in 11 starts. He has already beaten the Astros once this season, holding them to one run in 6.2 innings. Good spot start here.
  • Brett Cecil was lit up his last time out and blamed it on a knee injury that pushed his start back. He had limited work between starts and says that impacted his pitching. Cecil had little velocity on his fastball and already has a 4.03 ERA on the road this season. Beware and leave him on the bench against Boston.
  • Spot Starts: Sanchez, Hellickson, Kennedy

Weekend Notes

  • Chone Figgins is only 2-for-13 against Javier Vazquez and Jose Lopez is just 4-for-19 against him. Look to get Franklin Gutierrez and his 5-for-15 mark in this one. Vazquez is 0-2 in August with a 7.24 ERA.
  • Ricky Romero has been lit up twice by the Red Sox this season, allowing 10 earned runs in 8.1 innings of work over two starts. David Ortiz is 8-for-16 against Romero while Dustin Pedroia is 6-for-11. Victor Martinez and J.D. Drew have both raked against him as well, each hitting better than .357. Avoid Romero here.
  • Freddy Garcia has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts, working a total of only 7.1 innings. While he is 5-2 on the road, the wins have not been pretty. Garcia is holding a 5.25 ERA and batters are hitting .298 against him in those starts. Yuniesky Betancourt has been red hot, but he is only 1-for-12 against Garcia. Butler is 5-for-9.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez is 3-0 against Arizona this season, allowing just two earned runs in 21 innings of work. He has got himself back on track in August, posting a 2.05 ERA in three starts this month. Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Gerardo Parra are the only batters that are posting numbers above .300 against Jimenez.
  • Michael Brantley is 5-for-10 against Justin Verlander and Andy Marte is 4-for-13. The two have the best numbers against the Detroit starter. You can get away with Travis Hafner, who is at .289 in 38 at-bats with two home runs. Avoid Matt LaPorta, who is hitless in nine at-bats and Shin-Soo Choo who is 5-for-28. Verlander has surrendered 12 earned runs in 17 innings against Cleveland this year.
  • Paul Konerko is just 8-for-45 against Zack Greinke and Carlos Quentin has struggled to 4-for-21. Alexei Ramirez is no better at just 3-for-20. A.J. Pierzynski and Alex Rios are your best options. The Chicago catcher has a .419 average against Greinke while Rios is at .346. Greinke has a 4.55 ERA in his home starts.
  • Werth has good numbers against Sunday starter Scott Olsen as well. Werth is 10-for-20 with three home runs against him. Raul Ibanez is 5-for-10 in his efforts. Shane Victorino and Chase Utley have really struggled, hitting .160 and .167 respectively. Utley does have three home runs against Olsen to offset the average.
  • Clay Buchholz is 2-0 and has allowed just one earned run in 16 innings against Toronto this season. In those two starts, he has given up just 12 hits and four walks, good for a WHIP of 1.00. Adam Lind has hit him well, going 9-for-21 against him. Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Vernon Wells have all struggled against Buchholz.
  • Spot Starts: Correia, Niese, Matsuzaka, Garland, Hudson

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Fantasy Baseball: Wednesday News and Notes

August 18th, 2010

 

Last Night Rewind

  • Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia returned to their respective lineups after missing time with injuries. Pedroia went hitless in four at-bats, but he did immediately give the Boston lineup a bit more respectability. He will need to get his timing back and could struggle for a week. The same would be true for Utley. It could take Utley longer to fully be ready to go despite him being in the lineup. He went 0-for-5 last night.
  • Staying in Boston, there are multiple reports indicating that Jacoby Ellsbury could be done for the season. The outfielder is on the DL for the third time this season with a rib injury. Terry Francona indicated that it is going to be a matter of how much he can tolerate, as being 100 percent this year is likely out of the question.
  • Colby Rasmus was not in the lineup last night for the Cardinals. He indicated that he could miss the next four games with a strained calf muscle. If that is the case, daily leagues should certainly get him out of the lineup for Wednesday and consider him a question mark straight through the series against the Giants.
  • Justin Morneau took batting practice yesterday before the Twins' game against the White Sox. Batting practice was initially supposed to be the final step before a rehab assignment, but Morneau continues to battle symptoms upon completion of any activity. Look for an update on his condition today. Fantasy owners are certainly waiting on his return.
  • Seven days ago, Curtis Granderson was not in the lineup as the team looked to change his swing. It certainly seems to be doing the job. In his last 22 at-bats Granderson is hitting .364 with two home runs and two doubles. Over that stretch he has raised his average nine points up to .248. Not stellar, but a step in the right direction.

 

Wednesday Notes

  • Victor Martinez is 7-for-13 against Scott Kazmir with a home run. He has the best numbers on the roster, with Marco Scutaro checking in at .286. David Ortiz is 9-for-44 and Mike Lowell only 10-for-43, but he does have four home runs against the lefty. Adrian Beltre has struggled with a 3-for-20 mark against Kazmir as well.
  • Casey McGehee has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last two weeks, but he is only 1-for-12 against Adam Wainwright. The bulk of the Brewers have struggled against him as well. Ryan Braun is only 7-for-38, and Prince Fielder is just 6-for-35. Even Rickie Weeks is sitting at 4-for-24. Craig Counsell is a .304 hitter in 23 at-bats against him and is the only Brewer with an average better than .265 against Wainwright.
  • Gavin Floyd was roughed up for the first time in a long time in his last start against Minnesota. Floyd is now 0-2 against them on the year, surrendering seven earned runs on 17 hits in 11.2 innings pitched. Denard Span is 10-for-21 against him, and Jason Kubel has four home runs in 32 at-bats to go with a .344 average.
  • Tim Hudson has been on a bit of a roll lately. Hudson has allowed just two earned runs over his last 36.2 innings pitched covering five starts. Josh Willingham is just 1-for-20 against Hudson while Ryan Zimmerman is only 5-for-31. Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Dunn both have solid numbers against Hudson and should be in your lineup here.
  • Alex Gordon has owned Fausto Carmona, going 8-for-16 against him overall. Mike Aviles cracks .300 as well with his 4-for-13 mark. Billy Butler is not stellar at only 5-for-20 without a home run. Carmona has lost three of his last four starts but is 6-3 on the road with a 3.30 ERA.
  • Francisco Liriano is 2-0 in three starts against the White Sox this year, including a win in his last time out against them. While he may have a tired arm, Liriano has still allowed just five earned runs in his last 31.1 innings pitched. He is 6-3 at home this season with a BAA of .226 and an ERA of 2.32. Avoid the 2-for-15 of Alex Rios, but look to use the 7-for-14 of Alexei Ramirez.
  • You will want the 11-for-33 of Carlos Beltran and maybe even the .279 mark of Jose Reyes in your lineup against Brett Myers, but the rest of the Mets have struggled. David Wright has four home runs against Myers but is only 6-for-28 lifetime. Jeff Francoeur is 7-for-38, and Luis Castillo is only 6-for-38.
  • There is cautious optimism on Jeremy Guthrie. The Orioles pitcher is 3-0 in August with a 1.71 ERA and a .171 BAA. In 21 innings this month he has allowed five walks and 13 hits. He has won four of his last five starts overall and worked into the seventh inning in five of his last six appearances.
  • It could be an even better welcome back for Chase Utley today. Utley is 6-for-12 against Matt Cain with three home runs. Cain has not necessarily been dominant of late, but he continues to pitch better than his record shows. He is not as good on the road as he is at home, posting just a 3-6 record away from San Francisco.
  • Spot Starts: Jason Hammel, Clayton Richard, Guthrie

 

Thursday Notes

  • Josh Beckett has had nothing but struggles, largely stemming from a lack of command in his fastball. The Angels have hit him well overall. Keep Torii Hunter, Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, and Hideki Matsui in your lineups. Look to avoid the 2-for-15 of Alberto Callaspo and the .179 of Bobby Abreu where possible.
  • While you should look to avoid Alexi Casilla and the 4-for-20 of Jim Thome against Mark Buehrle, the rest of the Twins have very good numbers against the lefty. Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, and Delmon Young are all well north of .300 against him, and each has two home runs. Buehrle is just 5-7 on the road this year.
  • Miguel Olivo should get the start against Ted Lilly. Olivo is 5-for-11 against the pitcher with three home runs. He has the only numbers worth noting in this one. Lilly is 3-0 since being acquired by the Dodgers and has posted a 1.89 ERA in those outings.
  • The bats that you would actually want to have in the lineup against Derek Lowe have not done particularly well against him. Adam Dunn has just a .179 average and no home runs in 31 at-bats against him while Josh Willingham is only 5-for-27. Ryan Zimmerman has a .263 mark, and Ivan Rodriguez is at .250. Adam Kennedy is the best of the bunch at .371 in 35 at-bats. Lowe is 0-2 against Washington with a 6.75 ERA this season.
  • Paul Maholm has lost four of his last five starts and has watched his ERA climb nearly a full run in those outings. Batters are hitting .362 against him in August, and he is only 5-7 at home on the season. Dan Uggla is only 3-for-16 against him, but Hanley Ramirez is 6-for-16 with two home runs, and Cody Ross is 4-for-11.
  • Spot Starts: Sean West, John Lannan, Travis Wood

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New York Yankees Fall to Kansas City Royals in Water-Logged Game

August 13th, 2010

The deciding factor in a game between the mighty New York Yankees and the lowly Kansas City Royals was a solo home run that came in the fifth inning.

The game featured two rain delays: one 31-minute delay and one two-hour-and-10 minute stoppage.  There was lightning in the sky, but none coming off the Yankee bats as they fell victim to the Kansas City Royals 4-3.

Yankees starting pitcher Dustin Moseley struggled in his fourth start, especially with his control, particularly in the second inning of the game when the Royals got to him for three runs.  Moseley only lasted 4.1 innings, allowing eight hits and four runs.

Kyle Davies held the Yankees scoreless until the third inning, giving up three runs with RBI from Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Lance Berkman.

But, the final blow came in the fifth inning, when Billy Butler hit a solo home run off of the right field foul pole, which was followed by the second rain delay.

Making it an official game, the Yankees were eager to get back on the field to get the win, but the bats did not help their case.

After four shutout innings from Chad Gaudin, Kerry Wood, Boone Logan, and Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position after the longer rain delay.  They were 3-15 with runners in scoring position throughout the entire night.

The Yankees had a threat in the ninth, with men on base the whole inning, including first and third with Robinson Cano at the plate.

Cano ended up grounding to second to end the five-hour-and-36-minute marathon that was Game No. 115 of 162.

Luckily, they did not lose any ground to the Tampa Bay Rays, who fell to the Orioles 5-0.  By the way, Baltimore is 9-2 under former Yankee manager Buck Showalter.

The Red Sox also did not gain any ground on the Yankees, as they suffered their second consecutive walk-off loss.  This time it was to the Texas Rangers, courtesy of Nelson Cruz.

The Yankees hope to get back to their winning ways later today, as Phil Hughes (13-5, 3.92 ERA) and Sean O'Sullivan (0-3, 6.75 ERA) face off at 7:10 in game three of four in Kansas City.

 

Follow Steve Henn on Twitter @steve_henn

You can also check out The Experience, Steve Henn's Yankee Blog

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Can Kila Ka’aihue Make A Fantasy Baseball Impact?

August 3rd, 2010

Kila Ka’aihue has been on fantasy radars for quite some time, despite not being given a fair shake in the Major Leagues. At least, until now… Hopefully…

In 2008 Ka’aihue spent time at Double & Triple-A, hitting .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI as a 24-year old. Yet, the Royals gave him just 21 at bats with the big league club.

In 2009, again Ka’aihue was banished to Triple-A. Maybe it was the disappointment of not being given a true opportunity, but he struggled in the Pacific Coast League, hitting .252 with 17 HR and 57 RBI.

This season he has come storming back. At Triple-A he hit .319 with 24 HR and 78 RBI in just 323 AB, warranting a return to the Majors. Despite having Billy Butler at first base and Jose Guillen at DH, you have to think that the Royals are not bringing him up to simply sit on the bench. He’s going to get a chance to play, one way or another, so it’s up to Ka’aihue to prove that he deserves it.

He has a tremendous eye at the plate, something he has displayed even during his struggles in 2009. This season he has posted a strikeout-to-walk rate of 69-to-88. Last season he was at 85-to-102. For his minor league career he is at 689-to-673.

That’s not a typo. Over 3,360 AB he was walked almost as many times as he has struck out. That’s something that very few can say, especially with the type of power he has displayed. It’s a huge upside and makes him an attractive piece to a lineup.

His average this season is based on an above average BABIP of .343, so you would expect a falloff of some sort. He doesn’t have the speed to justify that type of number, but with his eye he could be above average. While he may not hit .300, he certainly could hit at least .280 or .290 this season. As he actually gets an opportunity and settles in, he could be a long-term .300 hitter.

Ka’aihue puts enough balls in the air to justify the power and think that he could be at least a 25 HR hitter in the Majors. This season he has posted a fly ball rate of 40.3 percent and since 2005 he’s at 45.3 percent.

You can argue that he’s old for the level, or that he’s playing in the Pacific Coast League. In 2008, 26 of his home runs came prior to his recall, however, so that argument is not fully justified. He’s proven before that he has power outside of the PCL and I would expect it to translate. 

Granted, he has no speed but he’s a first baseman. Just how many of them are running all over the field?

The Royals need to finally find out exactly what they have in Ka’aihue. At 26-years old he’s entering his prime, yet hasn’t been given an opportunity to actually help the team.  It makes no sense, but it would appear that finally, they have come to their senses.

In shallower formats he’s not likely to be worth grabbing, but in deeper formats and keeper leagues, he’s certainly worth stashing. While his position eligibility does limit his value (he’s only eligible at DH right now), his bat could potentially be a difference maker.

What are your thoughts on Ka’aihue? Will he produce? How good could he be?

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Fantasy Baseball Underachievers: Time to Cut Ties with Pablo Sandoval?

August 2nd, 2010

Still holding on to Chone Figgins or Aaron Hill? Fantasy baseball owners may want to consider cutting ties with these big name underachieving players. You will be shocked at these comparisons.
 
Check out these numbers and ask yourself whether you would like to add this player if he was available on the waiver wire in your league: .264/.325/.382 with 45 R, 42 RBI, and two SB.

The correct answer is no; leave Pablo Sandoval on the wire.
 
However, it is unlikely that you will be faced with such a situation, as Sandoval is owned in a stupefying 95.4 percent of leagues (ESPN). Fantasy owners always hold on too long because it hurts to let go of an early draft pick or a big name, but sometimes it is best to cut the cord.

So, here are a few guys whom it is time to give up on, and the guys you should replace them with.
 
Percentages are taken from ESPN.


 
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals, 100 percent owned
 
Relax—you do not have to run to your computer and drop Butler, but you have to know that his value is based more on where he was drafted than on his actual performance.

Obviously, his .312 batting average is excellent (14th among big leaguers with at least 250 ABs), but his power numbers are pedestrian for a first baseman (29 players who qualify at first have more homers than Butler’s 10), and his counting numbers are just average (50 R, 51 RBI).
 
The point here is that Butler is easily replaceable, especially since he plays at one of the deepest (if not the deepest) offensive positions in the game. So, if he is not droppable, what should you do with him? Use his draft position value to upgrade through a trade.
 
You might be able to simply do a one-for-one swap of first basemen for a guy who was drafted lower but is outperforming Butler (i.e. Paul Konerko or Aubrey Huff), or you could package Butler and a No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter and try to land an ace for your rotation (see how I ranked the starters for the rest of the season here.)

If you can pull off a two-for-one trade, you can fill your first base slot with...
 
Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins, 52.8 percent owned

 

Billy Butler

Gaby Sanchez

Batting Average

.312

.292

Runs/RBI

50/51

49/49

HR/SB

10/0

12/4

 

Not that you need me to tell you because you can see the chart for yourself, but Sanchez has been every bit as good as Butler this year.

Nothing in Sanchez’s peripheral stats indicates he is due for a significant regression either. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is slightly higher than the average at .323 but is not a significant concern, and his plate discipline is average to above average. According to FanGraphs, Sanchez only strikes out 16.7 percent of the time (sixth best among qualifying first basemen) and has a contact rate of 84.4 percent.
 
Another option to replace Butler if you need power:
 
Ike Davis (27.2 percent owned): .247, 50 R, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB
 
Other guys I would drop for Sanchez or Davis: the previously mentioned Pablo Sandoval (unless you’re using him at 3B) and Derrek Lee (93.6 percent owned).

 

Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves, 100 percent owned
 
Again, you do not have to drop Heyward, but you should not be afraid to do so if there are better options available in your league. Sure, Heyward has tons of talent, and someday he will most likely be an elite player, but the rookie is way overvalued simply because of his name.

His 11 homers and eight steals along with a slash line of .274/.386/.459 are good (especially that .386 OBP thanks to a 13.7 percent walk rate), but he has been at best only a top-40 outfielder so far. With a BABIP of .335 and a strikeout rate of 25.5 percent, it is hard to see Heyward improving significantly this season.
 
So, like Butler, you might be able to swap Heyward straight up for a better outfielder with less name value (i.e. Angel Pagan, Andres Torres, Hunter Pence), or if you can pull off a two-for-one trade, you can fill your vacant outfield spot with...
 
Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles, 62.1 percent owned
 
Scott is a legitimate power hitter. Again according to FanGraphs, he is hitting a home run every 16 at-bats, and he is tied for seventh in the league with a .268 ISO (Isolated Power measures a hitter’s raw power based on his ability to get extra-base hits). If he continues to hit within 10 points of his current .279 average, Scott could easily be a top-30 outfielder the rest of the way.
 
Other options to fill a vacant outfield spot:

Tyler Colvin (25.0 percent owned): hitting .268 with 16 HR and a higher ISO than Scott (.280)
 
If you need speed, Jose Tabata (19.8 percent owned): hitting .294 with 10 steals since he was called up on June 9.
 
Other guys I would drop for Scott: B.J. Upton (98.2 percent owned), Adam Jones (93.1 percent owned), Nick Markakis (95.1 percent owned), Johnny Damon (87.4 percent owned), and Carlos Lee (89.9 percent owned).
 
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student who is beyond depressed that summer is almost over. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

Got any other players you're about to give up on?

Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter@TheFantasyFix

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