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Why the Red Sox Should Let Adrian Beltre Walk This Winter

August 19th, 2010

Adrian Beltre has been absolutely sensational for the Boston Red Sox this year. That's the thing though; it's been one sensational year. Beltre's track record says he will never have a batting average over .300 or an OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) over .900 ever again.

With an on base percentage of .366, Beltre hasn't been on base this much since 2004 when he had an OBP of .388. His 162 game average is .328. As recently as 2009, Beltre was on base at a clip of .304. He has also had an OPS lower than .800 nine times in his thirteen year career.

Can the Red Sox really count on Beltre to produce this much next year? Quite frankly, the reason he signed here in the first place for such a low salary was to set himself up for a long-term deal at age 31. By rewarding him with an extension, the Sox would be giving him the chance to stop working hard.

The last time Adrian Beltre signed a long-term deal was in 2005. He signed a five-year, $64 million deal with the Seattle Mariners after a career year in which he hit 48 home runs with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004. Looks like the Dodgers made the right decision to let him walk.

That's exactly the approach the Red Sox need to take. Beltre's track record speaks for itself. Have a monstrous season, get paid, stop working hard. After 2004, he was supposed to be in the prime of his career at age 26. Instead, he hit .255 with an OPS of .716 and had just 19 home runs in 156 games.

Beltre's defensive prowess has also been grossly exaggerated. He leads all American League third basemen with 16 errors and it isn't the first time he's led the league in errors. Beltre did the same thing in 2007. Somehow he won one of his two gold gloves that year.

Don't get me wrong. I love Adrian Beltre for everything he's done this year for the Red Sox. He's a very good hitter but his motivation has to be a question moving forward. It appears that he only plays well when there's money on the line. An extension would also leave the Sox with little flexibility in the offseason when Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder will likely hit the trade market. Kevin Youkilis could just slide over to third base if the Sox are able to find a power hitting first baseman.

It's simple: Pay Adrian Beltre and you will pay. Just ask Seattle.

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Posted in Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, MLB, Opinion, Theo Epstein

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Minnesota Twins: Can We Get a Little Respect Here?

August 17th, 2010

Yeah, yeah, I know—Brett Favre has returned to the Vikings.

Big deal!

Can someone, ANYONE, tell me they are surprised?

Did this announcement shock anyone in the world?

The Twins Cities is all a buzz—about the wrong sport!

The Minnesota Twins, no let me restate that—your first place Minnesota Twins are back in action tonight with a big three games series against those hated, brawling Chicago White Sox! It's going to be a heated battle, one that could shape the entire playoff landscape of the American League!

Okay, so you can't blame me for trying to hype up the Twins, just a little bit.

This team right now has the third-best record in the American League.

If the playoffs were start this very day, they would host the Wildcard New York Yankees! I kid you not!

You better look quick though, for right now New York is tied with Tampa Bay, and the Rays currently hold a 6-5 edge over the Yankees. That could change very quickly.

This team, the first-place Minnesota Twins, has gone 22-8 since the All-Star break. That's better than the Yankees (16-14), the Rays (18-12), and the Rangers (17-12).

The Twins lead the the American league in hits, triples, batting average, and on-base percentage. They're second in doubles and seventh in home runs. Their home wining percentage of .643, is better than any of the three other playoff bound teams. They have the best fielding percentage at .989, and have committed the fewest errors with only 47.

This is a very good, and exciting baseball team.

Only a week ago they went into a stretch of nine games, six of them against the White Sox, with a one game lead. Going into tonight's three-game series with those same hated White Sox, they are up three games.

At worst, they will be tied for first place when Chicago tucks tail and bolts out of town.

Can I get just a little love for these boys of summer?

The days will turn colder soon enough, and we will all get a chance to watch...

...playoff baseball at Target Field! 

Hold on, there's some breaking news on ESPN...

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Posted in MLB, Minnesota Twins, Opinion

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Yankees-Tigers: Austin Jackson Makes Yankee Stadium Debut

August 16th, 2010

Much of the attention will be on Johnny Damon when the Tigers open up a four-game series Monday night in the Bronx, but there's another Detroit outfielder with something to prove this week.

Austin Jackson is set to make his Yankee Stadium debut in a Tigers uniform, not in the pinstripes many believed they'd see him wearing for many years to come when he was touted as a top prospect in New York's farm system.

Jackson was traded to Detroit in a three-team deal last December that sent Curtis Granderson to the Bombers. Some said Granderson, who clubbed 30 homers at Comerica Park in 2009, would reach 40 blasts this season thanks to playing half his games with the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.

Granderson has just 11 home runs in the middle of August, and while that is 10 more than Jackson has, the rookie leads the veteran in three other key statistics.

Jackson's .303 average is 63 points higher than Granderson's .240. Jackson's on-base percentage is also 49 points better than Granderson's, and he has seven more steals.

Critics have said that Jackson is getting lucky thanks to a high batting average on balls in play, but the outfielder's average has consistently remained above .300 all season and there appears to be no drop-off in site. That despite the fact that the rookie has struck out 123 times, something he should be able to improve as he gains more experience.

And remember, Jackson is playing in his first big league season, while Granderson is in his fifth full campaign and yet he still holds a career .269 average.

In fact, Jackson could be headed for Rookie of the Year honors as he leads all American League first-year players in average, runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, steals and on-base percentage.

Damon is returning to Yankee Stadium for the first time since New York passed on re-signing him this past offseason. His replacement in left field, Brett Gardner is putting up similar numbers, so there are no big regrets there.

Jackson, however, is here to show the Yankees' front office that it made a huge mistake.

 

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Jordan Schwartz is one of Bleacher Report's New York Yankees and College Basketball Featured Columnists. His book Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

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Posted in AL East, Austin Jackson, Baseball, Curtis Granderson, MLB, Opinion, new york yankees

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Will Ian Desmond Be Fantasy Baseball Usable in 2011?

August 13th, 2010

Ian Desmond is a bit of an enigma to me. He has the potential to be a speed/power combo at the plate, but his defense could eventually cost him playing time. He leads all of baseball with 27 errors. No one else has more then 17.

I know, fantasy owners don’t care about defense, but if it starts costing him playing time, it will become a major factor.

As far as his ability at the plate, there is certainly a lot that would be attractive to fantasy owners. Just look at his performance thus far:

351 At Bats
.262 Batting Average (92 Hits)
9 Home Runs
48 RBI
42 Runs
12 Stolen Bases
.296 On Base Percentage
.410 Slugging Percentage
.303 Batting Average on Balls in Play

From a shortstop, there’s a lot to like.  At the same time, there are some underlying numbers that raise a few red flags.

The first problem is his walk rate: he basically has none. He has walked just 16 times, a BB% of 4.2%. Over his minor league career, he walked 203 times in 2,375 AB, a BB% of 7.9%, so there is a little bit of hope for improvement.

That’s something to watch, because if he’s not drawing walks, his ability to score runs will be limited. His BABIP is believable, coupled with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. That’s slightly better then his minor league mark (21.9%), but not egregiously so. There could be a regression, but not a huge one.

So, if he’s going to be a .255-.270 hitter, he needs to draw ample walks to utilize his speed and score some runs. If he can’t do that, his value will be limited.

He’s more of a groundball hitter (49.8%), but does generate enough fly balls (33.0%) to be a 14-17 HR hitter. That’s about the talent he showed in the minor leagues, where he posted a 38.3% fly ball rate.

Desmond turns 25 years old in September, so it’s possible that he could still add a little more power. If he can improve on his 9.8% HR/FB, I could see him developing into a player who hits around 20 HR a year, though I wouldn’t expect much more than that.

The speed pretty much is what it is at this point. He appears to have the stuff to swipe around 20 bases a year, maybe a few more, but that’s about it.

So, when you put it together, you have a .260ish hitter with the potential to go 20/20, though it’s far from a guarantee that he gets there. He may struggle to get on base, limiting his chances to score runs, and his defense may ultimately cost him regular playing time.

Is he worth the gamble? Sure, but right now, I’m not taking him as a starter.

What are your thoughts of Desmond?  Am I being too critical?  How good do you think he could be?

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Posted in Baseball, Ian Desmond, MLB, fantasy baseball

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Atlanta Braves: Who Will Step In As Chipper Jones’ Replacement

August 12th, 2010

In the Atlanta Braves recent win over the Houston Astros, longtime third baseman Chipper Jones tore his left ACL and will need season-ending surgery to repair it.

Right off the bat, this leaves the Braves (and Jones) with many questions. While the long term question facing Jones may be about retirement (which I go into more detail about here), the short term focus for Atlanta is on finding a capable replacement for Chipper.

With the trade deadline already passed, I’m not sure that the Braves would be able to make a deal for anyone better than the players currently on their bench, and they would be wise to simply look within the organization.

 

Omar Infante/Brooks Conrad

The obvious solution to Chipper’s injury is to replace him with some combination of Infante and Conrad. For the next week, this would be primarily Conrad (as Infante has been filling in for the injured Martin Prado). In the long run, the two would share time, while Infante would also continue to back up other positions for Atlanta.

The drawback to this solution is that the Braves lose some of the talent off of their bench, which may be the best in the league. Infante is an All-Star utility player who is invaluable to the Braves, and nobody else on the Braves roster would be able to back up so many positions.

Conrad has also been a huge boost to the bench, hitting multiple grand slams and giving the bench a power bat that it has lacked in recent years.

 

Wes Timmons

Half of you might be saying, “Who?” right now.

Surprisingly, Timmons has been in the organization longer than most of the guys currently on the Atlanta roster. Now in his ninth professional season (all within Atlanta's minor league system), Timmons has proved himself a capable hitter and on-base machine in AAA.

Thus far in 2010, Timmons has compiled a .289/.397/.402 line in Gwinnett. Although he has little power (the same can be said about Infante), Wes has a great career minor league on-base percentage (.382), something that can’t be said about Conrad or Infante.

Over the past two seasons in AAA, Timmons has proved he deserves a shot at the major league level, and the injury to Chipper might finally give him a chance.

 

Glaus to Third, Freeman to First

I’ll admit, this idea may be somewhat of a stretch. But first baseman Troy Glaus has spent the majority of his career playing third base, and he might be able to switch back to third and allow the Braves to call up Freddie Freeman.

While many could (and will) make the case that Freeman deserves to be starting over Glaus, it would appear that Bobby Cox will continue to be loyal to Glaus, and this may be the only way to get the Braves top hitting prospect to the majors.

In 2010, Freeman has a .305/.367/.506 line in AAA (and he is only 20 right now) and was ranked 20th in Baseball America’s mid-season prospect list.

 

What Will Happen

If I had to guess, I would say the Braves will simply let Infante and Conrad split time at third base for the remainder of the season, which probably will be the best for the Braves.

I’m hoping that Wes Timmons will get called up to Atlanta, although the Braves will likely just keep Diory Hernandez on the roster after Martin Prado returns from his injury.

While I like the third option because it gets Freeman to the majors (and the Braves could use a power bat at this point) I don’t really like the thought of putting Glaus at third base. Ideally, Glaus would be benched and Freeman could start at first, but that doesn’t seem to be an option that Braves management wants to pursue.

While nobody will be able to replace the leadership that Chipper had in the clubhouse, Infante and Conrad are capable backups (heck, Infante was an All-Star and Chipper wasn’t) and the Braves would be wise to use this opportunity to give them more playing time.

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Posted in Atlanta Braves, Baseball, Breaking News, Brooks Conrad, MLB, NL East, Omar Infante, chipper jones, troy glaus

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