Archive for the ‘Adam LaRoche’ category
MLB Trade Deadline 2010: Top Five Arizona Diamondbacks on the Hot Stove
July 10th, 2010CBS Commissioner: Looking for Value? Take an Arizona Diamondback
March 31st, 2010As I mentioned in my first article introducing the Bleacher Report Professional League, I will be writing updates on the league regularly about transactions, the draft, and results throughout the season. Tomorrow night is the draft, and I will be recapping the results afterwards, here is a link to the league:
During the draft, I will be looking for value picks to compensate for positions I missed earlier in the draft, and after doing some research I have come up with some data that I have found particularly interesting.
The rest of this article will be dedicated to the value of most of the Arizona Diamondback's roster, but before you read be sure to check out the Bleacher Report and CBS Commissioner discount:
http://baseball.cbssports.com/splash/baseball/spln/mgmt/offer/c?ttag=fbbc10_on_all_br_os_na_0001
Value picks are the key to a draft, everyone gets a shot to get premier players in the first three rounds. But what your draft success hinges on is good value picks later in the draft, where you get productive players whom outplay their average draft position.
There are tons of value picks spread out throughout the baseball world, all it takes is a little bit of research.
The team with the most value picks, in my opinion, is the Arizona Diamondbacks. I may be higher on this team than some, or maybe even most, but the talent on their offense and in the back-end of their bullpen may be extremely undervalued.
Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, and Dan Haren are all top-10 at their respective positions, so they won't be included in this piece. Brandon Webb, normally a top starter as well, will begin the season on the DL so he will not be included either.
Let's take a look at the undervalued Diamondback's lineup and roster.
Catcher- Miguel Montero, Ranked No. 8
Montero burst onto the fantasy scene last year, posting 16 home runs in just 470 plate appearances to go along with a .295 average. His average probably will be closer to the .275-.285 mark but his home runs should boost up to around 20 given a full season of plate appearances.
Kurt Suziki is currently ranked ahead of Montero on CBS fantasy rankings, and Kurt hit one less homer (15) than Montero in 144 more plate appearances, and also had a considerably lower batting average at just .274. Even if Montero's average is similar to Suziki's, his power will be much better and the better pick would have to be Montero.
Russell Martin is also ranked ahead of Montero, but Russel's continually decreasing average (.250) and power (7 HR) reached a low last season and expecting him to rebound to '07 form is more hopeful than wise.
First Basemen- Adam LaRoche, Ranked No. 24
Over the past four seasons, LaRoche has averaged a .276 avg, 86 rbi, 76 runs, and 26 HR. These are decent but definitely unspectacular numbers for a first basemen. What makes LaRoche valuable, is that if you draft him and store him on your bench or in your utility spot, he has the chance to be your most productive player in the second half.
Over the same time period, LaRoche has averaged a .312 avg, 43 rbi, 35 runs, and 14 homers in just the second half. These are very good second half numbers, as the second half is about 73 or 74 games compared to 88 or 89 in the first. So after the all-star break, Laroche will produce like a 30-homer first basemen with a .312 average, impressive numbers.
I'm not telling you to start LaRoche the whole season, but he is definitely an undervalued first basemen and storing him on your bench and starting him later in the year could give you seriously help your team later in the season, you know, when the playoffs are and everything.
Second Basemen- Kelly Johnson, Ranked No. 20
Johnson had an injury-filled and mismanaged year in 2009. His manager, Bobby Cox, decided not to play Johnson against left handed pitching.
Johnson is one of the rare, very rare, left-handed hitters that hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching. Johnson has a career OPS of .808 vs. left-handers and .765 OPS vs. right-handers.
Bill James projects Johnson to hit 14 homers, steal 10 bases, and hit for a .274 average. These are pretty solid numbers as a 2B and there is the potential for Johnson to outplay these projections as he plays his first season in hitter friendly Chase Field.
Shortstop- Stephen Drew, Ranked No. 11
Drew battled some health problems last season, but as we saw from Troy Tulowitzki, an season in which your productivity decreases due to injury does not devalue you as a fantasy player.
Drew hit 21 home runs and had a .291 average just two years ago, and if he gets 650 plate appearances he should be able to come close to those marks again.
The average may be a bit lower than that of a Yunel Escobar, but the power Drew has is more reliable than Yunel's. Drew is a solid shortstop to grab later in the draft but only if you are confident that you can get steals in other places, as Drew's career high in steals is just nine.
Outfield- Connor Jackson, Ranked No. 76
Jackson too had an injury-riddled 2009, mostly due to a fever, but he is in full health and ready to start the year off right in 2010.
Jackson will never be mistaken for a big power threat, but he did manage two straight seasons of 15 homers a few years ago, which was unacceptable as a first basemen but decent as an outfielder if he has a good average and speed.
One good thing about Jackson's game is that he is running more and more each year. Two years ago, he stole 10 bases and in just 110 plate appearances last year he stole five.
In comparison, Adam Jones is ranked 34 and he had 19 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a .277 average. In Jackson's last full season he hit 15 home runs, with 10 stolen bases, and a .300 average. Jones ranking is mostly based on potential, but Jackson is certainly worth a late round pick if you are looking for a reliable outfielder who can help a bit in all five standard categories throughout the season.
Outfield- Chris Young, Ranked No. 68
Young will never help your average out, but he can help in all other categories as he is a great power threat and very good on the bases. He played in just 134 games last year and still managed to hit 15 home runs and steal 11 bases. These aren't phenomenal numbers, but with a seasons worth of at bats and a better contact rate Young could be a 20/20 player for the second time in his career.
His OPS has fallen in each of the last two years, so there is no guarantee that his contact will get better, but as a potential waiver wire or late-round pick he is a player worth taking a risk on. His major league walk rate is continually rising, so at least one thing has been going forward for Young the past few years.
Closer- Chad Qualls, Ranked No. 22
The closer position is always full of sleepers and undervalued power arms and this year is no different.
Qualls is a control master, walking just seven in 52 innings last year while striking out 45. The strikeouts are not terribly impressive, but they are pretty solid and not far from a strikeout per inning. Qualls has been a very good reliever his whole career and now that he has the opportunity to close games he is finally useful in the fantasy world.
It is hard to project which closers will perform well and which will perform poorly, but reliable and consistent relievers like Qualls are always a good bet when looking for saves and a low ERA. The improved Diamondbacks roster should lead to more opportunities for Qualls.
Overall Analysis
Overall, there are definitely better options than the aforementioned players, but for where they are going in their drafts they are solid value picks. The Diamondbacks are overlooked by most of the baseball world, and their fantasy production is overlooked as well. If you are looking for a player who will produce late in the draft, just look for a Diamondback and there's a good chance he will help your team succeed.
CBSSports.com is a Bleacher Report partner and paying sponsor of the Bleacher Report baseball communities. This post is one of a series of sponsor-endorsed posts related to the CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League.
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Getting Adam LaRoche Late
January 15th, 2010It is now official: The Diamondbacks have signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a one-year deal with an option for 2011.
LaRoche hits most of his home runs to his pull field, so Chase Field should be a nice fit for his swing. You can see the image at hittrackeronline.com.
Chase Field itself is one of the better hitter's parks in Major League Baseball. Park factors from The Bill James Handbook indicate that it is seven percent easier to hit home runs at Chase Field than a neutral park.
Below are a few reasons why it is such a better hitter's field than say Atlanta or Pittsburgh, where LaRoche used to play home games. Notes taken via this article from azcentral.com in 2006:
"It sits at an elevation of about 1,100 feet, second only to Coors Field. A ball that goes 400 feet at Yankee Stadium, which is near sea level, would go approximately 408 feet at an elevation roughly 1,000 feet higher, according to The Physics of Baseball, a book by Yale University physics professor Robert Adair
"In the 700 regular season games played at Chase Field (data from 2006), teams combined to score an average of 9.27 runs with the roof closed. Open the roof, and the number climbs to 10.44.
"The numbers are nearly as pronounced when the club swings open the panels, the giant window-like sections high up beyond the outfield.
"So why the huge disparity? Experts say temperature and wind could be factors.
"'Roughly speaking, in a 10-degree-warmer temperature, the ball will go three or four feet farther,' Adair said this week."
While it may be easier for LaRoche to hit home runs in Arizona, let's not run out and grab him in the 10th round or anything. LaRoche has always struggled a bit against left-handed pitching (career .251 AVG), which holds his AVG down overall.
He also, for whatever reason, always seems to struggle in the season's first half, as evidence shows: a career .252 AVG with 63 home runs in the first half and a career .300 hitter with 73 home runs in the second half.
At this point in his career LaRoche "is what he is," but even that may make for better numbers in 2010. While struggling to hit for AVG against left-handers last season, LaRoche still hit about one home run every 28 at-bats. That rate is not nearly as good as his power numbers show against righties, but it is close enough to suggest his overall power won't suffer.
If LaRoche can crack a few more home runs in his new home park, he could hold value as a late round corner infielder or a great guy to have on your bench. By no means should owners reach to get him, as he offers little else outside of power, but by no means should we pass him up completely. If I were a betting man, I would bet LaRoche hits closer to 30 home runs than 20 in 2010.
Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com
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Adam LaRoche Picked Up by Arizona Diamondbacks to Man First
January 14th, 2010It seemed like just last week it was reported that the Arizona Diamondbacks were at their stated payroll limit and would most likely not be making any other roster moves, except perhaps adding a few non-roster invitees to Spring Training.
The news this morning came as somewhat of a surprise when word leaked that the Arizona Diamondbacks had signed free agent Adam LaRoche to a one-year contract.
Details of the deal are still sketchy, but at this point it has been suggested the deal would be worth somewhere between $4-5 million. There have been unofficial comments that the deal may include an option for 2011.
Perhaps it should not come as a surprise, since Arizona has been looking to improve at first base all offseason. The Diamondbacks believed they had found an answer by trading backup catcher Chris Snyder to Toronto for Lyle Overbay. That deal was vetoed by the Blue Jays after they gave Snyder a physical after his back surgery.
As of yesterday, it looked as though the Diamondbacks' everyday first baseman would be Conor Jackson, with Gerardo Parra and Eric Byrnes getting the left field duties.
Diamondbacks fans were not necessarily enthusiastic with that scenario, and now it seems as though the team was not that thrilled with it, either.
General Partner Ken Kendrick had suggested in previous comments that the payroll figure could be extended for the right situation, but the team would not spend money just for the sake of spending money.
LaRoche, who began the 2009 season in Pittsburgh, was traded to the Boston Red Sox, and subsequently traded to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Casey Kotchman. LaRoche has been described as a slow starter, struggling in the first part of the season but ending strongly.
Looking at his career numbers, LaRoche is clearly an improvement over what the Diamondbacks saw at first base this past season. Besides offering additional power from the left side of the plate, LaRoche also offers better defense than the Diamondbacks had last season.
Not all of LaRoche’s numbers are positive, though. Like many other power hitters, he is susceptible to striking out. Over the past four seasons, he has had strikeout totals of 128, 131, 122, and 142, respectively.
Compared to Mark Reynolds, these totals are small, but Diamondbacks fans should be prepared to see this team continue its assault on the team record for whiffs.
It will be interesting to see if LaRoche starts out quicker this season given his one-year contract status. Perhaps like Doug Davis last season, he will change his approach to showcase his skills to others in hopes of getting a longer term deal next offseason.
This looks to be a great deal for the Diamondbacks. It does come with its own set of questions. Does this signing seal Eric Byrnes' fate of being released since he is now the fifth outfielder on the roster? Will Brandon Allen earn a roster spot or will he be back in Reno this season?
And perhaps the most perplexing question of all: Why would Adam LaRoche turn down a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants last week to sign a one-year deal for less money with Arizona?
Seriously, are the Giants that bad? Last year San Francisco made a legitimate run at the playoffs and seemed to be a team on the rise, something that could not be said about the Diamondbacks last season.
I was about to suggest that the Arizona Diamondbacks roster overhaul now seems to be complete, with Spring Training just 37 days away, but if the LaRoche signing taught us anything, it’s that teams are never done dealing even if they tell you they are.
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Adam LaRoche: New York Mets’ Missed Opportunity
January 14th, 2010When news came down last night that Carlos Beltran was going to be sidelined for the next eight to twelve weeks and probably miss the beginning of the season, my immediate concern was for the Mets' offense.
Defensively, the Mets have at least two average options to replace Beltran in Fernando Martinez and Angel Pagan. But offensively, neither guy will come close to replacing Beltran's production or impact at the plate. And even though the Mets have signed Jason Bay, the reality is that their offense will take a big hit without Beltran.
What made the Beltran news even worse for the Mets is that the free agent options to replace Beltran are dwindling.
Marlon Byrd is off the market. Mike Cameron is off the market. Coco Crisp is off the market. So unless the Mets want to take a chance on Rick Ankiel, there really is no free-agent option out there that is significantly better than Pagan or Martinez.
If the Mets were going to stick with Pagan/Martinez in center, where was the offense to come from? As I scrolled through the free agent market last night, the one segment of the market that I felt the Mets could have taken advantage of is at first base.
With Adam LaRoche and even Russell Branyan still out there, the Mets could have signed a power hitter to a low-cost contract, who, hopefully, would have picked up the offensive slack with Beltran out of the lineup and would not have blocked Ike Davis.
With Beltran fully healthy and productive, the Mets can afford to live with Daniel Murphy at first base, but without Beltran, it's much tougher to depend on Murphy as their everyday first baseman.
Murphy is a nice player who could develop into something special, but if the Mets are serious about winning in 2010 with or without Carlos Beltran, then they will need more offensively out of first base.
But this morning, LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks.
It's tough to fault the Mets for not signing LaRoche only 12 hours or so after losing Beltran, but somewhere in his mind, Omar Minaya should be upset that a player of LaRoche's caliber, who would have been a great fit for the "pre-Beltran 2010 Mets," signed for such a reasonable amount of money and such a short period of time.
We'll see how the Mets choose to move forward.
Obviously, they think that Benjie Molina will help pick up the slack offensively, but his bat alone will not be enough. It would not surprise me to see the Mets not make any major moves and simply survive until Beltran comes back, but as we saw last year, that plan is shaky.
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