Major League Baseball: Finding a Market Inefficiency

March 10th, 2010 by Greg Fertel No comments »

While running a major league team, there are only so many ways you can gain a real advantage. Having more capital then your opponent is the easiest way, but teams continually look for other ways to better themselves at an inexpensive price.

This is termed a market inefficiency. Basically, the best thing a team can do is find something of value that isn't being valued properly on the open market.

While many people ignorantly think Michael Lewis's Moneyball is about sabermetrics, this is what it was really about: finding market inefficiencies and using them to your advantage. The biggest example that was used in this case was on-base percentage, which was significantly undervalued at the time.

At this point, something as simple as OBP is valued correctly. In recent years we've seen teams like the Mariners shift to optimizing defense at a well below-market rate.

It seemed that this was the new market inefficiency, but this seemed to right itself quickly. This offseason, we saw Boston look to improve their defense through free agency by acquiring defensive specialists Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron while moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left field.

While Boston may seem to be a continuation of getting defense on the cheap, they actually didn't pay too much below market value with these two signings. This suggests that teams are much more aware of the impact defense can have and it can no longer be seen as a market inefficiency.

These things work in cycles. It's very hard to find a way to game the market consistently without other teams catching up to you. In a recent post on FanGraphs, Dave Cameron talked about efficiency wages . In his piece, he briefly mentions nutrition without getting into it too much.

See, MLB just raised the minor league per diem five dollars all the way to $25 per day. Now, if you're eating for one and cooking your own meals, that's fine. I cook many of my own meals and spend less than $25 a day.

The issue here is that these are not people who live on a regular schedule. They're not working nine to five jobs; they're traveling all around whatever region they're in and end up eating out for many of their meals. Now you can see why that's a struggle. If you want three meals on $25...you're going to be getting food that is neither nutritious nor particularly good.

Dave suggests a widespread increase of quality of life for minor leaguers. He proposes that you not only raise the per diem, but you get better buses as well. For the Yankees, these two things should be a no-brainer. Having updated, comfortable buses for each minor league affiliate would cost relative pennies for the Yankees. We can't be sure how much this would benefit the team in the long run but improving the day-to-day life of the team's prospects can't hurt.

This also got me to thinking about the recent film Sugar, which follows a young pitching prospect out of the Dominican Republic. Now, I don't want to spoil the film for you if you haven't seen it yet (and I recommend you do ), but the character Sugar could have benefited from these things and many more.

 

My Recommendation for the Yanks

With the Yankees' financial advantage, they should take this whole idea a step further. Considering that they are so active in the international free agent market, they'd benefit the most from it anyway. Instead of just increasing the per diem, encourage players to eat healthy. Maybe if there is a restaurant in an area a team is visiting that specializes in healthy food, offer incentives to eat there.

When the team is home, serve healthy foods. Substitute regular pasta, white rice, and white bread out; replace them with whole wheat pasta, brown rice, and whole grain bread. Obviously, I'd take it a bit further, but you get the point. Simple changes like that would not even cost very much, but would increase the health of the players.

I haven't spent enough time around the low minor leagues to know what goes on in Low-A ball, but teams should go out of their way to make sure that the prospects are comfortable and happy. In Sugar, we saw that might not always be the case.

This would not only benefit the players currently in the system. It's possible that young ballplayers would be even more attracted to signing with the Yankees because they offer a better quality of life.

As the first commenter on Dave's post points out, this would probably end up causing other teams to follow suit, which would just raise prices all around. If that happens, then so be it.

This would just mean that corporate suits end up with a little less money while these 18-year-old kids in A-ball get an increase in their quality of life. I know I don't have a problem with that.

If other teams didn't follow, then the Yankees could have found themselves another efficient way to spend their money as they streamline talent to the major league team.

Find more great content at Pending Pinstripes .

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Players I Love: The Humbled Studs:Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Coghlan

March 10th, 2010 by Nino Colla No comments »

While I tend to gravitate towards the players in the game that don’t get big time recognition, I still find a place in my heart for people who do.

Still, you aren’t going to find me talking about why I love Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer in this space. Although, the sport is in a great state with those two as the game’s best ambassadors.

No, today’s players I love are guys who’ve built up a little bit of a following. Guys who’ve had some early success at the major league level and are right on the brink of taking steps up the ladder of appreciation amongst more casual fans.

Today is a little bit different in another instance because the players I’m talking about are not guys that I know much about outside of watching them play and the statistics I see. A common trait of the players I’ve talked about this week has been a deeper knowledge about what they are about or what their play represents.

I don’t know much about Troy Tulowitzki or Chris Coghlan outside of the 32 home runs and .321 average they owned in 2009, respectively. However, I did find a common trait between them when I did some digging.

I concluded that both guys have already been humbled. They’ve experienced success and failure, triumph and tragedy. I guess what I like most about them though is the talent or the potential they represent for the future of baseball and the humbled experiences have set the stage for that.

Troy Tulowitzki was finally able to build off his fantastic rookie year in 2007. He’s also 25 and not done getting better.

The strong-armed shortstop out of Long Beach State has already done a career’s worth of exciting things in his short career. He’s turned an unassisted triple play and hit a NL rookie shortstop record 24 home runs in 2007.

However the most memorable part of that 2007 year was what all those home runs helped lead the Rockies to. Tulowitzki was 4-for-7 in the tie-breaking 163rd game against San Diego, and he even scored the tying run in the 13th inning.

The shortstop did struggle in the postseason though, despite Colorado winning the entire National League. But after an injury plagued 2008 season, Tulowitzki re-established himself as one of the elite up and comers in the game.

How many shortstops can hit 32 home runs and steal 20 bases? This isn’t Jhonny Peralta masquerading as a shortstop either; this is a legitimate gold glove caliber defender playing the position.

More recently, the man they call “Tulo” has been able to temper his emotions and center his focus within the game.

After living with every at-bat as it was his last for most of his baseball career, Tulowitzki told the Denver Post a few months ago that the struggles of 2008 helped him become a better player and teammate.

“It's not that my goals have changed. I want to win a World Series. I want to win the MVP. And I am not afraid to throw that out there, because that's how I feel. But at the same time I have learned that this game is not life and death."

Sometimes players have to be humbled before they can take the appropriate step towards greatness. In Tulowitzki’s case, he took one step forward, but was forced to retrace it in order to take two forward.

And then there is some that may have already taken those backward steps before you notice them.

I think Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan fits that description.

On the surface, you have a kid who busted onto the scene last year and led all major league hitters in average after the All-Star break.

Instead of slowing down, Coghlan sped up and carried a remarkable .372 average in the second half of the MLB season. He finished sixth in the NL in batting average with .321.

With all the statistics and the NL Rookie of the Year award, it would appear as if this kid needs to be humbled much like Tulowitzki was before he takes the next step.

Coghlan was already humbled about nine years ago.

Tim Coghlan died in 2001 after he was involved in a traffic accident while on an out-of-town business trip. Chris was 15-years-old at the time of his father’s death.

Fortunately, he had a support system with his mother, his faith, and a pair of trainers from The Winning Inning Baseball Academy located a short distance from his old home in Florida.

It was difficult, but with that support system and his own inner-drive, it would appear as if Coghlan has seen what he needs to see to maintain his success.

If his father’s untimely passing doesn’t carry built-in motivation and drive to be the best player you can possibly be, then I’m not sure what does. I don’t know if Coghlan needs a humbling baseball experience, but I’m sure he’s developed the perseverance to get through it.

But really, how do you improve on a .321 average in your rookie year?

Well for one, Coghlan only played in 128 games with 504 at-bats. Yet he still managed to get 162 hits in that amount of time. Can he hit .321 again? Who knows, probably not. But that doesn’t mean he won’t grow as a player.

Just look at the situation he was thrown into, playing a new position and hitting in a new spot in the lineup at the major league level, left field and leadoff, and how he excelled. That’s someone who can handle the pressure.

That’s someone who can handle anything that could potentially be thrown at him.

You’ve got two players, young players might I add, that have already had a large amount of success rather quickly. But for both, it feels as if the best has yet to come.

Two excellent players who’ve already had to go through some learning experiences before they could move forward as better baseball players.

I love their potential. I love the perseverance through those tough times, not taking their talent and that potential for granted. You see too many young players today, especially highly touted ones, not fulfill what is expected of them.

And I guarantee you a fair portion of those players don’t fulfill expectations because they themselves lose focus, or they don’t have the right guidance.

Chris Coghlan and Troy Tulowitzki have the right focus and have received the proper guidance and I have no doubt they’ll both be just fine.

 

"Players I Love" is a part of a month-long series of articles that are previewing the 2010 MLB season. For the other parts of "Players I Love" and a schedule, click here .

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Dodgers Spring Injuries: Ho-Hum

March 9th, 2010 by Todd Boldizsar No comments »

With Spring Training in full swing, the Dodgers injuries are starting to tally. However, fans shouldn't panic—this sounds like the same record we have listened to for years. For the past decade, the Dodgers have had preseason injuries that make the news, and most often they make the news simply because it's Spring Training, and nothing else is going on.

Russell Martin, Casey Blake, and Cory Wade are already making headlines with reported injuries, but the Dodgers organization and the players don't seem concerned.

Casey Blake took the day off against the Rockies with sore ribs but is confident he will be ready for Opening Day. He is able to swing a bat slowly with limited pain. He mentioned that if this situation occurred in the regular season, he would probably play through it, and if it were playoffs, he wouldn't miss an inning.

Martin suffered a torn groin but mentioned the pain was so mild it seemed as though it was just early-spring soreness. The doctor-recommended recovery time is four to six weeks. Martin received a cortisone shot Tuesday to expedite the healing process, and those familiar with the catcher and his work ethic know he will be doing whatever he can to get back in game shape by the start of the regular season.

Los Angeles does seem to be taking it slow with reliever Cory Wade. His chronically ailing shoulder was examined via MRI, and tests revealed no structural damage. He also received a shot to the shoulder, and manager Joe Torre says Wade will be taking several days off as a precaution and will then be re-evaluated.

It seems every year players return from the break a little stiff in the joints and in need of a little work. As the Spring progresses, don't fret over reports of injuries unless the Dodgers make no light of the situation. Blake and Wade will be ready to follow-up on their productive campaigns from last season, and Martin will be ready to turn things around. Dodgers fans, have no fear.

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Milwaukee Brewers by the (Jersey) Numbers: No. 38: Chris Narveson

March 9th, 2010 by Adam Rygg No comments »

So the plan was to write this series of articles as the days ticked down to Opening Day. With the schedule that I was to commit to, an article on Chris Narveson should have been written a mere five days following my last posted article and 11 days ago. Suffice it to say that real life got in the way of this hobby, and I fell behind.

But fear not, loyal readers. I will catch up over the next couple of days and be right back on track.

With that said, allow me to discuss the aforementioned Chris Narveson and tell you my opinion on his prospects for the 2010 season.

Narveson had two separate stints with the Brewers in 2009. They couldn't have been more separate in fact.

His first term lasted 10.2 innings over nine appearances. In those nearly 11 innings, Narveson compiled an ERA of 8.44. Being out of minor league options, the Brewers took a risk by exposing him to waivers in order to get him back down to Nashville when the numbers just weren't cutting it.

When the need arose again for Narveson's left-handed delivery, the results were much better.

An ERA of 2.48 compiled over 36.1 innings lowered his season ERA to 3.83 and showed Milwaukee that they just might have something in Narveson after all.

The problem now, however, is that when a player is out of options, they are out of options. The Brewers were able to sneak Narveson back to the minor leagues through waivers once. After his performance at the end of last season, they most likely won't be so lucky should they try it again.

This leaves the team in a potentially awkward position. Officially, Narveson is in competition for one of the two unsettled spots in the rotation. Realistically, though, Narveson has a better chance at making the team in the bullpen. He no doubt plans to make the decision difficult for Doug Melvin and company with his play.

Should Narveson make the roster, at whose expense would it be? Dave Bush or Manny Parra? Perhaps an established bullpen arm like Carlos Villanueva? It will come down to whom the Brewers feel like they can give up without making the bullpen suffer too much for it.

Narveson remains a longshot, but when you're out of options, the team always gives you enough rope to either hang yourself or hog tie your competition.

I know Narveson won't make the rotation on Opening Day (barring injury of course), but as to whether or not he makes it as a member of the 'pen...I guess we'll just have to find out together.

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Peguero or Ford: Which CF Prospect Has a Brighter Future for the Giants?

March 9th, 2010 by Kevin O'Brien No comments »

The fact of the matter is this for Giants fans: Aaron Rowand is going to be the Giants center fielder on Opening Day, and he most likely is going to bat leadoff unless one of three things happen:

1. Mark DeRosa gets hurt again this Spring Training and is unable to play on Opening Day, which forces manager Bruce Bochy to play either Eugenio Velez or Andres Torres in left field (who would be slotted in at leadoff because of their speed).

2. Velez goes nuts this Spring Training (entirely possible) and Bochy somehow is convinced that despite his negative UZR at the position, Velez can start second base. So, Bochy plugs in Velez at second over Uribe (because Freddy Sanchez, the "$12 Million Man" will miss Opening Day) and consequently at leadoff despite his .308 OBP last season.

3. Rowand gets hurt sometime during Spring Training and Torres, Rowand's backup, gets the nod on Opening Day. Because of Torres' speed, Bochy gives him the leadoff spot.

Overall, only one of the options I like, and even then, I don't like it all that much (I don't think it's very hard to guess which option it is). That being said, when talking about Rowand, a very important notion does come up concerning the center fielder:

Who do the Giants have in the farm system to replace him or succeed him?

Right now, there basically are two candidates:

Francisco Peguero and Darren Ford .

Both center fielder prospects are on the 40-man roster heading into the 2010 season and are currently playing in Spring Training games down in Scottsdale with the Major League team at this moment. There is a lot of promise and hype surrounding the two speedy center fielders, especially after their solid 2009 campaigns in the minor leagues.

Yet, as we know, two players can't play the same position. So, which prospect is better? Which prospect should Giants fans be expecting to start in center field when Rowand (and his ridiculous contract) finally leave San Francisco?

Let's take a more in-depth look at the two young outfielders.

Why Giants Fans Should Expect Big Things from Peguero:

Peguero, a Top 10 prospect in the Giants system according to some experts , is being touted as a "Pablo Sandoval without the Power but More Speed"-esque hitter, and you know what? It makes a lot of sense. Peguero, who will be only 22 in June, is a heck of a hitter and he sure proved last season in Salem-Keizer and Augusta.

In 17 games with the Volcanoes last year, Peguero hit .394, and posted a .421 OBP, a .435 wOBA, and an .886 OPS. Furthermore, he also stole seven bases and didn't get caught once. In Augusta, Peguero also performed admirably. In 58 games, he hit .340, and posted a .359 OBP, a .367 wOBA, and a .796 OPS (not bad considering he only had a .437 slugging percentage).

Peguero is an accomplished base stealer who has shown promise on the basepaths since his rookie season. In 2008, the then 20-year-old stole a combined 25 bases (10 in the Arizona Rookie League and 15 in Single-A Augusta) while only getting caught four times (an 86.2 percent success rate).

In addition to being a solid base stealer, Peguero is also a tough out at the plate. Last season in the Northwest League, pitchers were only able to strike Peguero out 12.7 percent of the time, and in Single-A, he only struck out 16.7 percent of the time.

While the numbers aren't extraordinary, they are an improvement from his rookie season. In 2008 in Arizona and Augusta, he struck out 21.3 and 23.9 percent of the time, respectively. Thus, 2009 showed that Peguero made strides in terms of honing his plate discipline.

Peguero also proved to be a solid defender in 2009. In both levels, he averaged a 2.43 RF/G. His RF/G was 11 points higher than Ford's RF/G in San Jose in 2009 (and Peguero also made one less error and one more double play than Ford as well).

Why Peguero May Not Be the Answer for Giants Fans:

As good a hitter as Peguero is in terms of making contact, there are some serious plate discipline issues for the Dominican outfielder. Basically, Peguero can't draw a walk to save his life. In 328 plate appearances last season between Salem Keizer and Augusta, Peguero drew eight walks. (Eight! That's it!) His walk percentage ended up being 3.9 percent for the Volcanoes and 2.0 percent for the Greenjackets, and his BB/K ratios were 0.33 and 0.13 for the Volcanoes and Greenjackets, respectively.

It is understandable that Peguero may not be the best at taking a walk, and if Sandoval has shown Giants fans anything, that isn't necessarily a bad thing (the "Panda" illustrated that you can achieve Minor and Major League success despite low walk numbers ). Yet Peguero doesn't really offer any power, unlike Sandoval, who at least showed a modicum of power in the minors (and a lot more in the Majors).

In 2009, Peguero had a .070 and .097 ISO in Salem Keizer and Augusta, respectively, and he has only had an ISO over .100 once in his minor league career (during his stint in the Arizona Rookie League where it was .124). Thus, without much power to compensate, Peguero needs to get on base to maximize his speed and his meager walk numbers certainly don't make bode well in terms of keeping a solid OBP as he rises through the farm system.

Another sketchy statistic concerning Peguero's 2009 were his high BABIP numbers. In Salem Keizer, Peguero posted a .444 BABIP. In Augusta, he posted a .396 BABIP. Chances are, as he begins the year in Double-A or higher in 2010, he won't be able to post BABIP numbers that high again. They simply are too high to sustain, especially while advancing through the minor leagues.

Thus, the question is this: can Peguero continue to find gaps on balls he puts in play and if he can't (which is inevitable at some point), can he improve his walk numbers enough so he can continue to get on base despite the drop on BABIP?

It could happen, but after a stint this winter in the Dominican Winter League where he hit .284, Peguero did not show much progress in terms of plate patience. In 67 at-bats this winter, Peguero only drew three walks (with one being intentional).

Why Giants Fans Should Expect Big Things from Ford:

Darren Ford is a speed demon on the basepaths. Plain and simple.

In 2006, his first season in Single A, Ford stole 69 bases for the West Virginia Power (the Milwaukee Brewers' Single-A organization). In 2007, in a combined stint with West Virginia and Brevard County (the Brewers' Advanced Single-A organization) he stole 67 bases. In 2008, while playing for Brevard County and San Jose (he was traded to Giants in the Ray Durham deal), he stole 62 bases. And, last season, he stole 35 bases in 101 games for San Jose.

As you can see, Ford has some serious base-stealing potential, not a bad quality considering the Giants' stolen base leader, Randy Winn (who stole 16 bases in 2009) signed with the New York Yankees this offseason.

And yet, stealing bases may not be the only thing Ford does well. Last season, Ford showed that he may be a solid hitter in addition to being a solid baserunner.

In San Jose last season, Ford had a breakout party of sorts at the dish. In 441 plate appearances, Ford hit .300 with a .386 OBP, a .384 wOBA, and an .849 OPS. Furthermore, Ford scored 81 runs (the most he's had at any stint since his 2006 seasons in West Virginia) and added nine home runs, nine triples, and 17 doubles to his offensive resume in 2009. He also continued his solid, patient approach at the plate, as he posted an 11.1 percent walk rate (he hasn't posted a walk rate underneath nine in his professional career) and a 0.51 BB/K ratio.

For fans who miss Rajai Davis but still like what Fred Lewis has to offer to the Giants "free-swinging" offense, Ford may be a combo of both. He is a player that has the speed of Davis but the plate patience of Lewis. He also proved to be solid defensively in 2009, as evidenced by his 2.32 RF/G.

Ford definitely has something to offer for Giants fans of all tastes.

Why Ford May Not Be the Answer for Giants Fans:

Ford killed in Advanced Single-A last year. That being said, he was also 23 at the time, and it was his fourth go-around in Advanced Single-A to boot. So in many ways, Ford was almost an old man beating up on the competition of sorts in 2009, so a lot of his stats (especially his hitting stats) may have to be taken with a grain of salt, especially considering he didn't post a wOBA over .317 in his three previous stints in Advanced Single-A.

Additionally, while his walk rates are promising, his strikeout rates aren't. Ford strikes out a lot, and considering it's only Single-A, that makes a lot of fans wonder how he will fare at the Major League level. Ford has only posted a strikeout rate under 25 percent once in his professional career (24.5 percent in 2007 with Brevard County). And even last year, his breakout year, he still posted a 25.5 percent strikeout rate, and actually posted the lowest BB/K ratio of his four stints in Advanced Single-A.

So how did Ford have such a coming out party? His BABIP greatly increased from his last three stints in Advanced Single-A.

In 2007 and 2008 in Brevard County, Ford posted a .288 and .301 BABIP, respectively. In 2008 in San Jose, his BABIP was .326.

Last year? It was .379, the highest BABIP he's had since 2007, where he had a .427 BABIP with West Virginia.

Thus, with an increase in BABIP, it is predictable that his offensive numbers would improve so dramatically. Yet, like I said about it being his fourth year in Advanced Single-A, Giants fans have to take that BABIP numbers with a grain of salt. The California League (the league San Jose plays in) is notorious for being a "hitter's league," and last year was no exception. A lot of players posted extraordinarily high offensive numbers (especially in BABIP) in their stints for California League teams, only to see their number dip once they advanced to the next level.

One case that doesn't bode well for fans of Ford? Just take a look at Brandon Crawford in 2009 .

In San Jose, Crawford hit like a mad man, posting a .371 average, .445 OBP, .445 wOBA, and a 1.045 OPS. However, his BABIP also happened to be .493 (incredibly high). When he got promoted to Double-A later in the season, his BABIP fell to .334 and his stats feel accordingly. With the Connecticut Defenders, Crawford only hit .258 with a .294 OBP, .299 wOBA, and a .659 OPS.

Does this mean a similar drop off will happen for Ford in 2010 as he advances to Double-A? Maybe, maybe not. Ford is a more disciplined hitter over his career in comparison to Crawford (Crawford only posted BB/K ratios of 0.31 and 0.20 in San Jose and Connecticut, respectively). So that bodes in Ford's favor.

However, while Ford's plate patience is promising, by no means should Giants fans think that Ford will automatically be transitioning his San Jose stats to Double-A and beyond in 2010.

The Verdict?

It's a tough one to call at this point. Right now, I would say it's a dead heat between Peguero and Ford in terms of being the "center fielder of the future" for the Giants, and it will definitely be interesting keeping tabs on these two in Spring Training (go to AZGiants.com for the latest Spring Training bits on the two, as well as Giants Spring Training news in general).

So far, Peguero is better at making contact and hitting for higher average, but Ford is a more patient hitter and a better base stealer. How do you differentiate between the two? It really depends on which qualities you like more from a player as a baseball fan.

Right now, just because I like his Fred Lewis/Rajai Davis hybrid abilities, I am in the Ford camp. However, Peguero is definitely capable of swinging my vote should he be able to improve his walk numbers and keep up his high batting average in 2010.

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Miguel Cabrera: Stephen Strasburg’s Fastball “Like an Explosion”

March 9th, 2010 by Farid Rushdi No comments »

For about half an hour this afternoon, Viera, Florida was the center of the baseball universe.

 

Stephen Strasburg, last season’s top amateur pick, took the mound and for the first time faced veteran major league players and not fuzzy-cheeked prospects.

 

Space Coast Stadium was nearly full. Sports writers from across the nation were in attendance. The game was broadcast live back to Washington.

 

He looked a little nervous.

 

He retired all three batters in the first on grounders, using just seven pitches. The second inning was more difficult, but more impressive too. After easily getting the first two outs, Strasburg gave up back-to-back singles before going 3-0 on second baseman Brent Dlugach.

 

No problem.

 

Two fastballs, both in the upper 90’s, got Strasburg to 3-2.

 

Then came an 81 mph breaking ball (call it whatever you want, a curve, a change, Strasburg calls it a slider) and Dlugach’s knees buckled and the ball dropped off an imaginary table right into Wil Nieves’ mitt.

 

Three outs.

 

Two innings, two hits, no walks, two strikeouts.

 

He pitched well, but how did the writers and scouts see his outing?

 

Phil Wood of MASN.com talked to a scout who said, "His velocity was as advertised...he threw his fastball at 97-98 consistently, 94 a couple of times...he showed me a little deception which I hadn't seen before...his breaking ball was good, but not lights out...his command was okay, he was able to locate his pitches when he had to...he was aggressive...he had a good role model to watch in (Detroit starter Rick) Porcello, who really knows how to pitch...he's the best they've [Washington] got that I've seen this spring...great poise and presence for a kid just out of college."

 

So he pitched well enough but not up to his superstar status, is that about right?

 

Well, not if you ask ESPN, who quoted another scout who said that watching Strasburg throw made it seem as though Detroit's Rick Porcello was playing catch with his sister.

 

Ouch.

 

Miguel Cabrera, who struck out on a 98 mph fastball, was impressed. "What you read about, it's true," Cabrera said afterward. "It's real. He's the kind of pitcher you don't see every day. When he throws the ball, it's like an explosion."

 

Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland called Strasburg’s fastball “electric” but was even more impressed with his breaking ball.

That’s a fairly representative cross-section of what’s being said across the baseball world this morning. Yes, he has the potential for greatness, but no, Tuesday wasn’t his best day as a professional.

He looked just like the pitcher I watched blow away BYU two seasons ago in the first inning but seemed to struggle in the second. He began to labor after giving up the first hit and then began to overthrow after allowing the second.

He wasn’t even close with his first three pitches to Dlugatch. But then he walked off the mound, took a deep breath, and then threw two blazing fastballs before getting him on that wicked breaking ball.

He caught himself throwing too fast, and throwing too hard, and he compensated.

And he was successful.

Several writers have compared Strasburg with Ardolis Chapman, the Cuban defector who signed recently with the Cincinnati Reds (who barely beat out the Nationals for his services).

Chapman pitched on Monday and allowed one hit and a walk in two innings, striking out three Kansas City Royals.

Remember, these were the Royals, not the Detroit Tigers.

Most believed that Chapman was the more impressive pitcher, mainly because three of his pitches topped 100 mph.

They couldn’t be more wrong.

True, Chapman can hit 100 mph seemingly anytime he wants to. But—and this was a concern that many teams shared when he was shopping his services last winter—he doesn’t have a second major league pitch.

Most of his pitches on Monday were fastballs and this early in the spring few hitters are able to turn on triple-digit pitches.

But what happens the next time he takes the mound when those same hitters are sitting on his fastball?

Chapman will strikeout a lot of hitters, but I also think that he’ll give up a lot of runs, especially if he struggles with that second pitch.

I’m beginning to think that Stephen Strasburg isn’t going to be a dominant strikeout pitcher in the mold of Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens.

He doesn’t have to be.

He has four major league pitches, three of them “plus plus.” He doesn’t have to rely on his fastball to get players out like Chapman does. Heck, it’s not even his best pitch.

Against the Tigers, he struck out just two while coaxing four ground ball outs. Not a single fly ball in two innings of work.

Jason Stark of ESPN called Strasburg “economical.” His pitch counts won’t soar into the 130’s as they did with Randy Johnson and will with Ardolis Chapman.

He can strike out 15 in a game if he needs to, but will be just as content to rack up dozens of boring ground balls instead.

No, he didn’t look as impressive as I’d hoped, but he was a lot better than I thought he’d be. He had to take the mound and prove in just two innings that he is worth all of that $15.1 million signing bonus.

And that’s impossible to do.

He lacked command. He got behind on most of the batters he faced. He bounced two or three balls in the dirt.

And yet he dominated veterans like Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera and didn’t give up a run.

If this wasn’t his best, I can’t wait to see what that looks like.

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Milton Bradley: Victim of a Racist City or Not?

March 9th, 2010 by Jake Karmel No comments »

"I was a prisoner in my own city," Milton Bradley told ESPN. But that was not all he said.

He was asked if race played a role in the "city's hatred" for Bradley. The response he gave to ESPN was repulsive.

"I got the same mail Latroy [Hawkins] probably got; the same mail Jacque [Jones] got," he told Colleen Dominguez on ESPN.

News flash Milton: Cubs fans everywhere didn't hate you because you were black. We hated you because you got paid an enormous sum of money and you sucked. You sucked beyond the acceptable level of sucking.

When you are making around $10 million a year and batting .257 with only 12 home runs and 40 RBI, you are more than deserving of the bad treatment you get. You can't even blame injuries on his poor performance; he played 124 games last season. 

Bradley told Dominguez that Cubs fans expect miracles out of their players. If that doesn't happen, you get booed and hate mail. Not true.

Look at the players who have played for the Cubs. The mediocre ones.

Mark DeRosa wasn't making miracles happen on the field. He was a gritty ball player who got the job done. Something Bradley didn't do.

Ronny Cedeno is another good example. He hit .252 in the few years he had with the Cubs. He was awful, but he played a role. He wasn't paid a lot of money and the fans didn't expect much out of him.

Fans expected a lot out of you, Bradley, because of your salary and the great year you had with Texas. We didn't expect miracles.

Also, look at the names he threw out to Dominguez: He said the same mail that Jones and Hawkins got. Both names bring back awful memories and make me cringe.

With the Cubs, Jones actually wasn't bad the first season. No hate mail.

His second season was a different story.

In season number two, 2008, Jones hit a respectable .285 but only had five home runs and 66 RBI. Not good numbers for a major league ball player of the caliber he was supposed to be.

What about Hawkins?

In 2004, Hawkins posted a 5-4 record with a 2.63 ERA. Usually decent numbers for someone who is the middle reliever. Not the closer.

It gets worse.

During his career with the Cubs, Hawkins had 29 saves in 42 opportunities. That's 69 percent! When you are supposed to be the shut-down guy in the back of the pen and you save 69 percent of your saves, you deserve the bad treatment.

Bradley was traded for Carlos Silva in December. This is Bradley's eighth team in 11 years. Bradley claims he has moved around due to injuries. I beg to differ, sir.

In Oakland and Texas he caused trouble. He was thrown out of games and even tried charging the mound a few times.

Chicago was no different. He was suspended on Sept. 20 of last season for the final games of the year. (Best birthday present ever, if you ask me.)

One of the last quotes from Bradley on ESPNChicago.com says that Bradley hints that everyone who booed him was racist. I take offense to that.

I go to a very diverse high school on the south suburbs of Chicago. White people, like myself, are actually either the minority or on their way to being the minority in my school. I am the farthest from being racist.

Milton, please get over yourself and come to your senses. Chicago isn't racist. Chicago Cubs fans aren't racist. Chicago would welcome you back to visit. We won't take you back to play, though, because you just down-right suck.

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Joe Nathan’s Injury Could Give Other Stars a Chance To Shine

March 9th, 2010 by Bryan Curley No comments »

Last season, Joe Nathan saved 47 of Minnesota’s 87 victories.

The All-Star closer will be lucky to get one this year.

Nathan was removed from Saturday’s pre-season contest against the Red Sox after just one batter, citing elbow tightness and soreness. It was originally thought that the discomfort was due to breaking up scar tissue from an October surgery to remove bone chips from the reliever’s elbow, but an MRI showed the damage to be much more severe.

He was diagnosed with a “significant tear” to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, and Tommy John surgery to repair the ligament would cost Nathan his 2010 season.

After learning of the injury’s severity, Nathan had this to say:

"Right now, I want to take it one step at a time. I’m going to work as hard as I can in that week or two to be as strong as I can and hope the arm responds, that it feels good enough to go out there and throw. I don’t want to look past that right now. My thought is I’ll be fine in a week or two and I’ll be ready to go."

Nathan has been the rock of the Twins’ bullpen for the last six seasons, and his lingering injury concerns will have a dramatic impact on his fantasy value. Even if he declares himself ready to go for Opening Day, the grind of a full season is likely to take its toll. It is hard to imagine Nathan putting up numbers close to what he has in past years, and that assumes he is healthy enough to play.

Since arriving in Minnesota, Nathan has used his fastball less and less, instead opting to attack batters with his slider and curveball. Last year, Nathan threw his fastball only 58.9 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate of his career. With a torn elbow ligament, the effectiveness of his slider and curveball should be diminished, and Nathan will have to change the way he approaches batters.

At the very least, it kills his fantasy draft stock.

So, who picks up the save opportunities if Nathan is too injured to play in 2010?

Jon Rauch has closer experience, but he’s only converted 26-of-44 career save chances.

Pat Neshek has been dominant in his short career, compiling an impressive 2.91 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to go along with 10.6 K/9 and a .186 opponents’ batting average, but he missed all of 2009.

Nathan aside, Jesse Crain is Minnesota’s most tenured reliever, but in his six seasons with the team he’s been primarily a seventh inning man. Last year, Crain saw his most appearances in the seventh (22).

Matt Guerrier has led baseball in appearances each of the last two seasons and posted a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last year, making 56 of his 79 appearances in the eighth inning.

And then there’s Jose Mijares . He was Nathan’s other main setup man last year, making 50 of his 74 appearances in the eighth inning and posting a 2.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but Mijares has never saved a game.

Guerrier is probably the next man in line for the Twins’ closer gig given his history and tenure with the team. Mijares is deserving as well, but his lack of experience will likely hurt his candidacy.

Of course, no official statement will be made until Nathan is declared unable to play in 2010, since he is arguably the third most recognizable name on the team’s roster (behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau ).

Either way, if you’re going to take a risk on Nathan after he falls several rounds, make sure you grab his backup to ensure you have a closer for when Nathan inevitably misses time.

For more fantasy baseball news and commentary, check out Baseball Professor .

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Joe Nathan Fallout: Top 15 Fantasy Baseball Closers for 2010

March 9th, 2010 by Eric Stashin No comments »

By now we’ve all heard about the injury to Joe Nathan, which has the potential to end his 2010 campaign before it even begins.  According to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minnesota Star-Tribune (click here for the full article):

“While surgery certainly looks to be imminent, Nathan will take two weeks to let the swelling in the area subside. He’ll work with the trainers to strengthen the muscles around the elbow. And then he will try to pitch. He’s prepared to pitch in pain—given the huge expectations placed on the 2010 Twins—and is prepared to tests the limits of his tolerance level.”

Only then will we know for sure that he’s going to miss the entire year due to Tommy John Surgery.  At this point, if you are drafting over the next two weeks, you have to ask yourself if you are willing to take the gamble on Nathan (who was previously the second ranked closer on my rankings) and if he’s going to pitch.

Let’s first take a look at how this news shuffles the rankings:

  1. Jonathan Broxton—Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Mariano Rivera—New York Yankees
  3. Joakim Soria—Kansas City Royals
  4. Jonathan Papelbon—Boston Red Sox
  5. Francisco Rodriguez—New York Mets
  6. Heath Bell—San Diego Padres
  7. Brian Wilson—San Francisco Giants
  8. Jose Valverde—Detroit Tigers
  9. Billy Wagner—Atlanta Braves
  10. Huston Street—Colorado Rockies
  11. Andrew Bailey—Oakland Athletics
  12. Frank Francisco—Texas Rangers
  13. Trevor Hoffman—Milwaukee Brewers
  14. Rafael Soriano—Tampa Bay Rays
  15. Francisco Cordero—Cincinnati Reds

Nathan is just too good of a pitcher to completely ignore at this point.  With the potential for him to still pitch, even at 70 percent, he’s still worth taking the flyer on in all formats in the last few rounds of your draft.  Unfortunately, that’s not enough to keep him in the Top 15.

I certainly wouldn’t ignore him, however, until the news breaks that he is officially out for the entire 2010 season.  According to Mock Draft Central, there are 21 relief pitchers with ADPs in the first 200.  After that, why not take the gamble on Nathan, backing him up with Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier?  When you are drafting guys at that point, you are concerned about them losing their job anyway, right?

What are your thoughts?  Would you take the gamble on Nathan?  What are the chances he actually pitches?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

Make sure to check out our 2010 yearly league rankings:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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2010 MLB Predictions: Can the Cardinals Dominate More Than the NL Central?

March 9th, 2010 by Jesse Motiff No comments »

Barring an injury that keeps Albert Pujols out of the line-up for any significant amount of time, the St. Louis Cardinals are the prohibited favorites to win the NL Central again this year.

Entering the 2010 season, the Cardinals top the division in several important factors. They have the best player (Pujols), the best catcher (Yadier Molina), the best manager (Tony LaRussa), the best starting rotation, and the best fans.

They also signed the biggest free agent, when Matt Holliday decided to remain in St. Louis for the next seven seasons for $120 million. Many feel his signing was vital to the team trying to keep Pujols long-term.

Other than those important pieces, the rest of the team could walk down any street in the country in relative obscurity. That just further speaks to the importance of both Pujols and LaRussa to the success of the team.

Oh, the Cardinals also hired a new hitting coach, some guy named McGwire. It was a great public relations move for the team by bringing back one of the team's most popular players, but it will be hard for him not to be a distraction to the team on the road.

McGwire and the rest of the team can say all they want that he won't be a distraction, but it's hard to imagine the club won't hear a ton of questions about steroids on the road. The same questions over and over for six straight months will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on both McGwire and the team.

The offense struggled last year prior to Holliday's arrival from Oakland. He gives Pujols great protection in the line-up. The duo should form one of the top one-two offensive combinations in all of baseball. Eighty home runs and 250 RBI aren't completely out of the question for the pair.

The top of the order will need to continue to get on base for them to put up such eye-popping numbers. Conversely, the bottom of the order needs to clean up whatever Pujols and Holliday can't drive in. Molina and either Ryan Ludwick or Colby Rasmus must produce to keep opponents from pitching around the three and four hitters.

Felipe Lopez was brought in recently, and he could very easily turn into the signing of the winter. He is versatile enough to play multiple positions in both the infield and outfield. At the plate, he could join Skip Schumaker at the top of the order creating issues on the bases for pitching staffs around the league.

The starting rotation has very few concerns going into the season. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright finished two and three respectively in the Cy Young voting last year. Like their hitting counterparts, they form one of the best duos in the game and give the Cards a great chance of winning two out of every five days.

Kyle Lohse will need to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2009 and return to the success he had in 2008 when he won 15 games.

Brad Penny was signed as a free agent to take the place of the departing Joel Pineiro. Pitching coach Dave Duncan is salivating over Penny, who returned to his former All-Star form with the Giants after a disappointing stint with the Red Sox. He went 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six starts in San Francisco last year.

Penny, with Duncan's help, should continue his success in the National League this year. That would give the team three very good pitchers atop their rotation.

The team is still searching for a fifth starter. In recent days, there has been rumblings about the possible addition of either John Smoltz or Pedro Martinez. Either would fit well into the rotation, and if they are healthy, could give the Cardinals the best rotation in all of baseball.

The bullpen is the weakest part of the team, by far.

Ryan Franklin stepped in as the team's closer last year and finished with a career-high 38 saves. The first time All-Star struggled down the stretch, blowing three saves in September.

If Franklin struggles at any point again this year, they don't have anyone with significant experience as a closer to step in. Jason Motte projects as a future closer, but he struggled last season after Franklin beat him out for the job.

A trade for a closer or an established reliever or two will be the most likely trade the team will make this year.

The Cardinals went from having a very good farm system last year, to one of the worst this year. That will happen when trading away six of your top 30 prospects. The most notable losses were third baseman Brett Wallace and reliever Chris Perez. The Cardinals are a veteran team, and they won't get noticeably younger any time in the near future.

There is enough talent on the roster for the Cardinals to win the NL Central in fairly easy fashion this year. Both Milwaukee and Chicago will challenge, but neither can match the starting rotation of St. Louis.

Winning a division title may be fine for most teams, but it won't be acceptable in St. Louis. After a horrible playoff exit last October against the Dodgers, the Cardinals need to win in October.

They are clearly the second best team in the league next to the Phillies, and the two teams should meet to determine the league's representative in the World Series. Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright can carry them that far. To go any further, Franklin and his cronies in the bullpen will have to step up and prove themselves against the league's reigning kings.

 

To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here .

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